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Run in analysis from Experimental 361
- Thread starter Couldn't Be Hyypia
- Start date
erkan
Well-known member
Which result? 361 correctly predicted Bristol's win against overrated Huddersfield...
No model will predict very accurately but they do OK.
As commented elsewhere it seems Reading got away with it again a bit last night - but tha' fooball, ees not eessy...
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Medwayseagull
JCB
Is that a picture of Norwood in his Reading kit ? Not sure that augurs well for any accuracy in the rest of their stats for this season.
Coldeanseagull
Opinionated
These sort of things go a long way to keeping us all sane and composed. If we didn't have the distraction of reading spreadsheets, form books and computer analysis, the apprehension of waiting for a 5.30pm kickoff would lead to a greater majority inbibing to excess and therefore unable to fully enjoy the game
Peter Grummit
Well-known member
Swapped messages with Ben who runs @Experimental361. His expected goals model projects that we have an 89.8% chance of taking the title.
PG
PG
dolphins
Well-known member
Not a bad percentage chance, PG... let's hope it holds true. I would seriously LOVE IT if we clinched it at the Brizzle game...
I have it somewhere roughly like this:
For the Albion to NOT clinch the title, needs us to fail to beat Bristol City (at about 40% probability) and to fail to beat Villa (at about 60%) and Newcastle to beat Cardiff (70%) and Barnsley (85%).
0.4 x 0.6 x 0.7 x 0.85 = 14% probability of ALL those things happening, thus 86% chance of getting over the line
erkan
Well-known member
60% chance of beating Bristol is low. What % of all our home games against the bottom half have we won so far?
83% w19 d3 l1
I would LOVE IT if we clinched it on Friday. Although I'd be delighted with a draw on Friday.
dolphins
Well-known member
Good point - would be a tad calmer going into Saturday's game if it was already in the bag, although the celebrations might not be as marked...
A draw on Friday would mean we just need a point, but we're still not champions before the game. Can we all agree on a draw on Friday being a good thing?
dolphins
Well-known member
Yes, hadn't realised that; mind on other things clearly! Draw on Friday would be good...
I'm not fussed either way - a win against City and/or against Villa shouldn't be beyond us.
Not beyond us, but winning neither is hardly unthinkable is it.
Possibly but it's in our own hands and I really don't think they'll fail now.