Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[The Wizard]

Five weeks gives enough time for any change in circumstance to register in terms of number of cases and hospitalisations, thats how long it will take to judge. If the government grants a set of easing measures if in 5 weeks time it has not resulted in an increase in cases and hospitalisations we can be cofnident that we can then open up the next set of measures.

And yet last year, without a vaccine that stops 93% of deaths occurring, it was 3 weekly and cases continued to fall all through summer until September. Makes sense.

 

[crodonilson]

And yet last year, without a vaccine that stops 93% of deaths occurring, it was 3 weekly and cases continued to fall all through summer until September. Makes sense.

With a variant that was 50-70% less transmissible and with the benefit of summer (nothing was relaxed until June), we're still in Winter and I'd be amazed if Spring is as kind to us weather wise this year. Plus the vaccine has only been currently distributed to a quarter of the population, there are plenty of vulnerable people still out there and many millions of vectors of transmission.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

So over 60’s equate for 93% of coronavirus deaths, if the vaccine does work to the % they are saying (85-95% efficacy) we will have reduced deaths at around the middle of next month by circa 80% (assuming 3/4 weeks to build immunity from jabs) and that’s WITHOUT the fact that 25% of people tested positive for antibodies before the vaccine came in in December, it’s a huge % of the population who will be immune and yet we are facing another 3/4 months before hospitality can open or 2 months before someone can get a HAIR CUT?

Please tell me how anyone can explain that logically and even then it will still require the same SD, masks and measures as last summer?

I’m really worried we are entering a world where the government can say we are allowed to meet up with one other household in a park and actually think we are being ‘given’ a freedom back, it’s disturbing. The goalposts have been moved so many times, everything was pinned on the vaccine which has gone stunningly well, yet we find ourselves MILES behind other countries freedom wise, most european countries didn’t close schools and we find ourselves at least another 2 months until our freedoms MIGHT match Italy, France etc

I’m truly hoping this is a case of promise little and over deliver, as I’ve reached the end of my tether.

The more the virus circulates during the vaccination period, the more chance there is that mutations arise that can beat the vaccine.

This is a really really critical time, because the virus will be meeting more and more vaccinated people as we roll the program out, and thus any mutations that allow it to get through the vaccines defences will multiply and its genetics selected for. The more infections there are, the more mutations will occur, more vaccinated people exposed and the more chance that a successful mutation will arise and become established. If we don't try and control that we'd be one big petri dish experiment. The ultimate risk is the vaccine becomes ineffective and drags us back into future lockdown. All for the sake of a few weeks now. We need to get numbers down as tiny as possible at soon as possible.

I wrote this earlier but you may have missed it. If we want to minimise risk of the vaccine not being effective we really really need to get control of the virus whilst we are rolling it out. If there are mutations that can allow the virus to get round the vaccine (and it seems there are, judging by the South American variant) then they are very likely to become established if vaccinated people are continually being exposed to the virus. We can relax when 60% plus of the total population are vaccinated, not at the 25% stage where we are now.

As Jeff Goldblum once said "nature finds a way"

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

And yet last year, without a vaccine that stops 93% of deaths occurring, it was 3 weekly and cases continued to fall all through summer until September. Makes sense.

And what happened next ?
It would be incredibly irresponsible to risk the vaccination programme.

 

[The Wizard]

I wrote this earlier but you may have missed it. If we want to minimise risk of the vaccine not being effective we really really need to get control of the virus whilst we are rolling it out. If there are mutations that can allow the virus to get round the vaccine (and it seems there are, judging by the South American variant) then they are very likely to become established if vaccinated people are continually being exposed to the virus.

As Jeff Goldblum once said "nature finds a way"

There is no evidence the vaccine is ineffective in preventing severe COVID for any known variant. Besides this, even Hancock said the Kent variant is so dominant that any other variant will really struggle to become the dominant one.

You can’t plan our exit strategy around the possibility there might be a new variant, it’s a virus it’s always going to mutate.

 

[The Wizard]

And what happened next ?
It would be incredibly irresponsible to risk the vaccination programme.

A respiratory virus spread more as the weather got colder, what a shocking turn of events.

I genuinely can’t believe people are still on board with the nonsense this government come out with.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

Yes, was going to make this point in relation to worries about R and mutation.

Lockdowns were only ever to save lives (not *all* lives, which is impossible) and protect the NHS. Hospitalization should be the canary in the mine - yes it will be about a two week lag but it's perfectly feasible (science folk, correct me if I'm wrong) that a vaccine resistant strain may need to have less severe outcomes in people to be successful. Otherwise it becomes a game of whack-a-mole with increasingly fewer moles and more hammers.

Selfish gene theory. The virus' genes just 'want' to reproduce. They don't 'care' about anything else. If the vaccine stops the virus reproducing then *any* mutation that allows it to reproduce will succeed. Survival of the fittest. If that same mutation causes incredibly high host mortality before reproduction then it itself will die out or mutate, but that will be secondary and occur after the first mutation has taken hold, and it will for sure keep the vaccine - busting elements of its code.

 

[LamieRobertson]

And what happened next ?
It would be incredibly irresponsible to risk the vaccination programme.

What happened next was a second wave much much later WITHOUT A VACCINE..three weekly seems in my joe public opinion more reasonable

 

[Deleted member 22389]

A respiratory virus spread more as the weather got colder, what a shocking turn of events.

I genuinely can’t believe people are still on board with the nonsense this government come out with.

It's not nonsense if you lose a loved one to Covid. I'm on board, I will continue to be sensible, keep my distance and follow the advice.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1363876582595698693?s=20

Mapped out well here>

 

[BBassic]

A respiratory virus spread more as the weather got colder, what a shocking turn of events.

I genuinely can’t believe people are still on board with the nonsense this government come out with.

I bleedin' hate this government but it's their job to listen to the advice and to make the rules. It's our job to follow them.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

There is no evidence the vaccine is ineffective in preventing severe COVID for any known variant. Besides this, even Hancock said the Kent variant is so dominant that any other variant will really struggle to become the dominant one.

You can’t plan our exit strategy around the possibility there might be a new variant, it’s a virus it’s always going to mutate.

Well you've summed it up yourself in two very prescient sentences. 1.the vaccine is effective at stopping known variants in the UK and 2. Viruses will always mutate.

Put them together. The vaccine is putting severe selection pressures on our UK variants. That's what drives evolution. Viruses will evolve in the face of severe selection pressures. Why give them the chance of doing so successfully?

You can plan an exit strategy that way. If there is no virus, it can't mutate.

One hope I suppose is that the dominant vaccine beating mutation, if it arises, isn't deadly. But again, why take the chance?

 

[A1X]

And yet last year, without a vaccine that stops 93% of deaths occurring, it was 3 weekly and cases continued to fall all through summer until September. Makes sense.

If you don't want to see the results of what happened after September, look away now...

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If you don't want to see the results of what happened after September, look away now...

We didnt have a vaccine last sept, I am not sure you can compare the 2.

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

Starmer looks dapper in Tory blue

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

Living in a flat immediately wipes off half of those options.

But you exemplify my point - if those things are acceptable, why can't golf, tennis, cricket, basketball or even football be allowed back?

Straight away this would improve the health and wellbeing of millions who are currently unable to do these things.

COVID has highlighted how unhealthy this country is. Lots of underlying reasons but at least get some of the safer sports up and running ASAP.

 

[LamieRobertson]

We didnt have a vaccine last sept, I am not sure you can compare the 2.

Exactly....it’s all about the vaccine stupid ..to adapt a well known phrase ...

Enough from me now as I’d like to have a bit of escapism and start thinking about tonight

Ps I’m really pleased the kids can go back to school ..brilliant news
Bring June on ..glad they’ve said zero COVID is not realistic...we look ahead with hope

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

https://twitter.com/MrHarryCole/status/1363876582595698693?s=20

Mapped out well here>

 

[HalfaSeatOn]

Never mind future, son still tied up in the current lock down roadmap - still waiting for his business support grant from Brighton and Hove. Heard other authorities released much quicker.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

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Cheers Sugarbear