Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[Thunder Bolt]

He confused getting all category 1-4's done by mid February with getting all category 1-9's done by mid April.

Basic stuff... and he's in charge

Twice. He said it on Sky and again on the Beeb. It's almost like he hasn't read his brief properly.

 

[Swansman]

Golf is a tad more popular than accordion concerts...different with you Swedes?

Not sure... ask me when I'm 60.

 

[RossyG]

I'll be bloody hairy if it's true.

I already am. I’ll be Captain Caveman by May.

 

[RossyG]

Not sure... ask me when I'm 60.

Ok. When are you 60?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

 

[A1X]

I think a wait after school reopening makes absolute sense (to divert from majority opinion on here), as I mentioned previously I think this is the real big risk factor and if things can be maintained to a manageable level as a result of this then things after that can get speeded up as appropriate as they'll be less risky. There's been a strong correlation between school reopenings and waves starting up both times it's happened previously.

 

[WATFORD zero]

Golf is a tad more popular than accordion concerts...different with you Swedes?

Speak for yourself

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UJx5GJFyy9Q

 

[LamieRobertson]

I've seen a couple of articles but I am still feeling very cautious about it. I will feel safer when I've had my second jab.

There are quite a few but I’m all for personal choice

 

[Sussexscots]

Being cautious, I understand.

I’m sorry but this isn’t caution, it’s unexplainable why its going to be another 2/3 or even 4 months until you can get a haircut or go to restaurant yet countries all over the world are already doing this without potentially near 50% of its population immune and with a LOWER death and infection rate than us. This country is going to be in absolute ruin by June, when they MIGHT give us the rule of six back.

Vaccines were the way out, we were told, yet we face the exact same restrictions as last year at an even slower time scale WITH all of our over 60’s immune to the virus and a fairly high proportion of the general population with natural immunity? It makes no sense.

I've lost all optimism now. I don't foresee a time when we shall ever be free of restrictions, grim warnings about new variants & overwhelmed hospitals and howling jeremaiads in the press demanding another lockdown.

Now that lockdowns have been legitimized as a tool of government control, we face a bleak future where everyones life, livelihood and the freedoms we have always taken for granted can be seized by fiat power.

In these circumstances, who is going to want to take on a pub or open a restaurant? Who will want to finance a play or a film when your venue can be closed down overnight for an indefinite period. Which football clubs, Rugby clubs, Cricket clubs-even counties will go to the wall? And Gyms? God knows this country needs the exercise.

I fear we are on the cusp of the end of the arts and hospitality as we have known it. It's clear that, for the foreseeable future, our lives will be spent subject to, and contingent upon, the smooth operation of the NHS.

 

[CheeseRolls]

I've seen a couple of articles but I am still feeling very cautious about it. I will feel safer when I've had my second jab.

None of this is straight forward.

Astra Zeneca I would not be overly worried about waiting 12 weeks for the second jab. The mRNA vaccines, I would realy want to know where the evidence is to support this.

Just like IDIOTS are entitled to decline the vaccine, no one is going to force you to break your own individual isolation. If you feel safer waiting x weeks after your 2nd jab surely that is entirely in your own control is it not?

 

[Cheshire Cat]

Being cautious, I understand.

I’m sorry but this isn’t caution, it’s unexplainable why its going to be another 2/3 or even 4 months until you can get a haircut or go to restaurant yet countries all over the world are already doing this without potentially near 50% of its population immune and with a LOWER death and infection rate than us. This country is going to be in absolute ruin by June, when they MIGHT give us the rule of six back.

Vaccines were the way out, we were told, yet we face the exact same restrictions as last year at an even slower time scale WITH all of our over 60’s immune to the virus and a fairly high proportion of the general population with natural immunity? It makes no sense.

I suspect it is because they cocked up so badly last time when they eased restrictions and the infection levels jumped (surprise, surprise), so they are now panicked in case it doesn't work again, and are being over-cautious just in case.

Boris Johnson quotes - re lockdowns

On 19 March, four days before the first national lockdown was announced:

I think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country.

On 23 March, announcing the first full lockdown:

I can assure you that we will keep these restrictions under constant review. We will look again in three weeks, and relax them if the evidence shows we are able to.

On 10 May, announcing the easing of the first lockdown

It is thanks to your effort and sacrifice in stopping the spread of this disease that the death rate is coming down … It would be madness now to throw away that achievement by allowing a second spike.

On 17 July at a press conference:

It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest.

In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph published on 19 July:

I can’t abandon that tool [a second lockdown] any more than I would abandon a nuclear deterrent. But it is like a nuclear deterrent, I certainly don’t want to use it. And nor do I think we will be in that position again.

In a TV address to the nation on 22 September, announcing early closing for pubs:

If we were forced into a new national lockdown, that would threaten not just jobs and livelihoods but the loving human contact on which we all depend … We must do all we can to avoid going down that road again.

In a statement to MPs on 12 October, announcing the three-tier alert system:

This is not how we want to live our lives, but this is the narrow path we have to tread between the social and economic trauma of a full lockdown and the massive human and, indeed, economic cost of an uncontained epidemic.

So that all gone according to plan, and without a hitch.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

None of this is straight forward.

Astra Zeneca I would not be overly worried about waiting 12 weeks for the second jab. The mRNA vaccines, I would realy want to know where the evidence is to support this.

Just like IDIOTS are entitled to decline the vaccine, no one is going to force you to break your own individual isolation. If you feel safer waiting x weeks after your 2nd jab surely that is entirely in your own control is it not?

I want to end my isolation as I'm desperate to see my kids, and grandkids. I had the Pfizer jab and Pfizer themselves recommended the three week gap.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Robert Peston
@Peston
·
58m
Secondary school children will be required to wear masks in the classroom as well as in corridors, I understand - as I just mentioned on
@itvnews
Lunchtime News

 

[Poojah]

I suspect it is because they cocked up so badly last time when they eased restrictions and the infection levels jumped (surprise, surprise), so they are now panicked in case it doesn't work again, and are being over-cautious just in case.

Boris Johnson quotes - re lockdowns

On 19 March, four days before the first national lockdown was announced:

I think, looking at it all, that we can turn the tide within the next 12 weeks and I’m absolutely confident that we can send coronavirus packing in this country.

On 23 March, announcing the first full lockdown:

I can assure you that we will keep these restrictions under constant review. We will look again in three weeks, and relax them if the evidence shows we are able to.

On 10 May, announcing the easing of the first lockdown

It is thanks to your effort and sacrifice in stopping the spread of this disease that the death rate is coming down … It would be madness now to throw away that achievement by allowing a second spike.

On 17 July at a press conference:

It is my strong and sincere hope that we will be able to review the outstanding restrictions and allow a more significant return to normality from November at the earliest.

In an interview with the Sunday Telegraph published on 19 July:

I can’t abandon that tool [a second lockdown] any more than I would abandon a nuclear deterrent. But it is like a nuclear deterrent, I certainly don’t want to use it. And nor do I think we will be in that position again.

In a TV address to the nation on 22 September, announcing early closing for pubs:

If we were forced into a new national lockdown, that would threaten not just jobs and livelihoods but the loving human contact on which we all depend … We must do all we can to avoid going down that road again.

In a statement to MPs on 12 October, announcing the three-tier alert system:

This is not how we want to live our lives, but this is the narrow path we have to tread between the social and economic trauma of a full lockdown and the massive human and, indeed, economic cost of an uncontained epidemic.

So that all gone according to plan, and without a hitch.

What I would take from each of those respective quotes, is that we didn't know what we didn't know. They each look absolutely ludicrous in retrospect (the first one especially so), but I don't recall them being widely ridiculed on the day they were originally uttered.

At the outset we had no idea just how widespread the virus already was in this country, or how the nature of its infection and transmissibility was to render even a competent track and trace system (as used in most 'traditional' epidemics) completely ineffective. In the summer, we didn't know about the impact of new variants and how that would move the goalposts in terms of the role children and therefore schools would have on transmission.

Decisions were made, optimistically, based on the lay of the land as it appeared at the time. With fingers and toes crossed. What we've since learned is that optimism without certainty is not helpful and invariably leads to decisions which look bad with the benefit of hindsight.

The roadmap reads to me like there has been an acknowledgement that 'certainty' is not a tool we are going to have in our armoury for some time, and as such in spite of an increasingly positive picture, the next best thing available to us is 'caution'. I don't take this as a suggestion that we are going to end up in some endless cycle of lockdown, or that the government is using the situation to flex its muscles on society and increase the power it has over us all.

As in March of last year, we still don't know what we don't know. With that in mind, learning from our past mistakes and taking a calm and considered approach seems absolutely the right way forward, even if it's not very exciting. And don't underestimate how much I fancy a pint, either.

 

[crodonilson]

I think we should feel confident from what is going to come out is this is the last national lockdown, at least until much later in the year and only then if another variant comes around which renders the vaccine all but useless (not impossible but unlikely), what we can expect to see is local lockdowns where transmission rates spike and/or there are variants of concern. Which makes it all the more important takeup of the vaccines are high as the early signs are that they DO stop much transmission of the virus. If everyone is sensible and follows the rules and the continued social distancing guidelines we can be confident that lockdowns such as the one we are in now may be gone for good and other less invasive restrictions will come to the fore to help battle the virus alongside the vaccination programme.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

What I would take from each of those respective quotes, is that we didn't know what we didn't know. They each look absolutely ludicrous in retrospect (the first one especially so), but I don't recall them being widely ridiculed on the day they were originally uttered.

At the outset we had no idea just how widespread the virus already was in this country, or how the nature of its infection and transmissibility was to render even a competent track and trace system (as used in most 'traditional' epidemics) completely ineffective. In the summer, we didn't know about the impact of new variants and how that would move the goalposts in terms of the role children and therefore schools would have on transmission.

Decisions were made, optimistically, based on the lay of the land as it appeared at the time. With fingers and toes crossed. What we've since learned is that optimism without certainty is not helpful and invariably leads to decisions which look bad with the benefit of hindsight.

The roadmap reads to me like there has been an acknowledgement that 'certainty' is not a tool we are going to have in our armoury for some time, and as such in spite of an increasingly positive picture, the next best thing available to us is 'caution'. I don't take this as a suggestion that we are going to end up in some endless cycle of lockdown, or that the government is using the situation to flex its muscles on society and increase the power it has over us all.

As in March of last year, we still don't know what we don't know. With that in mind, learning from our past mistakes and taking a calm and considered approach seems absolutely the right way forward, even if it's not very exciting. And don't underestimate how much I fancy a pint, either.

The very first case in Britain was local ie in Hove. A doctor went skiing during February half term holiday. He self isolated and his surgery in Hollingbury was closed down for a fortnight. The NHS and government were alerted but ignored the warnings.
The government were warned about letting all the Spanish fans in for the Liverpool game in March when it could be seen that Italy and Spain were struggling with all their infections. Cheltenham went ahead despite warnings. Warnings that fell on deaf ears.

Eat Out to Help Out caused a 17% rise in infections. We are still struggling with the Christmas infections.

 

[McTavish]

listening to it he means Febuary. inquiring minds might ask whats happening in mid-April thats on his mind.

Yes, and he must mean over 70s rather than over 50s. We've all made mistakes but to make the same fundamental mistakes twice does seem very odd.

He seemed incredibly nervous as well - I think you're right about something else on his mind.

 

[The Wizard]

FIVE weeks between each lifting? Remember when they said ‘data would be the driver, not exact dates’

More lies.

 

[Neville's Breakfast]

Being cautious, I understand.

I’m sorry but this isn’t caution, it’s unexplainable why its going to be another 2/3 or even 4 months until you can get a haircut or go to restaurant yet countries all over the world are already doing this without potentially near 50% of its population immune and with a LOWER death and infection rate than us. This country is going to be in absolute ruin by June, when they MIGHT give us the rule of six back.

Vaccines were the way out, we were told, yet we face the exact same restrictions as last year at an even slower time scale WITH all of our over 60’s immune to the virus and a fairly high proportion of the general population with natural immunity? It makes no sense.

I read an article this morning that may explain. Something to do with being in the midst of the vaccination programme with its impact on immune systems being a breeding ground for new variants. If we have to wait then it isn’t incompetence or malevolence. There will be a reason to do with managing public health. It’s easy to express outrage when you don’t have the job of managing the pandemic. I had a stroke last year and nearly died. Covid comes with high risk of strokes and if I get another one it will likely be fatal or survival in a bad state. There are still many like me unvaccinated and given the 3 week lag in its effect it makes more sense to be cautious rather than risk a 3rd wave of a mutation which is vaccine resistant.

 

[crodonilson]

FIVE weeks between each lifting? Remember when they said ‘data would be the driver, not exact dates’

More lies.

Five weeks gives enough time for any change in circumstance to register in terms of number of cases and hospitalisations, thats how long it will take to judge. If the government grants a set of easing measures if in 5 weeks time it has not resulted in an increase in cases and hospitalisations we can be cofnident that we can then open up the next set of measures.