Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[darkwolf666]

I appreciate how much you've been through. Anyone who has followed your posts must have. And I have no desire to upset you with this, but I suspect I might. Nevertheless, I feel it needs to be said on this thread.

I've spent the vast majority of my working life working with specialist tools for insurers and have spent a lot of time with actuaries. Those who work in the Life Protection sector particular have the job of working out how statistically likely it is you will die or get a critical illness soon after taking out a policy. And, before Covid existed, those things tended to be age, BMI and history of critical disease.

It's no exaggeration to say that once you are vaccinated, all the current data points to you once again being at risk from the other thing that is scaring you, and not covid at all. From your age, BMI or underlying condition. Which is more or less where we were when things were normal.

Is that slight additional risk and worry, perhaps around 8% looking at the AZ data, really worth losing a whole generation of children's education, destroying the university system, culture, music and art, the hospitality and travel industry, lower league football, and risking our species becoming one that has forgotten how to adequately socialise?

Er, no upset to me GB, me and the missus feel we have faced off death once, so quite fancy our chances once both vaccinated...

Having said that, my original point stands, there are plenty of people worried about what is going to happen, irrational fears or not!

 

[sparkie]

I still see no reason to send the schools back before the loomimg Easter holidays and not use those 3 weeks to really 'help out to hammer the virus'.

 

[e77]

There needs to be a gradual and methodical and as much as possible not timetable based (not always possible as you can't ask the schools to open with 24 hours notice) but on the infection rate and hospitalisations being reduced as the vaccine covers more and more of us loosening of restrictions.

I would have thought it very likely there will be a rise when the schools go back as no children and most teachers haven't had the vaccine. Although this hopefully won't lead to a massive spike in infections we have to see what happens first before any further lifting of restrictions (plus of course more vaccinations will take place).

I am hoping Monday won't be much more than a batting order of how restrictions will be lifted with no more than guideline dates attached.

 

[Guinness Boy]

I still see no reason to send the schools back before the loomimg Easter holidays and not use those 3 weeks to really 'help out to hammer the virus'.

There are rumours it'll be year group based. Those preparing for key exams next year and those in early years where you can stay behind all the way through if you start behind, certainly need to go back asap.

For the other years it makes sense, kids and teachers wise, to wait until after Easter.

However, I hate to think how many parents trying to juggle working from home and home schooling will be totally burnt out and depressed by then. Have you considered that?

 

[e77]

There are rumours it'll be year group based. Those preparing for key exams next year and those in early years where you can stay behind all the way through if you start behind, certainly need to go back asap.

For the other years it makes sense, kids and teachers wise, to wait until after Easter.

However, I hate to think how many parents trying to juggle working from home and home schooling will be totally burnt out and depressed by then. Have you considered that?

I have worked with people who are home schooling children and they have to disappear for half the day. Not much choice at the moment but it isn's sustainable long term.

 

[Billy the Fish]

those in early years where you can stay behind all the way through if you start behind, certainly need to go back asap.

I was chatting to a mate last week and he's quite worried about his 5 year old, told me he's just sad all the time and started lashing out occasionally, which he never did at all last year. He desperately needs to go back to school.

A month is a very long time for young children, IMHO it shouldn't be delayed 1 second longer than it really needs to.

 

[sparkie]

There are rumours it'll be year group based. Those preparing for key exams next year and those in early years where you can stay behind all the way through if you start behind, certainly need to go back asap.

For the other years it makes sense, kids and teachers wise, to wait until after Easter.

However, I hate to think how many parents trying to juggle working from home and home schooling will be totally burnt out and depressed by then. Have you considered that?

Yes. I have weighed up the being frazzled for 3 more weeks against hammering virus chains and saving a number of deaths and grieving families.

I am all for schools going back after Easter. I have my head in my hands thinking of them being rushed back for the sake of 3 weeks.


I gather Whitty isn't happy about it and they need to find a fudge of words which he will sign off on. I'm in his camp.

 

[crodonilson]

Yes. I have weighed up the being frazzled for 3 more weeks against hammering virus chains and saving a number of deaths and grieving families.

I am all for schools going back after Easter. I have my head in my hands thinking of them being rushed back for the sake of 3 weeks.


I gather Whitty isn't happy about it and they need to find a fudge of words which he will sign off on. I'm in his camp.

I agree. It seems most of scientists are bamboozled by BJs desperate attempts to get schools back on 8th March after he foolishly announced that a several weeks ago.

Perhaps we can see primary schools return on that date and then we can review the data on what it does to the R rate and then it will be 5 weeks between them and the start of the we term, then and only then if the data supports it we can see secondary schools go back in a staggered manner and then we can review that data before deciding if it is safe to open non essential retail and hospitality with social distancing guidelines through May and June.

 

[Guinness Boy]

Yes. I have weighed up the being frazzled for 3 more weeks against hammering virus chains and saving a number of deaths and grieving families.

I am all for schools going back after Easter. I have my head in my hands thinking of them being rushed back for the sake of 3 weeks.


I gather Whitty isn't happy about it and they need to find a fudge of words which he will sign off on. I'm in his camp.

I agree. It seems most of scientists are bamboozled by BJs desperate attempts to get schools back on 8th March after he foolishly announced that a several weeks ago.

Perhaps we can see primary schools return on that date and then we can review the data on what it does to the R rate and then it will be 5 weeks between them and the start of the we term, then and only then if the data supports it we can see secondary schools go back in a staggered manner and then we can review that data before deciding if it is safe to open non essential retail and hospitality with social distancing guidelines through May and June.

I don't see data supporting either of your arguments. Could you provide it?

The data I know about suggests hospitalisations down by half in exactly a month, cases and deaths dropping by nearly 25% a week and millions and millions of the most vulnerable vaccinated. Can you tell me what change there would be simply by reopening schools in early March?

 

[darkwolf666]

I don't see data supporting either of your arguments. Could you provide it?

The data I know about suggests hospitalisations down by half in exactly a month, cases and deaths dropping by nearly 25% a week and millions and millions of the most vulnerable vaccinated. Can you tell me what change there would be simply by reopening schools in early March?

Clearly there is no data to cover the things you suggest, but there is historical data from last year when the schools returned in early September...

First September 1927 cases in England
First October 11305 cases in England

That’s a 486% increase in cases in the first month of schools returning after first National lockdown. There was also a 300% increase in hospitalisations during the same period.

No, all that increase can’t solely be attributed to schools, but you can understand the reticence of some to have an “all back to school” on the same day policy.

A staggered start, with the two week Easter holiday 3 weeks later, would give the perfect opportunity to assess the data and make sure they’ve got things right... it seems a small price to pay for the possibility of ****ing things up - again!

 

[Springal]

Suggestion the FA have offered UEFA to host the Euros with fans in stadiums. Perhaps part of the lateral flow ramp up that is being discussed as a workable solution.

Could work and if they didn’t allow travelling fans

 

[Bozza]

Moving this over to the main board temporarily, as it will be very much in focus tomorrow. Stuff across the media tonight suggesting a cautious four-point plan on releasing lockdown, based on:

Vaccination rollout
Effectiveness
Pressure on NHS
New Variants

With good progress tentative dates could be:

8th March - Schools and Golf/Tennis
29th March - Beer Gardens (max 2 households)
Mid-April: Gyms
Third week in April - Non-essential retail
May: Cinemas, theatres, indoor pubs and restaurants.
August: Foreign holidays and nightclubs

With the Premier League season running to 23rd May, it feels like that could give scope for some fans at some games before the end of this season...

 

[Mellotron]

Independent and Telegraph both reporting 29th March as date for organised sport to return (ie 5 a side football).

 

[Bodian]

Moving this over to the main board temporarily, as it will be very much in focus tomorrow. Stuff across the media tonight suggesting a cautious four-point plan on releasing lockdown, based on:

Vaccination rollout
Effectiveness
Pressure on NHS
New Variants

With good progress tentative dates could be:

8th March - Schools and Golf/Tennis
29th March - Beer Gardens (max 2 households)
Mid-April: Gyms
Third week in April - Non-essential retail
May: Cinemas, theatres, indoor pubs and restaurants.
August: Foreign holidays and nightclubs

With the Premier League season running to 23rd May, it feels like that could give scope for some fans at some games before the end of this season...

Given all the recent talk about the packed beaches causing nothing, and outdoor transmission pretty low - I suspect we might also get some relaxation on meeting people outdoors. For instance, at the moment we can go for a walk only with one other person - this could well change to now being allowed to meet outdoors for a take away coffee, etc. They may even bring back the rule of six relatively early?

 

[Mellotron]

Given all the recent talk about the packed beaches causing nothing, and outdoor transmission pretty low - I suspect we might also get some relaxation on meeting people outdoors. For instance, at the moment we can go for a walk only with one other person - this could well change to now being allowed to meet outdoors for a take away coffee, etc. They may even bring back the rule of six relatively early?

Hearing rule of 6 outdoors from 29th March.

 

[Swansman]

Moving this over to the main board temporarily, as it will be very much in focus tomorrow. Stuff across the media tonight suggesting a cautious four-point plan on releasing lockdown, based on:

Vaccination rollout
Effectiveness
Pressure on NHS
New Variants

With good progress tentative dates could be:

8th March - Schools and Golf/Tennis
29th March - Beer Gardens (max 2 households)
Mid-April: Gyms
Third week in April - Non-essential retail
May: Cinemas, theatres, indoor pubs and restaurants.
August: Foreign holidays and nightclubs

With the Premier League season running to 23rd May, it feels like that could give scope for some fans at some games before the end of this season...

Imo it would be such a dumb thing to do, gathering thousands of people with just weeks left of the season. Very unnecessary, its not like having 2000-5000 in the audience for one or two home games is going to do a massive difference for the finances of the PL clubs.

 

[Mellotron]

Ignore

 

[Bodian]

Hearing rule of 6 outdoors from 29th March.

Still seems a long way away doesn't it....

 

[Mellotron]

Still seems a long way away doesn't it....

It does - but I think they want to manage the shift in attitude towards this pandemic very carefully - article from Peston tonight about how the responsibility for safety is going to be passed back to us.

For example, at some point the guidance is going to stop having any element of legality and become just that again - guidance. I would guess that would be the case once groups 1-9 have been vaccinated, plus 3 weeks.

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

I don't see data supporting either of your arguments. Could you provide it?

The data I know about suggests hospitalisations down by half in exactly a month, cases and deaths dropping by nearly 25% a week and millions and millions of the most vulnerable vaccinated. Can you tell me what change there would be simply by reopening schools in early March?

The more the virus circulates during the vaccination period, the more chance there is that mutations arise that can beat the vaccine.

This is a really really critical time, because the virus will be meeting more and more vaccinated people as we roll the program out, and thus any mutations that allow it to get through the vaccines defences will multiply and its genetics selected for. The more infections there are, the more mutations will occur, more vaccinated people exposed and the more chance that a successful mutation will arise and become established. If we don't try and control that we'd be one big petri dish experiment. The ultimate risk is the vaccine becomes ineffective and drags us back into future lockdown. All for the sake of a few weeks now. We need to get numbers down as tiny as possible at soon as possible.