Roadmap out of Lockdown - Feb 22nd

[crodonilson]

Anyone want to speculate on what sort of process and timeline to gently and carefuly ease our way out of lockdown??

Can't see all schools returning in one big bang on March 8th, SAGE have already warned that this would be likely to push the R rate dangerously close to or even above 1. Think it will be a gradual phased reopening between then and the start of the Easter holidays in early April. Then possibly some limited household mixing between 2/3 households with strict limits and in covid secure environments for Easter (much like the original Xmas plan).

 

[Is it PotG?]

 

[sparkie]

Schools back after Easter holidays.

Rule of 6 Beer Gardens and Garden Centres to open up end of March when clocks change to BST.

Limited shops, hairdressers to open end of April.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It just depends on how much of sage they want to ignore.

Following sage and we will be like this for months

I imagine we are going to be following Israel plan as they are the first to try

 

[dazzer6666]

All a bit of a guess but providing data trend continues (infections, hospitalisations and deaths all very significantly down) and vacc prog delivers (and data confirms the vulnerable have been protected by the first jab), maybe something like :

-Schools during March
-More outdoor mixing (rule of 6 etc) maybe end March/early April, along with shops and services reopening
-Hospitality sometime after Easter (with limitations - maybe max one or two households per table etc)
-effectively Tier 2 type restrictions around the end of April/early May (so maybe a game or two with 2000 at the Amex)
-some semblance of normality early June but with some restrictions likely continuing (rapid regional lockdowns, masks in certain settings etc)

 

[beorhthelm]

Schools back after Easter holidays.

Rule of 6 Beer Gardens and Garden Centres to open up end of March when clocks change to BST.

Limited shops, hairdressers to open end of April.

sounds about right. numbers point to return to tier 1 like restriction from Easter (6 weeks away).

 

[beorhthelm]

It just depends on how much of sage they want to ignore.

Following sage and we will be like this for months

I imagine we are going to be following Israel plan as they are the first to try

if we follow Sage will be in lockdown until all of Europe is vaccinated and virus near eradicated, so sometime in late 2022.

 

[ManOfSussex]

Social distancing restrictions will have to remain in place until at least the autumn to reduce the transmission of coronavirus under plans being considered by ministers.

The Times understands that the government’s route out of lockdown is based on the assumption that people will have to wear facemasks and remain a metre apart for months. Scientists believe that the restrictions may need to be retained until the end of the year.

“The thinking is that social distancing will need to be in place for a long time to come,” a Whitehall source said. “It has repercussions for the scale of any reopening. Restaurants, pubs and offices will all need to be Covid-secure.”

Ministers believe it will allow other controls to be relaxed. A government source said: “The more restrictions we have in place like social distancing rules the more we can do in terms of easing.”

It is not clear whether the policy will remain in place for different households, meaning that grandparents will still be unable to hug their grandchildren. Sources said that a variety of options were under discussion.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...n-england-could-remain-until-autumn-cvzcrkb9g

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

if we follow Sage will be in lockdown until all of Europe is vaccinated and virus near eradicated, so sometime in late 2022.

Yep, The one positive I took from the press conference the other day was JVT shot down the Zero covid idea.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/...n-england-could-remain-until-autumn-cvzcrkb9g

Autumn will mean 2022, I think it’s safe to assume they won’t remove any restrictions at that time of year.

 

[dsr-burnley]

It just depends on how much of sage they want to ignore.

Following sage and we will be like this for months

I imagine we are going to be following Israel plan as they are the first to try

You might even replace the word "months" with "ever".

My first holiday is booked in April. It's a self-catering cottage so there should be no issue. We should at least be able to travel by then.

SAGE need to be aware that for all eternity, the R rate of this disease is going to be greater than 1 half the time and less than 1 half the time. It's not the R rate that matters, it's the death and destruction that this disease causes; if that's not so much, then they can lift restrictions anyway.

This will be the second consecutive Mothering Sunday when all we can do is look at each other across the dining room table. At least I can see my mother. What sort of life is it for those widowed mothers who live alone?

In reality? Who knows. I don't think this government has the nerve to try and release lockdown.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

You might even replace the word "months" with "ever".

My first holiday is booked in April. It's a self-catering cottage so there should be no issue. We should at least be able to travel by then.

SAGE need to be aware that for all eternity, the R rate of this disease is going to be greater than 1 half the time and less than 1 half the time. It's not the R rate that matters, it's the death and destruction that this disease causes; if that's not so much, then they can lift restrictions anyway.

This will be the second consecutive Mothering Sunday when all we can do is look at each other across the dining room table. At least I can see my mother. What sort of life is it for those widowed mothers who live alone?

In reality? Who knows. I don't think this government has the nerve to try and release lockdown.

There really doesn’t seem to be much of an want to release, I guess we will see on the 22nd, they have to be careful here - there is already rumblings of people asking what’s the point of the vaccine if this doesn’t end, which is fuelling the nutters.

Are they worried once this is over the damage done to jobs and the ecc become clear?

We are seeing road maps out of this in places like Vegas now - by May 1st everything is handed back to local authorities and Dem state.

 

[DIFFBROOK]

I hope they are sensible about this, but I fear that the goal posts are being moved. This was all about protecting the NHS and saving lives. It is the over 50's and vulnerable who are vastly vastly at risk from COVID. By April those groups should have been vaccinated. The numbers entering hospital and dying from Covid at that point should (for new cases) fall rapidly. There should be no reason why I cant see my vaccinated parents. My wifes mother is in a care home. With dementia and poor eye sight. My wife hasnt been able to give her a hug since xmas 2019. We live 300 miles away. Many others in a similar boat.

There is a big danger here, that if you restrict too harshly then people will simply ignore the rules en mass - and that really would be dangerous.

 

[BLOCK F]

Until SD is done away with, there is no normality to be had.
Yes, we may have the ‘twilight zone’ of semi operating pubs, restaurants, hotels and shops, but normal life and behaviour as we know it will still be some way off.
I can see rules being relaxed for family/households mixing, some outdoor and indoor activity and sports being permitted and, of course,schools reopening. Beyond that, heaven knows. I certainly can’t envisage football stadia and other events being packed with spectators.
The gloomy side of me sees everyone being jabbed by the autumn, but infections rising as the weather gets cooler and ‘here we go again’, except without the number of deaths and serious illness previously experienced. If that happens it remains to be seen how the Government and Sage react. Will they bang us all up again or will we just live with it? Will living with it mean SD continuing for blooming’ ages or what? If it does, it doesn’t bear thinking about.

 

[crodonilson]

Until SD is done away with, there is no normality to be had.
Yes, we may have the ‘twilight zone’ of semi operating pubs, restaurants, hotels and shops, but normal life and behaviour as we know it will still be some way off.
I can see rules being relaxed for family/households mixing, some outdoor and indoor activity and sports being permitted and, of course,schools reopening. Beyond that, heaven knows. I certainly can’t envisage football stadia and other events being packed with spectators.
The gloomy side of me sees everyone being jabbed by the autumn, but infections rising as the weather gets cooler and ‘here we go again’, except without the number of deaths and serious illness previously experienced. If that happens it remains to be seen how the Government and Sage react. Will they bang us all up again or will we just live with it? Will living with it mean SD continuing for blooming’ ages or what? If it does, it doesn’t bear thinking about.

It will be sensible, certainly for next Autumn and WInter to proceed very, very carefully and so I think there will be a tihtening of restrictions in September after whatever freedoms we are given over the Summer but in a typical year as many as 20,000 people can die from flu and nobody really bats an eyelid so even Chris Whitty has said once the public/government is comfortable with the number of deaths it's producing as it is unlikely to be eradicated in the near future we will go back to some sort of a normal way of life (although I think facemasks and some social distancing, enhanced hygiene measures may be here for good).

 

[RossyG]

He’s my roadmap.

Everyone over 65 (that want it) vaccinated:

Schools back
All shops open
Pubs and cinemas open

Everyone over 50 (that want it) vaccinated:

Everything back to normal.

 

[loz]

He’s my roadmap.

Everyone over 65 (that want it) vaccinated:

Schools back
All shops open
Pubs and cinemas open

Everyone over 50 (that want it) vaccinated:

Everything back to normal.

Yup that works for me. In fact forget the over 50s.

 

[Mellotron]

There is a big danger here, that if you restrict too harshly then people will simply ignore the rules en mass - and that really would be dangerous.

They'll have to find a middle ground between Sage's perfect scenario and what the population will bear.

 

[Mellotron]

I think it'll be a case of getting to around Tier 3 (late March), then 2 (late April), then 1 (late May), and seeing what happens. Watching Israel also.

I really hope they allow playing outdoor sport soon. So low risk, and so beneficial to many people who have very little else atm.

 

[sparkie]

Yup that works for me. In fact forget the over 50s.

We are on the clinical Priority list for a reason so let's not forget us, eh ?

 

[Fungus]

I think it'll be a case of getting to around Tier 3 (late March), then 2 (late April), then 1 (late May), and seeing what happens. Watching Israel also.

I really hope they allow playing outdoor sport soon. So low risk, and so beneficial to many people who have very little else atm.

Yes, organised outdoor team sports would feel like a great step forward. I miss my Saturday morning sessions, seeing my old mates.

In fact, seeing anyone beyond just my wife would be great.