[Politics] Reshuffle news...

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Not fact. I support PR because it minimizes the chance of ANY team winning. And the less power politicians have, the less they can f*ck up.

Fair enough.

I quite like labour and somewhat dislike the tories, which would explain our different take.

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Fair points. Perhaps Cameron did campaign for Brexit, albeit evidently not well enough, and in any case he set up the referendum thoughtlessly, without the safeguard of a 60:40 bar that was used when we joined the EU. It all seemed too casual to me at the time, meaning I was very angry with him.

Can't disagree with any of that. The brilliant Tim Shipman book about the campaign is a great eye opener. Cameron took the decision to hold the referendum after exhaustive surveys convinced him that Remain would win. He called the referendum to get rid of UKIP who won 4 million votes in 2015, and getting ever stronger. Both Labour and Tories were badly affected by UKIP and a Remain victory would have benefited Labour too. Alan Johnson did a good job for Labour during the campaign, while Corbyn was missing in action for most of it. Cameron campaigned very hard. His problem was that many cabinet members (Theresa May for instance) hid. But Cameron himself, and Osborne, were constantly in the news

Despite being a labour member I accept there is a fair chance Corbyn would have been a worse PM than Cameron. His pathetic behaviour during the Brexit run up ground my gears.

Finally your first point, I am sure the tory polling will improve now. There is something about Cameron that may resonate, for the electorate at large, with a time before the headbangers took control of the tory party. But his appointment will surely cause splitting in tory ranks, as it cannot possible have been greeted with warmth by those tories who abhorred his vigorous campaigning for Remain (I'm taking your word that he was tremendous in this regard - I have simply forgotten; perhaps the tory faith will too, in which case my take will be wholly wrong. Time will tell).

Well we can't be sure of course. But the Tories are in such dire straits that I'd have thought any bump in the opinion polls would persuade them to stick together, just like Labour post 2017. The big problem for the Tories is increasing migration to the Reform Party who are polling at 8%, just 2 points behind the LibDems. Not that I'm too persuaded by opinion polls. There are a lot of don't knows and won't says in the polls at the moment. Those of us of a certain vintage will remember 1992 with unease. Kinnock was hot favourite right up to that shocking exit poll on election night

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Can't disagree with any of that. The brilliant Tim Shipman book about the campaign is a great eye opener. Cameron took the decision to hold the referendum after exhaustive surveys convinced him that Remain would win. He called the referendum to get rid of UKIP who won 4 million votes in 2015, and getting ever stronger. Both Labour and Tories were badly affected by UKIP and a Remain victory would have benefited Labour too. Alan Johnson did a good job for Labour during the campaign, while Corbyn was missing in action for most of it. Cameron campaigned very hard. His problem was that many cabinet members (Theresa May for instance) hid. But Cameron himself, and Osborne, were constantly in the news

Well we can't be sure of course. But the Tories are in such dire straits that I'd have thought any bump in the opinion polls would persuade them to stick together, just like Labour post 2017. The big problem for the Tories is increasing migration to the Reform Party who are polling at 8%, just 2 points behind the LibDems. Not that I'm too persuaded by opinion polls. There are a lot of don't knows and won't says in the polls at the moment. Those of us of a certain vintage will remember 1992 with unease. Kinnock was hot favourite right up to that shocking exit poll on election night

Very measured. Thank you.

(And where were you before June 23? )

 

[Colonel Mustard]

Very measured. Thank you.

(And where were you before June 23? )

Germany and Switzerland! I'd been watching Albion on and off since the early 90s when I met my wife, whose folks were from Pevensey, and big Albion fans. Would always go and see them when down from Oop north. Then we went to live/work in mainland Europe and visits became fewer. Finally retired and we moved back to E Sussex.

 

[WATFORD zero]

That's certainly what we've been missing over the last 14 months, the Bullingdon boys representatives in Government.

Great to have them back

 

[raymondo]

I'm sure you're right but I think I have read somewhere, the latest date can be in January 2025? Yep, found it.

General election 2024: what happens when an election is called? | Institute for Government

The general election took place on Thursday 4 July 2024.

www.instituteforgovernment.org.uk

Sunak doesn't care. He'll be off to the States as soon as it's over, renewing his green card.

Seat on the board of a major oil company I'd expect.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

Can't disagree with any of that. The brilliant Tim Shipman book about the campaign is a great eye opener. Cameron took the decision to hold the referendum after exhaustive surveys convinced him that Remain would win. He called the referendum to get rid of UKIP who won 4 million votes in 2015, and getting ever stronger. Both Labour and Tories were badly affected by UKIP and a Remain victory would have benefited Labour too. Alan Johnson did a good job for Labour during the campaign, while Corbyn was missing in action for most of it. Cameron campaigned very hard. His problem was that many cabinet members (Theresa May for instance) hid. But Cameron himself, and Osborne, were constantly in the news

Cameron was told to make the result a super majority ie 60%, but thought he knew better.

 

[um bongo molongo]

I’m very much the opposite of a Cameron fan but that decision I think was probably right. Can you imagine the total binfest there’d have been if Leave had gotten 52% of the vote and nothing changed?

His biggest mistake in my opinion was the framing of the question. ‘Leave’ needed to be defined. As it was it just became a concept that people could believe meant anything they wanted it to. And framing the question as ‘would you like things to stay exactly as they are or would you like a change’ was extremely dumb.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

I’m very much the opposite of a Cameron fan but that decision I think was probably right. Can you imagine the total binfest there’d have been if Leave had gotten 52% of the vote and nothing changed?

His biggest mistake in my opinion was the framing of the question. ‘Leave’ needed to be defined. As it was it just became a concept that people could believe meant anything they wanted it to. And framing the question as ‘would you like things to stay exactly as they are or would you like a change’ was extremely dumb.

Theresa May could’ve discussed the conditions for leaving but rushed invoking Article 50 without any clear idea of what that meant. Johnson & the ERG stabbed her in the back to make it the hardest agreement which still isn’t finished.

 

[Machiavelli]

I’m very much the opposite of a Cameron fan but that decision I think was probably right. Can you imagine the total binfest there’d have been if Leave had gotten 52% of the vote and nothing changed?

His biggest mistake in my opinion was the framing of the question. ‘Leave’ needed to be defined. As it was it just became a concept that people could believe meant anything they wanted it to. And framing the question as ‘would you like things to stay exactly as they are or would you like a change’ was extremely dumb.

Completely agree. The big problem was that Remain was what we knew. Leave was any old fantasy, and multiple fantasies were dreamed up. The two campaigns said different things to one another, each campaign said different things to different constituencies, much of which was directly contradictory. And then there were the undeliverable promises.
The worst of it all is there was no accountability for Leave, and its campaigns.
Cameron's putting his party ahead of the country directly created the conditions that the public has subsequently had to endure.

 

[Bodian]

I'd forgotten quite how smug I found Cameron.

Not quite as smug or as punchable as Osbourne - let's hope he doesn't suddenly get made Chancellor or something.....

 

[Audax]

His biggest mistake in my opinion was the framing of the question. ‘Leave’ needed to be defined. As it was it just became a concept that people could believe meant anything they wanted it to. And framing the question as ‘would you like things to stay exactly as they are or would you like a change’ was extremely dumb.

Totally agree with this. As much as the politicians who backed Leave (or became Leave backers after the 52% result) kept telling us "everyone knew what they were voting for", I'm absolutely convinced of the following (based on anecdotal conversations both before and after the referendum):

1. If you asked 100 Remain backers what they were voting for, you would get 100 very similar responses.

2. If you asked 100 Leave backers what they were voting for, you would get a wide variety of responses - everything from what we've got, an even harder Brexit, and several varieties of softer Brexit outcomes (inc. remaining in the single market etc).

So absolutely no, you Leave backing politicians, I do not believe that everyone who voted Leave agreed on what they were voting for. I'm absolutely convinced that if a specific form of Leave had been put forward (rather than the very open version) then Remain would likely have won. *Especially* if the version of Leave we eventually got was what was on the referendum paper - proponents of soft brexit (ie stay in single market etc) would have voted Remain in large enough numbers to tip the balance.