[Albion] Relegation odds

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nwgull

Well-known member
Jul 25, 2003
14,533
Manchester
How come that both Leicester and Ipswich are odds on to return to whence they came, yet Southampton are 7/4?
Ipswich were heavily reliant on loan players, weren’t they. For Leicester, I guess the fact that they’re a financial shambles has been priced in.
 


Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo

I believe in Joe Hendry
Oct 4, 2003
12,065
City 28/1 what are they expecting?

In reality they probably aren't expecting anything, but they are pricing City and Chelsea to protect themselves to a degree if they do get relegated/huge points deduction for FFP failures. If they were actually expecting that to happen next season and had any sort of inside info on it happening I imagine they'd be priced a lot shorter and probably odds on like Leicester and Ipswich.
 




Lifelong Supporter

Well-known member
Aug 4, 2009
2,104
Burgess Hill
We won't have the distraction of Europe. We'll have a manager whose focus will be on making a good impression. The players will be motivated to achieve. Nobody will be leaving and players will join. We have plenty of talent in the squad already. We have teams up from the Championship with issues.

We could flirt a bit with relegation it is true. Well that would add some bite and excitement to the games, make the players want it more. I don't see us going down though.

To put the thought into context in the seven seasons we have been in the premier league how many weeks have we been in the relegation zone?

Oh yes and I'll wager the goalkeeper rotation will end. I doubt if RDZ will ever do that again either. It was really just nonsense. That must have cost us a point or two surely!
 




Krafty

Well-known member
Apr 19, 2023
2,067
How come that both Leicester and Ipswich are odds on to return to whence they came, yet Southampton are 7/4?
I believe the bookies are anticipating a few FFP punishments for Leicester, whilst Ipswich look like the weakest team in the league next season.
 


Han Solo

Well-known member
May 25, 2024
2,454
Don't think we'll go down, but 20-1 is obviously super good.
 


Weststander

Well-known member
Aug 25, 2011
69,281
Withdean area
The value there, without yet knowing how clubs recruit in the summer, is Forest, Brentford and unfortunately us.

Ipswich evens = likely double your money.

Their competitors have a huge inbuilt financial advantage eg Fulham, Forest and CP have spent an awful lot of money (fees and wages) on squads full of top flight quality players.
 




US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,665
Cleveland, OH
2000/1 for Liverpool. Clearly the bookies think Liverpool will hit the jackpot with the Slot machine.
 


Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2007
10,095
Starting a revolution from my bed
Whether your glass half-full or half-empty, I think you can recognise 20/1 is pretty good odds as it stands. RDZ’s exits signals that we’re probably not going to spend much money this summer. A few of the key injured players aren’t expected to be fit for the start of the season. All it takes is a bad run to begin with and you’d be in a good position to lay off the bet for profit. Put it this way, those odds aren’t going to get any longer.
 


trueblue

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
10,954
Hove
Whether your glass half-full or half-empty, I think you can recognise 20/1 is pretty good odds as it stands. RDZ’s exits signals that we’re probably not going to spend much money this summer. A few of the key injured players aren’t expected to be fit for the start of the season. All it takes is a bad run to begin with and you’d be in a good position to lay off the bet for profit. Put it this way, those odds aren’t going to get any longer.
Does it? I think it just signals we're not going to spend a lot of money on players that he wanted, as opposed to ones the club has identified.
 




Flounce

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Nov 15, 2006
4,264
Let’s just say that they had a very good end to the season and we didn’t. Also, we were consistently in position 7 to 10 in the league until the final day. That is hardly being in disarray.
True but it felt like it to me as we looked mostly shit and clueless for the last few months, then we lost a previously brilliant manager who seemed to have totally lost interest :smile:

We’ll see who comes in and who we buy or sell…
 


Dave the OAP

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,761
at home
20/1. Blimey that is worth 50p each way!
 


US Seagull

Well-known member
Jul 17, 2003
4,665
Cleveland, OH
It's kinda funny that City are both 28/1 to be relegated, while also being clear favorites to lift the trophy again.
 




Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2007
10,095
Starting a revolution from my bed
Does it? I think it just signals we're not going to spend a lot of money on players that he wanted, as opposed to ones the club has identified.
We’ll see. I’d be surprised if TB said, ‘Roberto, we’re going to spend good money this summer on a few players to improve the first team, the recruitment team have identified the talents and we’re gonna start going after them.’ And RDZ said, ‘Nah, you need to let me pick them, Tony. I can’t agree to that.’

I’d guess it was more like, ‘Roberto, we’re going to sign a couple of promising youngsters again this summer. Are you happy to work with that and continue to develop the talent we have?’ And RDZ said, ‘if we want to challenge for Europe again we need to sign a few players ready to walk into the first team, not just youngsters.’ To which TB would have said we’re not moving from our model.

It’s Tony’s money and his business plan so I have no problem with that.

I hope I’m wrong and we go in for a few top players hitting their prime, ready to go straight into our XI.
 


trueblue

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
10,954
Hove
We’ll see. I’d be surprised if TB said, ‘Roberto, we’re going to spend good money this summer on a few players to improve the first team, the recruitment team have identified the talents and we’re gonna start going after them.’ And RDZ said, ‘Nah, you need to let me pick them, Tony. I can’t agree to that.’

I’d guess it was more like, ‘Roberto, we’re going to sign a couple of promising youngsters again this summer. Are you happy to work with that and continue to develop the talent we have?’ And RDZ said, ‘if we want to challenge for Europe again we need to sign a few players ready to walk into the first team, not just youngsters.’ To which TB would have said we’re not moving from our model.

It’s Tony’s money and his business plan so I have no problem with that.

I hope I’m wrong and we go in for a few top players hitting their prime, ready to go straight into our XI.
I doubt we'll go for top players hitting their prime because the type of proven Premier League ready player we'd need to improve the current side would cost £60-70m each. We broke our transfer record twice last summer though to bring in Pedro and Baleba, so Bloom is not exactly tight. Just not generous enough to satisfy De Zerbi.
 


Jimmy Grimble

Well-known member
Nov 10, 2007
10,095
Starting a revolution from my bed
I doubt we'll go for top players hitting their prime because the type of proven Premier League ready player we'd need to improve the current side would cost £60-70m each. We broke our transfer record twice last summer though to bring in Pedro and Baleba, so Bloom is not exactly tight. Just not generous enough to satisfy De Zerbi.
Agreed, but the squad really feels like it needs a few players in their mid-late twenties, ready for first team football. We’ve got plenty of experienced heads and plenty of youngsters but not a lot in between.
 


el punal

Well-known member
Aug 29, 2012
12,547
The dull part of the south coast
True but it felt like it to me as we looked mostly shit and clueless for the last few months, then we lost a previously brilliant manager who seemed to have totally lost interest :smile:

We’ll see who comes in and who we buy or sell…
I agree that we were certainly off the boil as the season was drawing to a close. I can only think of two dominant performances in the league in 2024 - beating Palace 4-1 at home and Sheffield Utd 5-0 away. I really don’t know why RDZ seemed to lose interest, I really thought that with the chips down he would show resilience and gee the team up. Unfortunately that was not the case.

With regard to ins and outs I wonder how much say the new coach will have in this matter. Intriguing.
 




Dougie

Well-known member
Jan 11, 2012
5,812
I don’t bet but id be tempted by those odds .
 


trueblue

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
10,954
Hove
Agreed, but the squad really feels like it needs a few players in their mid-late twenties, ready for first team football. We’ve got plenty of experienced heads and plenty of youngsters but not a lot in between.
Sorry, but I don't think you're telling anyone anything new. The model (that's worked) is exceptionally talented young players, mentored by very experienced pros because that's what we can afford and still be competitive. It'd be great, for instance, to go and sign Morgan Gibbs-White but he'd be £70-80m. Mid-20s players from the Championship might be an option, but as an emerging talent like Pedro cost us £30m, that's awkward too. We've got players this season like Enciso, Baleba, Adingra, Hinshelwood and Buonaotte and a hopefully revitalised Ferguson (if we get a manager with a style to suit him) who've been building up experience they'd never get at 'bigger' clubs and can put in performances beyond their years.
 


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