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[Albion] Relegation Odds







pb21

Well-known member
Apr 23, 2010
6,735
Back up to 9/1 after today’s results. May it stay that way.

An implied chance of relegation of ~10% seems too low to me.

I don't think we will be relegated but I would say the chances are far more likley than 10%, or at least it feels like it!
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
An implied chance of relegation of ~10% seems too low to me.

I don't think we will be relegated but I would say the chances are far more likley than 10%, or at least it feels like it!

It feels like it to me as well!

9's is a great bet. Won;t be taking it though. I'd feel dirty
 


Sheebo

Well-known member
Jul 13, 2003
29,319
Feels more like 23% to me...

But yeh anyone Bering on us to go down can **** right off in my book! Would be no consolation whatsoever to me (unless it was 6 figures which I’d never do so... just no...)
 


Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
70,018
Withdean area
An implied chance of relegation of ~10% seems too low to me.

I don't think we will be relegated but I would say the chances are far more likley than 10%, or at least it feels like it!

It feels very generous.

We’re a similar quality level to Villa imho, just a few points ahead, yet they’re evens.
 








Weststander

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Aug 25, 2011
70,018
Withdean area
26662372-BDEC-4E49-9B28-E51EA06E4614.png


We were 10/1 at Betfair this morning.

Interesting how the markets still consider us superior to: Newcastle (29 points), Watford (relentless wins and draws) and Villa (spending their way out of this transfer window ... wages and fees).
 




Leegull

Well-known member
Apr 7, 2016
1,142
Newcastle 10/3
Burnley 10/3
West Ham 7/2
Watford 7/2
Villa 4/6
Bournemouth 4/7
Norwich 1/7

Brighton 8/1

Latest relegation odds (courtesy of 365)

Now I don’t think that we’ll go down but I think it will almost certainly be as tight as the past couple of seasons.
Why do the bookies see these 7 teams as being so much more likely to go down than us?

Is our run in so much easier than all of these? Newcastle are 4 points ahead of us and Bournemouth only 4 points behind (maybe only 1 next week)

Someone tell me what I’m missing please, is our run in really easy :shrug:
 




dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
56,084
Burgess Hill
Newcastle 10/3
Burnley 10/3
West Ham 7/2
Watford 7/2
Villa 4/6
Bournemouth 4/7
Norwich 1/7

Brighton 8/1

Latest relegation odds (courtesy of 365)

Now I don’t think that we’ll go down but I think it will almost certainly be as tight as the past couple of seasons.
Why do the bookies see these 7 teams as being so much more likely to go down than us?

Is our run in so much easier than all of these? Newcastle are 4 points ahead of us and Bournemouth only 4 points behind (maybe only 1 next week)

Someone tell me what I’m missing please, is our run in really easy :shrug:

Norwich, Liverpool, City, Southampton, Newcastle, Burnley last 6 games.
 




Stumpy Tim

Well-known member
The panic set in by a draw against Villa really is astonishing, even by people who I would normally consider sane. Yes a win would have been ideal, but we are still 3 points off the relegation zone with a far superior goal difference. We still have a relatively decent run in, despite a tricky April. We are not reliant on one player, like many of the teams below us (Villa being one). Just remember, recently Burnley (who have lost their key striker) lost 3-0 at home to that Villa team.

If we win on Tuesday, NSC will suddenly change
 


Icy Gull

Back on the rollercoaster
Jul 5, 2003
72,015
The panic set in by a draw against Villa really is astonishing, even by people who I would normally consider sane. Yes a win would have been ideal, but we are still 3 points off the relegation zone with a far superior goal difference. We still have a relatively decent run in, despite a tricky April. We are not reliant on one player, like many of the teams below us (Villa being one). Just remember, recently Burnley (who have lost their key striker) lost 3-0 at home to that Villa team.

If we win on Tuesday, NSC will suddenly change

Yesterday was a must not lose game but it could so easily have been a win. The manner of the way was threw the game away was a worry though. But we got a point and stopped Villa closing the gap. Not ideal but not the disaster that some (usual suspects mostly) are suggesting.
 


Stumpy Tim

Well-known member
Yesterday was a must not lose game but it could so easily have been a win. The manner of the way was threw the game away was a worry though. But we got a point and stopped Villa closing the gap. Not ideal but not the disaster that some (usual suspects mostly) are suggesting.

Exactly this. Losing at home to Cardiff and Bournemouth for a cumulative 7-0 was a disaster. A 1-1 draw against a team 3.5 points behind you isn't
 




Thunder Bolt

Silly old bat
Yesterday was a must not lose game but it could so easily have been a win. The manner of the way was threw the game away was a worry though. But we got a point and stopped Villa closing the gap. Not ideal but not the disaster that some (usual suspects mostly) are suggesting.

The one handed save by Reina was the difference from a team that had beaten us twice earlier in the season. We came very close to winning it.
 


JC Footy Genius

Bringer of TRUTH
Jun 9, 2015
10,568
The panic set in by a draw against Villa really is astonishing, even by people who I would normally consider sane. Yes a win would have been ideal, but we are still 3 points off the relegation zone with a far superior goal difference. We still have a relatively decent run in, despite a tricky April. We are not reliant on one player, like many of the teams below us (Villa being one). Just remember, recently Burnley (who have lost their key striker) lost 3-0 at home to that Villa team.

If we win on Tuesday, NSC will suddenly change

Well said that man even if we lose on Tuesday it's not the end of the world. Others will have a different pov obviously ..

d4a.gif
 


Tom Hark Preston Park

Will Post For Cash
Jul 6, 2003
72,730
Always bet with your head, not with your heart. If you feel dirty about it, stick some money on relegation NOW and cash out after the next two games. You'll either make a small profit or a small loss. Lose at both Bmuff and West Ham and you'll make a half-decent profit as odds will contract mightily. Will probably halve in fact.
 


Is it PotG?

Thrifty non-licker
Feb 20, 2017
25,753
Sussex by the Sea
Best price 9s before Villa, now 7s is the optimum.

Anything less than 3 points tonight and 9s will be a long, distant memory.
 




Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
If we get 9 points from the next 5 games, I think we'll get a 40 point finish and be safe.

That may leave the Palace game as a *must win* unless we get the requirement before it. :facepalm:


3 points tonight would relieve a heck of a lot of pressure.
 




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