[Albion] Relegation Odds

[Moshe Gariani]

34 will be plenty

A simple projection of current points gives Cardiff a final total of 33pts.
Giraffe's "Tracker" system that takes into account fixtures difficulty suggests they could end on 35pts.
Sporting Index think Cardiff are most likely to finish on 32pts.

Sporting have us to finish 14th on 41pts which seems about right.

 

[Icy Gull]

It'll be plenty to avoid being in the bottom 2 - not so sure about that 3rd from bottom spot though! Newcastle went down with 37 points only 3 years ago and my gut feeling is that all but Huddersfield and Fulham are capable of ending up with a points total of 36+.

I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.

 

[Greg Bobkin]

6 points from 30 is relegation form and others are all improving...…………………..we need to get a win very soon! I'll be very concerned if we don't come away with 3 pts at home to Burnley!

But six points from 30 is pretty much what was expected to be the return from that run of games. I'm not overly concerned, to be honest...

 

[Surf's Up]

I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.

Warnock will use/is using what's happened to motivate the players the club and the city...Cardiff will stay up. Burnley have got over their bad spell and are now difficult to beat again, Southampton have a new manager but still seem vulnerable, Newcastle will not be relegated and we are second from bottom in the Form Table over the last 10 games, us and Huddersfield are getting cut adrift at the bottom of this, arguably the most important and relevant table. . Make no mistake...we are in the relegation dogfight and we need at least a further 10 points to be safe. Our "easiest" games are all at home to teams in the same predicament as us and they will therefore not be easy.

 

[Simster]

I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.

The thing is, we probably only need one of those teams to fail to hit 36 points and we'd be alright by default. If all of them make 36 points, it will still take a terrible run for us to get sucked in.

Ultimately, the bookmakers are offering 16/1 which puts our chances of relegation at around 1 in 20. We really are not in bed-wetting territory yet. In some ways, flirting with relegation might be good for the club, as it'll act as a kick up the arse in the close season.

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

I agree Burnley, Newcastle and Southampton are all capable of putting together a good run and all seem to be improving. Cardiff is a tough one to call but given the adversity they have faced over the last couple of weeks I think Warnock may be capable of doing with them what Gus did with Sunderland and perform a miracle on the run in.

But logic suggests they won't all have a good run in and also you could add the name Brighton to the list of teams that have a good run in?

 

[El Presidente]

Five points from the next two home games would be amazing.

 

[Icy Gull]

Five points from the next two home games would be amazing.

Indeed, shame it’s not possible

 

[Brovion]

Five points from the next two home games would be amazing.

I'm going to treat your financial postings with a bit less respect in future ...

 

[Moshe Gariani]

Five points from the next two home games would be amazing.

And add to that 3pts from West Brom tomorrow night...

 

[Not Andy Naylor]

The thing is, we probably only need one of those teams to fail to hit 36 points and we'd be alright by default. If all of them make 36 points, it will still take a terrible run for us to get sucked in.

Ultimately, the bookmakers are offering 16/1 which puts our chances of relegation at around 1 in 20. We really are not in bed-wetting territory yet. In some ways, flirting with relegation might be good for the club, as it'll act as a kick up the arse in the close season.

Betfair were offering 22/1 last week, which suggests that they also see us fading. I've been concerned for a while, and as for the possibility of a terrible run, we've already lost to Cardiff, Burnley and Fulham. So while our upcoming fixtures represent an opportunity to make ourselves safe and deny points to some of our direct rivals, the reverse could also be true.

 

[Machiavelli]

Betfair were offering 22/1 last week, which suggests that they also see us fading. I've been concerned for a while, and as for the possibility of a terrible run, we've already lost to Cardiff, Burnley and Fulham. So while our upcoming fixtures represent an opportunity to make ourselves safe and deny points to some of our direct rivals, the reverse could also be true.

All of this is true, but something has been consistent since we've been in the PL: we've been crap away, and good at home. Those three you mentioned are all to come at home, and they're all still below us. When you chuck in three teams we've already beaten away (Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle) that still need to come to us, things might not be so bad, especially if the past is some guide towards the future (this is not a claim I'm making though).

 

[Tim Over Whelmed]

And add to that 3pts from West Brom tomorrow night...

... and the extra point if you score three goals or more.

 

[jimhigham]

One of the key characteristics of our time in the Premier League so far has been an ability to piece together a couple of results whenever we have approached the Dotted Line of Doom. We’re reaching the point where we need to do the same again. I’m hopeful that home advantage against other relegation candidates should see us over the line.

 

[Icy Gull]

One of the key characteristics of our time in the Premier League so far has been an ability to piece together a couple of results whenever we have approached the Dotted Line of Doom. We’re reaching the point where we need to do the same again. I’m hopeful that home advantage against other relegation candidates should see us over the line.

True but the tension is likely to be epic in the next few games if we fail to win on Saturday and the other results go against us! Wouldn’t have it any other way, it’s the Brighton way

 

[cardboard]

All of this is true, but something has been consistent since we've been in the PL: we've been crap away, and good at home. Those three you mentioned are all to come at home, and they're all still below us. When you chuck in three teams we've already beaten away (Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle) that still need to come to us, things might not be so bad, especially if the past is some guide towards the future (this is not a claim I'm making though).

We lost to Bournemouth away (League)

 

[Dolph Ins]

We lost to Bournemouth away (League)

Spoilsport

 

[Thunder Bolt]

[tweet]1092696585887203333[/tweet]

 

[Nottseagull]

When you chuck in three teams we've already beaten away (Huddersfield, Bournemouth and Newcastle) that still need to come to us, things might not be so bad, especially if the past is some guide towards the future (this is not a claim I'm making though).

We haven't beaten Bournemouth's Premier League team.

 

[Leegull]

9/1 for relegation tonight, the bookies still think that there are six teams more likely to be relegated before us... that’s good enough for me...

We’ll be safe before April and in the semifinals of the FA Cup....

No worries