[Albion] Relegation Odds

[ThePaddy]

My money is on:

18: Palace
19: Huddersfield
20: Cardiff

To take the bottom places.

If Zaha stays then maybe Palace will survive and maybe Watford to take their place

I dont know if we will finish higher than last season but hope it proves to be as much fun.

Lump on Palace to go down at 6/1, what's the worst that could happen?

 

[BensGrandad]

If as rumoured in today's papers Zaha is going to join Chelsea it would make Palace virtually odds on for relegation.

 

[dangull]

I'm surprised Newcastle are such long odds. They haven't recruited much and struggled most of last season as well.

 

[perseus]

I hope it is the fourth season syndrome when promoted clubs run out of steam after their promotions, players get older and not replaced, sell their best players and get distracted by a Cup run.

 

[Pavilionaire]

Obviously the bookies aren't that impressed with Locadia and Andone, whereas they are impressed with Wolves business.

I'm confident about this season. A lot of our big players are coming into their prime and the squad - which had a whiff of Dad's Army about it last season - is younger and hungrier. This could bring more tension into the camp as big money players will be on the bench, but Hughton should be able to manage that.

 

[Surf's Up]

If as rumoured in today's papers Zaha is going to join Chelsea it would make Palace virtually odds on for relegation.

but surely they'll have £billions from his record breaking fee to invest, as they always do, wisely?

 

[PortuGull]

I'm feeling more optimistic than when we were 20/1 last season.

PS: Don't back Burnley now. Wait until they do well with an easy start.

Fans of other clubs e.g. big ones from Lancashire don't fancy our chances and mostly have us going down with Huddersfield and Cardiff

https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340678.80

Love this quote from the thread linked above:

"Crystal Palace have become something of an unflushable turd and as much as I would love to see the Bitters relegated, I don’t think it will happen."

Perfect description imo

 

[ThePaddy]

If as rumoured in today's papers Zaha is going to join Chelsea it would make Palace virtually odds on for relegation.

No, it wouldn't. I suspect that even without Zaha, the bookies would fancy Brighton as more likely to go down than Palace.

Anyway I thought Wilf was going to Spurs? Seems the papers can't make up their minds. Maybe he'll stay.

 

[sir albion]

I'm feeling more optimistic than when we were 20/1 last season.

PS: Don't back Burnley now. Wait until they do well with an easy start.

Fans of other clubs e.g. big ones from Lancashire don't fancy our chances and mostly have us going down with Huddersfield and Cardiff

https://www.redandwhitekop.com/forum/index.php?topic=340678.80

The momentum saw us through last season and we had few injuries thankfully.This season will be much tougher and the lack of quality up front will certainly come back to bite us im sure.If we're relying on an ageing Murray then we've got big problems
I reckon 17th and a great escape

 

[Steve Foster]

Interesting article in today’s Times.

Their Fink Tank gives the chances of relegation as:

Huddersfield 78.7%
BHA 43.1%
Fulham 35.8%
Cardiff 34.1%
West Ham 25.6%
Wolves 19.6%
Bournemouth 14.5%
Southampton 12.2%
Newcastle 9.3%

Everyone else less than 8%.

If I was the manager I would pin the stats up in the changing room & to tell the players to prove the so called experts wrong

 

[TSB]

Interesting article in today’s Times.

Their Fink Tank gives the chances of relegation as:

Huddersfield 78.7%
BHA 43.1%
Fulham 35.8%
Cardiff 34.1%
West Ham 25.6%
Wolves 19.6%
Bournemouth 14.5%
Southampton 12.2%
Newcastle 9.3%

Everyone else less than 8%.

If I was the manager I would pin the stats up in the changing room & to tell the players to prove the so called experts wrong

Fink Tank, presumably because there was no thought to it whasoever?

 

[Weststander]

Interesting article in today’s Times.

Their Fink Tank gives the chances of relegation as:

Huddersfield 78.7%
BHA 43.1%
Fulham 35.8%
Cardiff 34.1%
West Ham 25.6%
Wolves 19.6%
Bournemouth 14.5%
Southampton 12.2%
Newcastle 9.3%

Everyone else less than 8%.

If I was the manager I would pin the stats up in the changing room & to tell the players to prove the so called experts wrong

The model used by Finkelstein and academics Stott, Latham and Vatvani has produced good predictions of outcomes for many years. In addition they first identified the strong direct correlation between final league place and annual payroll costs, when others banged on about transfer fees spend.

 

[Johnny RoastBeef]

The model used by Finkelstein and academics Stott, Latham and Vatvani has produced good predictions of outcomes for many years. In addition they first identified the strong direct correlation between final league place and annual payroll costs, when others banged on about transfer fees spend.

But they also only gave France a 6.1% chance of winning the World Cup. (And Croatia 1.9%) So take their predictions with a huge pinch of salt.

 

[larus]

The model used by Finkelstein and academics Stott, Latham and Vatvani has produced good predictions of outcomes for many years. In addition they first identified the strong direct correlation between final league place and annual payroll costs, when others banged on about transfer fees spend.

Although they may have some track record (I can’t comment either way), I think our recruitment team have more than proved their ability to identify quality players at decent prices. Not been too many mistakes really.

Too many teams seem to take the high prices/high wages will buy quality. I think we have proved much more adept.

 

[knocky1]

Interesting article in today’s Times.

Their Fink Tank gives the chances of relegation as:

Huddersfield 78.7%
BHA 43.1%
Fulham 35.8%
Cardiff 34.1%
West Ham 25.6%
Wolves 19.6%
Bournemouth 14.5%
Southampton 12.2%
Newcastle 9.3%

Everyone else less than 8%.

If I was the manager I would pin the stats up in the changing room & to tell the players to prove the so called experts wrong

Problem is they are footballers and would think no way are we going to let Huddersfield finish top of that list......

 

[Stato]

If Finkelstein's model could make reliable predictions he would have a syndicate that makes hundreds of millions from football betting. As far as I am aware, he hasn't.

I know someone who has though....

http://uk.businessinsider.com/inside-story-star-lizard-tony-bloom-2016-2

 

[Weststander]

Although they may have some track record (I can’t comment either way), I think our recruitment team have more than proved their ability to identify quality players at decent prices. Not been too many mistakes really.

Too many teams seem to take the high prices/high wages will buy quality. I think we have proved much more adept.

Of course a lot of their statistical predictions won't end up being correct. Their model still has many clubs in the mix.

There are so many other variables, such as injuries, managerial changes, players falling out with the club, luck with refereering decisions which don't exactly even out between clubs over a season, fixture pile up from cup run.

At least their's is a serious attempt, rather than a lazy pundits based on their gut feel of transfer spend.

 

[chaileyjem]

Interesting article in today’s Times.

Their Fink Tank gives the chances of relegation as:

Huddersfield 78.7%
BHA 43.1%
Fulham 35.8%
Cardiff 34.1%
West Ham 25.6%
Wolves 19.6%
Bournemouth 14.5%
Southampton 12.2%
Newcastle 9.3%

Everyone else less than 8%.

If I was the manager I would pin the stats up in the changing room & to tell the players to prove the so called experts wrong

Last week in The Times - they asked 8 of their football writers predictions for 2018/19 . Not one of the eight had Albion in their bottom 3.

 

[Steve Foster]

One good result & the bookies are now on board

 

[Perkino]

I'm shocked we are that close to it. I don't see us being anywhere near a relegation battle