[Albion] Relegation Odds

[Blue Valkyrie]

That depends on whether one of these teams has won a game, or even looked like winning a game, this year.

We nearly beat West Ham right at the end of the game. There are probably other games we came within a whisker of winning - it is so long ago, I can't recall.

 

[Stat Brother]

We nearly beat West Ham right at the end of the game. There are probably the other games we came within a whisker of winning - it is so long ago, I can't recall.

The simple fact of the matter is we've looked like relegation candidates all season.

Every single time the team has been 'one more win' away from relative comfort they've choked.
But most importantly we don't, yet, have a recognised goal scorer and don't look like scoring goals.

That's why the odds have a vast differential.



God I need the 'new slippers' thread.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

The simple fact of the matter is we've looked like relegation candidates all season.

Every single time the team has been 'one more win' away from relative comfort they've choked.
But most importantly we don't, yet, have a recognised goal scorer and don't look like scoring goals.

That's why the odds have a vast differential.



God I need the 'new slippers' thread.

The thing is that there are other sides that have looked more like relegation candidates.

Goal difference is a good guide, and there are plenty who have been picking the ball out of the back of the net more, and scoring less, than us.

 

[Pierre the Painter]

I don't think Villa are nearly as nailed on as their 2/5 odds suggest, they were looking like gunners before the shutdown but they now have a chance to regroup, key players who were injured are now fit and they've got one of the top 5 players in the League.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Interesting article in The Athletic which talks about the new 5 subs rule.

"They" reckon we are well placed to take advantage, but that other teams, particularly Villa, have less strength in depth to make 5 effective substitutions in a game.


"Brighton are in 15th place — albeit only two points clear of the drop — and their strength in depth looks particularly impressive."


Well, I wouldn't go that far... but that is a conclusion drawn in the article.

 

[blue-shifted]

Bookies/markets still rate our chances of surviving.

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Pre lockdown form will count for very little.

Home advantage likely to be less

Ability to prevent Covid outbreaks in squad could be crucial

Unpredictability is likely to be very high.

There's value to be had in Southampton, Newcastle and even Palace

 

[Insel affe]

Interesting article in The Athletic which talks about the new 5 subs rule.

"They" reckon we are well placed to take advantage, but that other teams, particularly Villa, have less strength in depth to make 5 effective substitutions in a game.


"Brighton are in 15th place — albeit only two points clear of the drop — and their strength in depth looks particularly impressive."


Well, I wouldn't go that far... but that is a conclusion drawn in the article.

Your a bundle of laughs today Mr Valkyrie

 

[zefarelly]

Palace and Burnley are safe . . . . anything below is risky.

 

[zefarelly]

As far as strength in depth, I thinjhk we are well positioned . . .2 reasons, the element of surprise in a few players unknown, and young refreshed minds as well as legs. 5 subs would be great.

 

[Icy Gull]

As far as strength in depth, I thinjhk we are well positioned . . .2 reasons, the element of surprise in a few players unknown, and young refreshed minds as well as legs. 5 subs would be great.

I agree, we have a squad where not many players are irreplaceable if unavailable. The level of the squad players is very close to the first team players imo. Not many of the lower PL teams have a better squad, some have star players who would be badly missed. How many do we have?

We have good back up throughout the team imo. Dunk and arguably Ryan would be the only big misses.

Having typed the above I am wondering why I think we are going down, maybe I’ve been an Albion fan too long

 

[Weststander]

Pre lockdown form will count for very little.

Home advantage likely to be less

Ability to prevent Covid outbreaks in squad could be crucial

Unpredictability is likely to be very high.

There's value to be had in Southampton, Newcastle and even Palace

I can see so many valid arguments happening:

- Better quality footballing teams Citeh, LFC, Leicester - will win virtually every match home and ‘away’.

- Clubs who reckon they have aggressive, fervent home support that putting the opposition off, lose all that alleged advantage and take far fewer home wins than they did before - Burnley, CP.

- Counter attacking teams that sit back and don’t chase the ball in the heat, will thrive in summer temperatures - Watford, CP and Wolves.

I don’t think it will be a random lottery, great players will thrive.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Loadsa people keeping it pretty quiet on here that they went quite LARGE on relegation at quite fancy prices. These are the people who have been WATCHING what they've been seeing and who gave been betting with their heads instead of their hearts. These are the same group of betters that doubtless think that 3/1 is still a fancy price that won't survive the first round of EPL matches played

 

[nwgull]

That depends on whether one of these teams has won a game, or even looked like winning a game, this year.

It's going to have been a 16 week break by the time we kick off our next game, isn't it? When you consider that the summer break between seasons is usually only 13 weeks, I think that you can probably remove the form factor.

 

[Is it PotG?]

So many unknowns and variables in here.

Will the 'big boys' fancy it, how will Liverpool line up after winning the title, which clubs will enjoy empty stadiums, who will benefit from the break?

Bookies must love this.

 

[Stat Brother]

It's going to have been a 16 week break by the time we kick off our next game, isn't it? When you consider that the summer break between seasons is usually only 13 weeks, I think that you can probably remove the form factor.

I'll believe that when the team win a game.

Let's face it though as a couple of key wins makes all this entire thread obsolete it's bloody stupid the players and manager still find themselves in this rather clenched situation.

 

[Icy Gull]

I'll believe that when the team win a game.

Let's face it though as a couple of key wins makes all this entire thread obsolete it's bloody stupid the players and manager still find themselves in this rather clenched situation.

Are you filling in for Spence?

 

[Stat Brother]

Are you filling in for Spence?

No I'm being realistic.

 

[Icy Gull]

No I'm being realistic.

Are you suggesting that he isn’t

You are now officially a DOOM MONGER!

 

[Weststander]

Loadsa people keeping it pretty quiet on here that they went quite LARGE on relegation at quite fancy prices. These are the people who have been WATCHING what they've been seeing and who gave been betting with their heads instead of their hearts. These are the same group of betters that doubtless think that 3/1 is still a fancy price that won't survive the first round of EPL matches played

I’m one of those people, I thought everyone was open about it, even non-betting @HWT took out an insurance bet I think.

Imo 3/1 seems pretty good value, my instinct says we’re evens, but a couple of early wins would (happily) make all the bets look like money down the drain.

 

[ForestRowSeagull]

Yeah i've got a few hundred quid on at various prices from 9's down to 3.25. Figured they'd pay for a few championship season tickets if the worst happens.