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[Football] Relegation odds 20/21







loz

Well-known member
Apr 27, 2009
2,483
W.Sussex
How can they work out odds when the squads will change in most teams by at least 5 or 6 players ??
 


Braggfan

In the beginning there was nothing, which exploded
May 12, 2014
1,987
A successful treble involving Leeds, Villa and Palace would probably give me more pleasure than the birth of my first son

That's my favourite post on here for months, possibly all year. That is such a heart warming thought during these dark times. It is geniunely lovely to dream of a better world.
 


southstandandy

WEST STAND ANDY
Jul 9, 2003
6,052
Early market days but Fulham, West Brom and Villa the 3 favourites to go down, followed by Palace. This is what’s currently being offered:

(Most odds are through SkyBet)

Fulham 5/4
West Brom 5/4
Villa 9/4
Palace 5/2
Newcastle 3/1
Burnley 10/3
Leeds 7/2
Brighton 4/1
Sheff Utd 4/1
West Ham 4/1
Southampton 7/1

This is very much the mini league we're competing in. Suspect Southampton might push on into the top ten but the other 10 clubs listed, together with ourselves will pretty likely be the bottom half of the division. We just need to finish try to finish top of it, although I'd take 15th again now.
 


Clive Walker

Stand Or Fall
Jul 5, 2011
3,590
Brighton
most sites I've seen are offering Brighton at 3/1 and Leeds at 7/2 or 4/1.
 






CheeseRolls

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jan 27, 2009
6,233
Shoreham Beach
The starting point always has to be the three that came up. It is such a hard gap to bridge, throwing money at it, doesn't guarantee anything, ask Fulham, or the very fortunate Villa.

Sheffield United had a massively successful season with a tight knit squad and a style of play, that may not have the surprise element next season. It is extremely hard to strengthen, when you strength is togetherness.
Newcastle flattered to deceive last season and with the promise of new finance to replenish a stale squad, look to be in trouble. The rest of the teams in the bookies opening gambit, look on paper good enough, but there is still a huge amount of luck around injuries, transfers and tight results, all of which can impact form.

Not sure why I am even trying to sound knowledgeable on this. I got taken to the cleaners by the bookies on my season's bets and will have to top up my funds, if I want to play again.
 


DarrenFreemansPerm

⭐️⭐️⭐️⭐️
Sep 28, 2010
17,452
Shoreham
A successful treble involving Leeds, Villa and Palace would probably give me more pleasure than the birth of my first son

78120B50-FA24-4F85-9F4B-DF7ADA88DB61.gif
 




RM-Taylor

He's Magic.... You Know
NSC Patron
Jan 7, 2006
15,306
most sites I've seen are offering Brighton at 3/1 and Leeds at 7/2 or 4/1.

Listed as 4/1 on SkyBet, Leeds now listed the same on there but was showing 7/2 earlier on. Not much difference I know
 


spence

British and Proud
Oct 15, 2014
9,953
Crawley
[MENTION=21158]Weststander[/MENTION] will be all over this thread
 


blue-shifted

Banned
Feb 20, 2004
7,645
a galaxy far far away
Promoted teams

2019

Norwich – Rock bottom, shocking at the back
Sheff Utd – Incredible season
Villa – Just survived, may establish themselves

2018

Wolves – Established themselves. Very good side
Fulham – Relegated with a whimper. Yo-yo’d back up yesterday
Cardiff – Relegated, but made play offs. Don't look all that to me

2017

Newcastle – 100s of millions spent. bottom half Prem team
Brighton – 100s of millions spent. bottom half Prem team
Hudds – one decent season, bottom half of championship now

2016

Burnley – Established side, but vulnerable to losing manager and a small number of key players
Boro – lower reaches of Championship
Hull – League one at best

Some have gone on to do ok. More have struggled to establish themselves. Only Wolves look to have sustainably built a top half team
 




Blue Valkyrie

Not seen such Bravery!
Sep 1, 2012
32,165
Valhalla
They look about right, but I'd swap Leeds and Villa.

Our odds will take a hit if Dunk leaves, mind.
 








FatSuperman

Well-known member
Feb 25, 2016
2,925
Sheffield United had a massively successful season with a tight knit squad and a style of play, that may not have the surprise element next season. It is extremely hard to strengthen, when you strength is togetherness.

See also; Huddersfield.

I see these as similar situations, a bit like our decent performance in year 1. You are still riding the togetherness wave, which makes a huge difference no matter the league you are in. It is incredibly hard to maintain that when players start being replaced, and fatigue of 'surviving' kicks in. Burn out from a small squad of core players also contributes. And then, the plummet begins - arresting that slide is pretty challenging, even after you've dropped to the division below, the slide can continue.

Wolves I do see as a different scenario. They clearly have a very talented squad, in my opinion built by nefarious means, but hey ho.

Then you've got the Burnley model. Set up in a very specific way and happy to play that way, despite it being fairly awful to watch. Credit to the club and management for persisting with it - it's about results for them.
 






schmunk

Why oh why oh why?
Jan 19, 2018
10,363
Mid mid mid Sussex
Sheffield United had a massively successful season with a tight knit squad and a style of play, that may not have the surprise element next season. It is extremely hard to strengthen, when you strength is togetherness.

They'd already mostly been found out by the second part of this season - after the restart they only scored 11 points from their 10 games - that's less than we did from our 9.
 




Jolly Red Giant

Well-known member
Jul 11, 2015
2,615
Too early to judge who might go down - transfers will impact on how some teams will do (keeping Grealish would be massive for Villa).

Even now I would fancy Fulham to go down - WBA have been there before and know how to fight, Leeds will throw some money at staying in the PL but it could go belly-up for them. Odds are at least one if not two of them will be relegated anyway and all three could be down within two seasons. After that - anyone of the bottom 12 clubs could end up getting dragged into the mix.
 


Mo Gosfield

Well-known member
Aug 11, 2010
6,362
Promoted teams

2019

Norwich – Rock bottom, shocking at the back
Sheff Utd – Incredible season
Villa – Just survived, may establish themselves

2018

Wolves – Established themselves. Very good side
Fulham – Relegated with a whimper. Yo-yo’d back up yesterday
Cardiff – Relegated, but made play offs. Don't look all that to me

2017

Newcastle – 100s of millions spent. bottom half Prem team
Brighton – 100s of millions spent. bottom half Prem team
Hudds – one decent season, bottom half of championship now

2016

Burnley – Established side, but vulnerable to losing manager and a small number of key players
Boro – lower reaches of Championship
Hull – League one at best

Some have gone on to do ok. More have struggled to establish themselves. Only Wolves look to have sustainably built a top half team


Wolves are interesting as they are almost a unique project, built around a Portugese manager, a Portugese agent and a core of very good Portugese players ( 7 at the last count ). Their ' sustainability ' in the top half could well depend on this core staying in place. The dynamic in any club can change very quickly and if Nuno were to be tempted away, then the very good progress that Wolves are making as a club could stall. One or two players could follow him and there is no question that the real big boys will be eyeing up Traore. So long as the status quo continues then I think Wolves will do ok. Any changes and I'm not so sure.
 


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