Reckless by name reckless by nature

[glasfryn]

joining UKIP
ALWAYS WAS A

WHATS KNOW FROM THE OLD DAYS AS A TURNCOAT

 

[seagullsovergrimsby]

joining UKIP
ALWAYS WAS A

WHATS KNOW FROM THE OLD DAYS AS A TURNCOAT

A fair number of Tory MPs will be considering their position. If they stand as a Conservative in 2015 they might well lose their seat whereas defecting to UKIP might keep them on the "gravy train".

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Doubt there will be many UKIP MPs in the next Parliament myself.

 

[Murray 17]

Doubt there will be many UKIP MPs in the next Parliament myself.

I wouldn't be so sure. Top party in the Euro election with over 27% of the vote, and growing support. They just need to show video footage of the scenes of migrants in Calais in their Party Political Broadcast and I can see them winning quite a few seats.

 

[Leekbrookgull]

Holds a near 10K majority in a coastal seat,he won't be short of support.

 

[beorhthelm]

A fair number of Tory MPs will be considering their position. If they stand as a Conservative in 2015 they might well lose their seat whereas defecting to UKIP might keep them on the "gravy train".

the maths of voting and habits of the electorate in this country means that very unlikly any sitting Conservative will be aided by switching to UKIP. what you'll have is a number of seats with the right vote split, so a Liberal or Labour MP returned. in the main, the UKIP supporting numbers wont be outwieghed by the "tick the blue" tribal voters.

a few charismatic MPs might be able to swing the whole tory vote behind them, but i doubt those defecting so far are those (Farage might bag a seat though).

 

[A mex eyecan]

Doubt there will be many UKIP MPs in the next Parliament myself.

dismissing them would be a grave mistake I think.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

Holds a near 10K majority in a coastal seat,he won't be short of support.

How many voted for him or the party?

 

[sir albion]

I wouldn't be so sure. Top party in the Euro election with over 27% of the vote, and growing support. They just need to show video footage of the scenes of migrants in Calais in their Party Political Broadcast and I can see them winning quite a few seats.

Spot on...Many are deluded if they think ukip are a flash in the pan,growing support week by week

 

[Kumquat]

They are trying to target Labour seats right now so I imagine even UKIP see Mr Reckless as second best. Watched a lot of the UKIP conference to see what exactly they are saying. From what I've seen, they know exactly what they need to do but have some way to go. They are touching all the right buttons but any serious oxygen of publicity will open them up quickly. Their biggest seling point is that Labour no longer represent the working class. I saw one really good speech at the UKIP conference, several very ordinary and one seriously mental where you have to wonder why they let him on stage. They have a lot of good policies now that chime with a large part of the population. But they have no real belief in them or ability to deliver them.

 

[Freddie Goodwin.]

UKIP may well feel that Kent is ripe for support, being on the front line facing the nearest French ports and the immigrants waiting to cross.

 

[Pavilionaire]

I wouldn't be so sure. Top party in the Euro election with over 27% of the vote, and growing support. They just need to show video footage of the scenes of migrants in Calais in their Party Political Broadcast and I can see them winning quite a few seats.

Great, let's vote for a party because we're afraid of something.

 

[Theatre of Trees]

I wouldn't be so sure. Top party in the Euro election with over 27% of the vote, and growing support. They just need to show video footage of the scenes of migrants in Calais in their Party Political Broadcast and I can see them winning quite a few seats.

That 27% means nothing if it cannot be translated into seats, the European elections are done under proportional representation which favours small parties - the Greens often do well in them. The vagaries of the British electoral system means it is incredibly difficult for third parties, as your support needs to be considerable in all seats for it to be a success. For precedence there is the 1983 general election when Labour's vote collapsed to 27% in the face of opposition by the SDP/Liberal alliance which gained 25%. However, when translated into seats Labour won 32% (209) and the SDP/Libs 4% (23) a net difference of 186 seats despite only 700,000 votes separating the two parties.

 

[happypig]

How many voted for him or the party?

I don't see him as a particularly charismatic MP with a huge personal following (I may be wrong) so I think he'll struggle in a constituency where you could put up a pig in a blue rosette and get him elected.
There's an awful lot of people (of all persuasions) who vote along party lines; I always did and will be struggling with party vs personality next year when I have to choose between the party I've always supported and a local MP who has been, IMO, excellent so far.
If UKIP are going to break through then they need to put people up in genuine marginals and preferably (for them at least) three-way marginals. What they'll find difficult is not having many high-profile, "charmers" apart from Farage.

 

[Murray 17]

That 27% means nothing if it cannot be translated into seats, the European elections are done under proportional representation which favours small parties - the Greens often do well in them. The vagaries of the British electoral system means it is incredibly difficult for third parties, as your support needs to be considerable in all seats for it to be a success. For precedence there is the 1983 general election when Labour's vote collapsed to 27% in the face of opposition by the SDP/Liberal alliance which gained 25%. However, when translated into seats Labour won 32% (209) and the SDP/Libs 4% (23) a net difference of 186 seats despite only 700,000 votes separating the two parties.

I do wish you would back up your opinions with facts! [emoji1]

It's a very good point that % of votes does not necessarily mean seats won. History tells you that one of the two main parties will win the most seats, but I think there will still be a fair few UKIP MPs in the next parliament. They will have a fair influence in a hung parliament.

 

[gregbrighton]

Good as it will see a collapse in the Tory vote.

 

[glasfryn]

wonder if when he was at school they called him feckless Reckless

 

[portslade seagull]

I had yougov call me asking how I would possibly vote in the next election answered UKIP to all their questions as they appeared to be leaving them out of most of the possible answers. Seemed to be very labour biased ripped into them telling her how useless they are. Hopefully it will stop any crap being sent to me