Price of cigarettes

[Questions]

can't be arsed reading everything here but is it safe to assume this is going the same way as usual i.e Smokers are defending themselves by implying it's the only way they'll die where as non smokers get hit by buses etc

I'm only here to bide time until the Barnes thread comes along again soon.

 

[Questions]

I have nothing against people paying that amount of money for a packet of fags if that is what they want. The only objection I have is the fact that all outside seating areas to coffee bars and pubs and bus shelters are taken up by smokers and if I don't want to smell of tobacco I cannot sit there.

You don't want to sit outside anyway BG. Skin cancer ?

 

[Simster]

If you're saying that 999,999 fags won't kill you, but that 1m will, you can extrapolate from that that it's the 1 millionth fag that will kill you - which is just one fag.

Therefore the chances of smoking killing you are 1 in 1 - providing you smoke 999,999 fags first.

Good point well made. But my premise was based on the fact that we don't know which fag in the batch of 1,000,000 was going to kill you.

A better calculation could be made if you knew how long you intend to smoke. So if you intended on smoking 20 a day from the ages of 20 to 70, that would amount to approximately 50 x 365.25 x 20 = 365250 cigarettes. So the chance of being killed by a ciggy at some point between your 20th and 70th birthdays would actually be:
=1-0.694, or 30.6%

 

[OSRGull]

I just get an 8g GV box, last me two days and they're only £2.50.

 

[TranmereGull]

Is this really So......when I see old pictures and films it seems to me everyone smoked, much more than today ! it just seems to me that anyone that smokes dies because they smoked including my Nan and grandad, he died of smoking related stroke at 79 and she died of a smoking related heart attack at 82!!...give me either of those ages now and I will take them.

The rates of Heart attack and stroke have not decreased particularly over the past 40 years but they have tended to move back by about 8 years as smoking rates have declined and medical treatment has improved.

At one time 1/2 of adult male smokers would not live to collect their old age pension. It is now down to 1/3 although as they push the pension age back I suppose it will drop again. It is very much in societies interest that a sizable minority of people do smoke for tax and pension reasons but medical advances and treatment costs for chronic diseases are making it a finer balance all the time.

It is certainly not really true anymore the claim by smokers that without the taxes they contribute the NHS would keel over as they are also accounting for a far greater share of available resources to keep them alive in their twilight years.

 

[BensGrandad]

You don't want to sit outside anyway BG. Skin cancer ?

I like the fresh air sometimes and have had my share of cancer and now in remission. This type of cancer was due to smoking and drinking neat Brandy I was told by the surgeon.

 

[Bakero]

I've been paying ~60p for 20 Marlboro for the last couple years in Vietnam. At that price I figured I'd be practically losing money if I didn't smoke. I've left Nam now though, having an extended holiday before coming back to Europe, and decided to quit. No cigs in 2 weeks and not missing it to be honest.

 

[TranmereGull]

If you're saying that 999,999 fags won't kill you, but that 1m will, you can extrapolate from that that it's the 1 millionth fag that will kill you - which is just one fag.

Therefore the chances of smoking killing you are 1 in 1 - providing you smoke 999,999 fags first.

Easy then. Just keet a running total in your head and pack it in on 999,999.

Live long and prosper.

 

[GingerBeerMan]

Good point well made. But my premise was based on the fact that we don't know which fag in the batch of 1,000,000 was going to kill you.

A better calculation could be made if you knew how long you intend to smoke. So if you intended on smoking 20 a day from the ages of 20 to 70, that would amount to approximately 50 x 365.25 x 20 = 365250 cigarettes. So the chance of being killed by a ciggy at some point between your 20th and 70th birthdays would actually be:
=1-0.694, or 30.6%

I like the maths, but you're assuming that each cigarette has an equal chance of killing you. This isn't right and the more you smoke, the more chance each cigarette has of killing you.

 

[BensGrandad]

I wonder if the drop in smokers is coincidental with people living longer coupled with other factors. When I was a lad it was common for people to die in their 60s with a life expectancy of 3 score years +10 (70) now it is a lot longer. Well I hope so because I am 70 next year.

 

[TranmereGull]

I like the fresh air sometimes and have had my share of cancer and now in remission. This type of cancer was due to smoking and drinking neat Brandy I was told by the surgeon.

I would have thought the chance of spontaneous combustion would have been just as high.

 

[TranmereGull]

I like the maths, but you're assuming that each cigarette has an equal chance of killing you. This isn't right and the more you smoke, the more chance each cigarette has of killing you.

I assume he is going for a median value rather than a mean.

 

[Simster]

I like the maths, but you're assuming that each cigarette has an equal chance of killing you. This isn't right and the more you smoke, the more chance each cigarette has of killing you.

I assume he is going for a median value rather than a mean.

Nope, I am going according the BBC report that said one in a million tabs kills someone. Unusually, [MENTION=22906]GingerBeerMan[/MENTION] has been paying attention to detail though and is possibly perfectly correct that they become progressively more harmful as you consume more. My maths doesn't account for that, as we'd need to know the rate of increased harm and possibly get into the realms of differentiation to predict the chance of death.

 

[TranmereGull]

Nope, I am going according the BBC report that said one in a million tabs kills someone. Unusually, [MENTION=22906]GingerBeerMan[/MENTION] has been paying attention to detail though and is possibly perfectly correct that they become progressively more harmful as you consume more. My maths doesn't account for that, as we'd need to know the rate of increased harm and possibly get into the realms of differentiation to predict the chance of death.

Couldnt you attribute a miniscule "incremental march towards death" factor for each fag? something divided by a million=progression of risk.

That way we could have our smoker not only ticking off the coffin nails towards his demise but also have him colour in some sort of lung chart with a big skull and crossbones on the top which he could fill in more aggressively as he goes and as risk increases?

Come on you NSC Statistics flairniacs.

 

[daveinprague]

One of the reasons for staying in Europe...I was genuinly shocked by the prices last time I was in Brighton...I understand the reasonings, and it does appear to be working, and people are reducing their smoking...at least some..for others, I imagine they will do without other things.
Also, non smokers whinged for years, about smoke in pubs/bars/cafes....and wanted everybody to go outside and smoke....now they do...they are STILL whinging....

 

[Tom Bombadil]

You don't want to sit outside anyway BG. Skin cancer ?

Leave him alone, it's his only pleasure nowadays, sitting on a park bench in the sunshine, gumming a werthers original.

 

[Questions]

I like the fresh air sometimes and have had my share of cancer and now in remission. This type of cancer was due to smoking and drinking neat Brandy I was told by the surgeon.

My Missus smokes and would spend every hour of the day lying in the sun if she could and got well arsy with me the other day when I mentioned life insurance and funeral costs.

 

[BensGrandad]

I have the same problem with my wife as regards sun bathing but she does not smoke and has never even tried one even in her young days.

 

[Questions]

Couldnt you attribute a miniscule "incremental march towards death" factor for each fag?


Come on you NSC Statistics flairniacs.

You could never print all that on the packet as the health warning.

 

[Arthur]

I cannot understand why anyone smokes anymore.

Because they enjoy it?

I don't smoke but I've got no problem with people that do. It's their money they can spend on what they like.