Bold Seagull
strong and stable with me, or...
Merkel said yesterday that Germany expects 60-70% to catch it. Frankly, their preparations and contingency for dealing with it is better than ours, so it's hard to argue that less of us will catch it. But what's important is how quickly it spreads, because that's what can overwhelm medical resources, especially ICU beds, staff and equipment (eg ventilators). It's been reported that Italy has twice the number of acute ICU beds we have (sorry, no immediate source). So I imagine the key question COBR will be asking this morning is 'what measures can slow down transmission?' Banning mass events could well be one.
What she didn't really say and one of her top virologists did, is that infection rate while a reasonable worse case scenario might take years to reach that level depending on treatments etc.
What we need to wake up to is that this virus is going to be with us conceivable for quite a long time, and so drastic measures may not have the impact you need depending on your country's current situation.
I'm at a loss if banning mass events is bought in if say for example, you continue running the underground, or trains, or even retail centres? Is banning a football match proportionate if Bluewater is still open in Saturday? Why should a football match be stopped as a mass event if Thorpe Park and Chessington, cinemas, museums, galleries etc. etc. are all still open?
If you are going to stop something it has to have a notable objective impact in conjunction with other measures. Stopping football matches at the weekend is just nuts if we're not shutting anything else.