[Football] Premier League / Football League attempts to finish the season

[dazzer6666]

I also hear a lot of people saying the broadcasters will have to write off the losses and won't be able to insist on the money being repaid

Highly unlikely. Remember how much money they are losing through cancelled subscriptions and plummeting ad revenues. Sky and BT have bet the farm on football driving their revenues. They will know full when that the majority of league clubs will go under anyway and will be keen on getting their money back before the bankruptcy wave starts.

I'm not so sure - if they screw football over now by bankrupting half the clubs (reclaiming or withholding money), they won't have anything to show in the longer term. I don't think it's either/or - the EPL/EFL/FA and the broadcasters will more likely come to some form of 'mutual agreement' and share the hit for this season and next (assuming they can afford to do so). Genuinely think this will lead to a resetting of things across the board though - broadcasting contracts will be renegotiated downwards, and naturally followed by transfer fees and player wages because the income won't be there to service current levels of expenditure.

 

[Weststander]

This is why I still firmly believe that all the games should be played. Clearly we are nowhere near being ready to start on health grounds.

The problem is that clubs spend money before it's even come in and the great majority of the 91 league clubs are mortgaged to the hilt and were before the crisis starts. Now they are at risk of having to hand back large chunks of TV cash in addition to not having any matchday income.

At the very least, if there's a commitment to play the games, even if not possible yet, the issue is more of cashflow. TV money doesn't have to be handed back, solidarity payments may remain intact and a few more clubs might get through this.

The primary thought process on how to navigate this minefield, should be with a view of protecting as many clubs as possible (safely). We and others deserve the criticism for prioritising the avoidance of relegation. If this crisis had happened at any time in our history before TB came, we would be one of the clubs going to the wall.

Good post.

People sometimes relish covid-19 giving “greedy big clubs” their comeuppance. Imho it won’t. Spurs, Liverpool, Citeh, Manu, Everton and Chelsea, I’m not sure about Arsenal with the much loathed Kroenke, will all be sitting pretty in 18 months time, making mega player purchases once again. They either have vast other sources of income and/or very rich backers. Looks like Newcastle are about to join them.

Their finances are another planet to the rest of the PL and EFL. That’s where clubs might go bust.

 

[Weststander]

I'm not so sure - if they screw football over now by bankrupting half the clubs (reclaiming or withholding money), they won't have anything to show in the longer term. I don't think it's either/or - the EPL/EFL/FA and the broadcasters will more likely come to some form of 'mutual agreement' and share the hit for this season and next (assuming they can afford to do so). Genuinely think this will lead to a resetting of things across the board though - broadcasting contracts will be renegotiated downwards, and naturally followed by transfer fees and player wages because the income won't be there to service current levels of expenditure.

Agree about the resetting. But the effect will be felt very differently between:

a) The Liverpool’s where PL broadcasting income is 28% of their total; and
b) The Brighton’s where it’s 80%.

If you’re correct, we’re going back to the PL of its first 20 years, where the top clubs were untouchable financially and often on the pitch.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

If you’re correct, we’re going back to the PL of its first 20 years, where the top clubs were untouchable financially and often on the pitch.

If you don't think that is how it is now, I can't understand it. Top 6 or so, give or take a Leicester and most matches are boringly predictable.

 

[dazzer6666]

Agree about the resetting. But the effect will be felt very differently between:

a) The Liverpool’s where PL broadcasting income is 28% of their total; and
b) The Brighton’s where it’s 80%.

If you’re correct, we’re going back to the PL of its first 20 years, where the top clubs were untouchable financially and often on the pitch.

Quite possibly.........and of course we'll see whether the PL have the minerals to level the playing field somewhat via FFP enforcement (don't hold your breath)

 

[Weststander]

If you don't think that is how it is now, I can't understand it. Top 6 or so, give or take a Leicester and most matches are boringly predictable.

As an Albion supporter I agree, but it used to be far worse.



The likes of Sheff Utd, Burnley and Leicester wouldn’t have had a hope in hell of making Europe, LCFC of winning the league.

Now, away from home especially, the ManU’s and Chelsea’s of the PL can suffer defeat anywhere, they are compelled to play their best 11.

The reason always given for the partial closing of the gap, is that recent PL distributions give every club an unprecedented minimum of £97m, enabling better squads for ‘lesser’ clubs.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Paul Barber on R5 now explaining how he won't support anything that makes it harder for us to stay in the EPL, such as losing home advantage by playing in neutral stadia.

He sounds excellent, that man.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Paul Barber on R5 now explaining how he won't support anything that makes it harder for us to stay in the EPL, such as losing home advantage by playing in neutral stadia.

He sounds excellent, that man.

Any situation makes it less likely than it was

No home fans
players out of contract
Rivals have injured players back - Villa could end up with Heston back etc
Teams scheduled to play won’t have cup/European games distraction

Or no relegation - so what’s the point - all this so they can crown Liverpool champions?


It’s not happening.

Only 4 or so clubs want it to continue.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

Any situation makes it less likely than it was

No home fans
players out of contract
Rivals have injured players back - Villa could end up with Heston back etc
Teams scheduled to play won’t have cup/European games distraction

Or no relegation - so what’s the point - all this so they can crown Liverpool champions?


It’s not happening.

Only 4 or so clubs want it to continue.

It isn't, is it?

That said, given the madness of the UK, I'd say it is still as likely as the UK Brexitting before the end of the year (or ever). The 'let's just do it' contingent may win the day, again.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It isn't, is it?

That said, given the madness of the UK, I'd say it is still as likely as the UK Brexitting before the end of the year (or ever). The 'let's just do it' contingent may win the day, again.

The only way I can see it happening is if they scrap relegation, but that’s a very dangerous road to go down.

Once you have done it once it’s becomes easier to do it again, we don’t want Villa to go down and replace them with Burnley - no relegation this year.

Im also certain the TV companies won’t be interested then - 94ish dead rubbers.

 

[studio150]

The only way I can see it happening is if they scrap relegation, but that’s a very dangerous road to go down.

Once you have done it once it’s becomes easier to do it again, we don’t want Villa to go down and replace them with Burnley - no relegation this year.

Im also certain the TV companies won’t be interested then - 94ish dead rubbers.

Correct reports emerging that Sky and BT will treat the removal of relegation as breach of contract and withhold TV money to PL.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Paul Barber on R5 now explaining how he won't support anything that makes it harder for us to stay in the EPL, such as losing home advantage by playing in neutral stadia.

He sounds excellent, that man.

If Mr Barber can say with a straight face that losing home advantage to Liverpool and Man City will damage Brighton more than they will benefit by playing "away" games against Norwich and Southampton, then he's a better actor than me. Is he trying to make out that Brighton v Liverpool was a likely home win? Brighton would almost certainly get no points v Liverpool if it was played at the old Goldstone Ground with no Liverpool fans in the place. Whereas not going to Carrow Roads is a definite advantage.

Mr Barber will not be popular if he costs other clubs £30m for no better reason that to weasel out of possible relegation. I doubt it will work, anyway; not if the PL as a whole wants to carry on. If I was setting the next meeting agenda, the first item would be to vote on whether to continue the season. And if the 7 suspects (bottom 6 + Spurs) vote it down, then the second item would be a proposal to relegate the bottom three. Brighton of course would be happy, but I think Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich would look at item 2 on the agenda and decide to vote in favour of item 1.

 

[cjd]

If Mr Barber can say with a straight face that losing home advantage to Liverpool and Man City will damage Brighton more than they will benefit by playing "away" games against Norwich and Southampton, then he's a better actor than me. Is he trying to make out that Brighton v Liverpool was a likely home win? Brighton would almost certainly get no points v Liverpool if it was played at the old Goldstone Ground with no Liverpool fans in the place. Whereas not going to Carrow Roads is a definite advantage.

Mr Barber will not be popular if he costs other clubs £30m for no better reason that to weasel out of possible relegation. I doubt it will work, anyway; not if the PL as a whole wants to carry on. If I was setting the next meeting agenda, the first item would be to vote on whether to continue the season. And if the 7 suspects (bottom 6 + Spurs) vote it down, then the second item would be a proposal to relegate the bottom three. Brighton of course would be happy, but I think Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich would look at item 2 on the agenda and decide to vote in favour of item 1.

Have you not got a Burnley Board to play on ?

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If Mr Barber can say with a straight face that losing home advantage to Liverpool and Man City will damage Brighton more than they will benefit by playing "away" games against Norwich and Southampton, then he's a better actor than me. Is he trying to make out that Brighton v Liverpool was a likely home win? Brighton would almost certainly get no points v Liverpool if it was played at the old Goldstone Ground with no Liverpool fans in the place. Whereas not going to Carrow Roads is a definite advantage.

Mr Barber will not be popular if he costs other clubs £30m for no better reason that to weasel out of possible relegation. I doubt it will work, anyway; not if the PL as a whole wants to carry on. If I was setting the next meeting agenda, the first item would be to vote on whether to continue the season. And if the 7 suspects (bottom 6 + Spurs) vote it down, then the second item would be a proposal to relegate the bottom three. Brighton of course would be happy, but I think Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich would look at item 2 on the agenda and decide to vote in favour of item 1.

Maybe item 3 could be potential legal action against the PL ? Get that in nice and early

I imagine a withholding of the prize/TV money would cover the costs

I’m not sure Clubs would be happy being cost more if it affects next seasons money more.

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

If Mr Barber can say with a straight face that losing home advantage to Liverpool and Man City will damage Brighton more than they will benefit by playing "away" games against Norwich and Southampton, then he's a better actor than me. Is he trying to make out that Brighton v Liverpool was a likely home win? Brighton would almost certainly get no points v Liverpool if it was played at the old Goldstone Ground with no Liverpool fans in the place. Whereas not going to Carrow Roads is a definite advantage.

Mr Barber will not be popular if he costs other clubs £30m for no better reason that to weasel out of possible relegation. I doubt it will work, anyway; not if the PL as a whole wants to carry on. If I was setting the next meeting agenda, the first item would be to vote on whether to continue the season. And if the 7 suspects (bottom 6 + Spurs) vote it down, then the second item would be a proposal to relegate the bottom three. Brighton of course would be happy, but I think Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich would look at item 2 on the agenda and decide to vote in favour of item 1.

Your first paragraph:

Boo! You're safe so you don't have a dog in this fight. And of course home advantage is an advantage. Of course it is. We left the Goldstone in the 90s, btw, not sure why you bring it up.

Your second paragraph:

The R5 boys grilled him and after he switched Skype off they applauded him. I agree with your points but the teams with no dog in the fight (for Euro places or relegation) won't risk their players in a meaningless farce at neutral grounds if 'kill the season' is on offer. Fact.

The season is dead and I'm glad Paul Barber revealed it clearly to all, and without the need to add 'and of course we'd snap your arm off to end it this very second', which he didn't, clearly and in proper English.

 

[Weststander]

Paul Barber on R5 now explaining how he won't support anything that makes it harder for us to stay in the EPL, such as losing home advantage by playing in neutral stadia.

He sounds excellent, that man.

That was the best bit of 5live in ages, what an interview, Rory Smith & co couldn’t stop the “Thank you Paul” adoration at the end.

PB was clear that he and his 19 counterparts are determined that this season will finish, if we get relegated the club are prepared and will take it on the chin. His sole disagreement, the club do not want to lose home advantage for the behind closed doors games to be held at neutral stadia. He admitted that it’s self interest to give every possible chance of staying up.

Sutton ditched the recent grandstanding and didn’t disagree at all with the season being completed, Rory Smith and Ian Wright also felt it’s the lesser of several evils such as null and void, average points.

Rory Smith & co made it plain that next season will be the same again of behind closed doors football, AT NEUTRAL GROUNDS. This summer will not be watershed for PL getting further back to normal, “the world had changed”, just a continuum of these next few months of 2019/20 football arrangements.

The neutral grounds dictate for 2019/20 and 2020/21 has come from the police and HM Football Licensing Authority, not from the clubs.

[MENTION=15734]harry[/MENTION] Wilson’s tackle .... was this your take too?

 

[Bozza]

If Mr Barber can say with a straight face that losing home advantage to Liverpool and Man City will damage Brighton more than they will benefit by playing "away" games against Norwich and Southampton, then he's a better actor than me. Is he trying to make out that Brighton v Liverpool was a likely home win? Brighton would almost certainly get no points v Liverpool if it was played at the old Goldstone Ground with no Liverpool fans in the place. Whereas not going to Carrow Roads is a definite advantage.

Mr Barber will not be popular if he costs other clubs £30m for no better reason that to weasel out of possible relegation. I doubt it will work, anyway; not if the PL as a whole wants to carry on. If I was setting the next meeting agenda, the first item would be to vote on whether to continue the season. And if the 7 suspects (bottom 6 + Spurs) vote it down, then the second item would be a proposal to relegate the bottom three. Brighton of course would be happy, but I think Bournemouth, Villa and Norwich would look at item 2 on the agenda and decide to vote in favour of item 1.

Liverpool and Man City - you're probably right.

Arsenal and Man Utd though - not so much. We've picked up 10 points out of 12 in our four home fixtures against those sides since we were promoted.

You might not like what Barber was saying but he made no pretence that his primary objective was to look for Brighton & Hove Albion. He also said, he would fully expect all other club chiefs to look out for their own club too, and you would certainly be disappointed if your main man was happy to weaken Burnley's position.

 

[Weststander]

Correct reports emerging that Sky and BT will treat the removal of relegation as breach of contract and withhold TV money to PL.

Thank you, removing the Chinese Whisper that BT and Sky would cough up unbelievable sums for nothing.

This explains the very focused 20 clubs.

 

[Weststander]

Liverpool and Man City - you're probably right.

Arsenal and Man Utd though - not so much. We've picked up 10 points out of 12 in our four home fixtures against those sides since we were promoted.

You might not like what Barber was saying but he made no pretence that his primary objective was to look for Brighton & Hove Albion. He also said, he would fully expect all other club chiefs to look out for their own club too, and you would certainly be disappointed if your main man was happy to weaken Burnley's position.

The gist, tone and words of the entire interview was that the remaining fixtures will be completed, whatever it takes.

Barber had no gripe with that per se. He said the club would take relegation on the chin. His self interest point was that each of the 20 clubs look for every advantage to get points from fixtures.

If he was being disingenuous, really scheming for the season to collapse, wouldn’t Rory Smith and Chapman as switched on journalists have probed?

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

That was the best bit of 5live in ages, what an interview, Rory Smith & co couldn’t stop the “Thank you Paul” adoration at the end.

PB was clear that he and his 19 counterparts are determined that this season will finish, if we get relegated the club are prepared and will take it on the chin. His sole disagreement, the club do not want to lose home advantage for the behind closed doors games to be held at neutral stadia. He admitted that it’s self interest to give every possible chance of staying up.

Sutton ditched the recent grandstanding and didn’t disagree at all with the season being completed, Rory Smith and Ian Wright also felt it’s the lesser of several evils such as null and void, average points.

Rory Smith & co made it plain that next season will be the same again of behind closed doors football, AT NEUTRAL GROUNDS. This summer will not be watershed for PL getting further back to normal, “the world had changed”, just a continuum of these next few months of 2019/20 football arrangements.

The neutral grounds dictate for 2019/20 and 2020/21 has come from the police and HM Football Licensing Authority, not from the clubs.

[MENTION=15734]harry[/MENTION] Wilson’s tackle .... was this your take too?

Absolutely 100% with you on that precis.

My take has always been: finish the season starting in October, by which time Covid should be over (if it isn't the season should be binned - no need to bin it yet). Then start the new season end of Jan. Has to be pan European. Restart the clock for the Qatar WC.

No nation can go it alone. Germans are doing the usual German tittery, fighting a war on two fronts (that worked well for them, twice before, not).

Next season behind closed doors is possible, but that is a structural reboot and has to be from day one, not imposed for the last 9 games, for all the reasons PB explained.

And....exhale.