PPG for top 10 and required PPG for rest of season.

[warmleyseagull]

Might well have to did out my old spreadsheet where I apply PPG from teams form (last 6 or 10 games) to the remainder of the season.

Well you can, but if you use the 6 match as an example, Derby will achieve 100 points based on their last six matches, Albion willl win league with 104 and Newcastle miss out with 97. Slightly absurd result, methinks...

The problems with recent form are: it doesn't take account of quality of opposition; may not be equal home or away; why 6 and 10, no evidence they are better predictor than last 22; takes no account of difficulty of future fixtures (e.g. derby have far more away games against top teams than home); doesn't allow for Jan signing effect; omits injuries and suspensions; and this is FOOTBALL, it doesn't work like a mechanical clock.

 

[warmleyseagull]

Didn't burnley get 56 points from the last 24 games? It is possible

Yes, they did and I for one had foolishly written them off when lost 2-0 at home to Preston just beforehand that run commenced.

My instinct is that 2.33 ppg which is what Burnley achieved from game 22 is about as good as it can get. Over a season equivalent to 107 points and that has not happened in recent history (maybe never?); Reading were closest in 2006 with 106. Don't put your mortgage on it, but I would be surprised to see anyone outside top two achieve more than 48 points from here.

 

[larus]

Updated with columns for points assuming average of 2PPG in remaining fixtures and continuing with same PPG ratio as now.

Hang on - made a mistake View attachment 80330

 

[HCxUK]

Updated with columns for points assuming average of 2PPG in remaining fixtures and continuing with same PPG ratio as now.

Hang on - made a mistake View attachment 80330

On course for 100 points and still have scope to improve with Kayal and Rosenior to return and the January transfer window... Impressive

 

[Yoda]

Ah, go on then!

Here we go then:



Have put on PPG from last 10 as well as for the season to give an indication of the kind of run a team is currently on

 

[Moshe Gariani]

If we beat QPR and Cardiff then we are as good as up.

Bookies will have us no longer than about 1/8 to be promoted. Because we could do something like W11 D3 L8 from our remaining 22 games and still go up ...

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

If we beat QPR and Cardiff then we are as good as up.

Bookies will have us no longer than about 1/8 to be promoted. Because we could do something like W11 D3 L8 from our remaining 22 games and still go up ...

Only if Reading, Huddersfield, Leeds, Massive and Derby have a miserable Christmas and New Year.

I tend to go with the gap must be greater than the number of games left theory ( which doesn't work once we get to the last 4/5 games ).

ie We are as good as up if we are 15 points clear of 3rd with 15 games still to play etc.

 

[Couldn't Be Hyypia]

I would direct you stat heads to https://experimental361.com/

It might save you some brain space and his calculations reflect the form of all the sides still to play (1000's of permutations). Interesting whichever way you look at it.

 

[Moshe Gariani]

I would direct you stat heads to https://experimental361.com/

It might save you some brain space and his calculations reflect the form of all the sides still to play (1000's of permutations). Interesting whichever way you look at it.

Very interesting. Basically doing expertly what we are all playing around with. This week saw our "Top 2 Finish" probability increase from 86% to 90%.

Beat QPR and Cardiff and, depending on what happens elsewhere, it should take at least one or two further steps towards the next goal of 95% probability.

 

[Tom Bombadil]

I wouldn't say achievable, but certainly not impossible.
Which is how I'd describe any team that has to do even more.

If something isn't impossible isn't it by definition achievable?

 

[larus]

Updated after todays fixtures. Norwich dropped out but added Barnsley/Villa.

 

[larus]

Latest update after todays fixtures.



Also, a simple sheet showing the overall season form.



Our last 17 games - 43 points. 2.53 (approx lol) per game.

 

[Fungus]

Latest update after todays fixtures.

View attachment 80544

Also, a simple sheet showing the overall season form.

View attachment 80545

Our last 17 games - 43 points. 2.53 (approx lol) per game.

Well done. To think, I was worried after six games!

Just realised, Newcastle were the only team in the top ten (as of 5pm) not to win their "Boxing Day" fixture. Big win today.

The Target PPG is looking good, but I'll stop there, so I don't jinx anything...

 

[Driver8]

Amazing to think that since 20th February against Cardiff we have lost just twice in 37 regular league games.

 

[larus]

Amazing to think that since 20th February against Cardiff we have lost just twice in 37 regular league games.

Add 89 points and 46 games, then see how consistent we've been since start of last season. Incredible job by CH and we should really be savouring these times.

 

[Yoda]

Forgot to send mine home to keep updated so just created a new one:

Column for Maximum points that can be achieved, Based on PPG so far this season, and PPG based on last 10 games.

 

[Notters]

Forgot to send mine home to keep updated so just created a new one:
View attachment 80546
Column for Maximum points that can be achieved, Based on PPG so far this season, and PPG based on last 10 games.

This is great. I would take 110 points now, never mind the 0.8

 

[larus]

Updated now with todays results. I've dropped teams off as based on current points/games, the rest are likely to be too far behind.





Happy New Year

Last 18 games. 46 Points. 2.55 PPG.

 

[portslade seagull]

Updated now with todays results. I've dropped teams off as based on current points/games, the rest are likely to be too far behind.

View attachment 80698

View attachment 80697

Happy New Year

Last 18 games. 46 Points. 2.55 PPG.

Looking sooooo good

 

[Yoda]

Ah! Go on then:

Apologies, just realised formula for max points was wrong.