saafend_seagull
Well-known member
Read this a few times and struggling to see where you got 6 points from?!
Neither do I, 5!
Read this a few times and struggling to see where you got 6 points from?!
Link?...and we should have finished 9th according to the Luck Index
Liverpool unluckiest Premier League team & Manchester United luckiest, says studyhttp://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/45087444
Just trying to think what the incidents were? [emoji848]
Against us, Stoke City should have had a second penalty although the first one was in doubt.
Fair enough, but really any decision good or bad evens out over the season. I’m sure that we got some lucky breaks that gave us an advantage. A couple of examples, Dunk’s last ditch tackle on Charlie Adam after the Stoke penalty was a foul and Duffy wiping out Lingard in the penalty area when we beat Man Utd 1-0. Yes, when decisions go against us it’s infuriating but you won’t hear me complaining if it were the other way round.
Fair enough, but really any decision good or bad evens out over the season. I’m sure that we got some lucky breaks that gave us an advantage. A couple of examples, Dunk’s last ditch tackle on Charlie Adam after the Stoke penalty was a foul and Duffy wiping out Lingard in the penalty area when we beat Man Utd 1-0. Yes, when decisions go against us it’s infuriating but you won’t hear me complaining if it were the other way round.
Every game and incident was examined and reviewed as to whether it made a difference to the outcome, so no, it clearly does not even itself out over a season.
OK, not every, my error. But still a significant amount, and a very well planned and carried out analysis. Like refereeing decisions, nothing will ever be 100% correct, but there is sufficient evidence here that bad/good luck does not even itself out over the course of the season.You say that but if you read down - "The research team analysed over 150 incidents" - So are we saying that in the significant majority of games, there were no contentious or 'lucky' moments that may influence the course of the game? No way. I wonder what vested interest ESPN and Intel have to persuade them to fund this study....
The methodology makes interesting reading:-
• The research team at the University of Bath enlisted three trained coders who watched footage from every single game across the 2017/18 Premier League season
• Using the kappa coefficient to test interrater reliability, at least two of the three coders had to highlight an incident as ‘possibly incorrect’ for it to be included in the analysis
• A random sample of these incidents was ratified by former Premier League referee Peter Walton who had a deciding say over whether the outcome of those particular incidents was down to a team being lucky or unlucky.
• From thousands of match incidents across all 380 matches, 157 incidents were finally put forward for analysis.
Who knewClearly doesn't even out over a season!
The points part is rubbish though, had we been given those two penalties against Chelsea we might have missed them both and even if we had scored with would have been 2-2 with most of the second half to go.
The important thing is referee should treat the top six the same as the bottom 14
Every game and incident was examined and reviewed as to whether it made a difference to the outcome, so no, it clearly does not even itself out over a season.
Clearly doesn't even out over a season!
Okay. You are being specific and I’m generalising. This season we could get more decisions in our favour than against. Regardless of the research carried out it’s not going to make any difference. It’s football, officials make mistakes, some crucial, but that unfortunately is the nature of the beast. On the plus side, when working correctly, we have VAR which is a step in the right direction I suppose.
I bet Stoke fans are choking on their cornflakes this morning
But really, what a load of 'tripe'. Football gets its excitement from 'human mistakes'.
Variance is with us from the moment we are born until the moment we die.
True. That doesn't invalidate the findings for last season though.Okay. You are being specific and I’m generalising. This season we could get more decisions in our favour than against.
Well, of course not - results are never going to be over-turned. Don't think anybody has suggested they should be - certainly not me.Regardless of the research carried out it’s not going to make any difference. It’s football, officials make mistakes, some crucial, but that unfortunately is the nature of the beast.
No we haven't!On the plus side, when working correctly, we have VAR which is a step in the right direction I suppose.
Really? I'm not excited by poor refereeing.