Please step forward Andy Burnham - Finally a Labour bloke that understands

[seagullsovergrimsby]

By the time we get to 2020 UKIP will be a spent force.

Their job is done, got the Tories to promise a referendum.

Agreed , they'll have no raison d'être after the referendum

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

This will be the same Andy Burnham that was part of the Labour Party that PROMISED a vote on the Lisborn Treaty and lied ? This will be the same Andy Burnham that was part of the Labour Party that didn't want to discuss immigration during the last general election but suddenly does ?

You can be a member of a party and have different views. I don't support everything in the manifesto and neither do all Labour MPs. If he has actually been quoted promising a vote on Lisbon and also personally didn't want to discuss immigration then fine. Otherwise you're clutching at straws.

 

[pastafarian]

You can be a member of a party and have different views.

whats your take on Burnham saying " i think Europe has to examine whether or not these borders should be brought back"

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

whats your take on Burnham saying " i think Europe has to examine whether or not these borders should be brought back"

I'm pro-EU and pro-Schengen so in principle I do not agree with his comments. There are a few tweaks the EU needs but broadly speaking I am disappointed by his thoughts.

 

[pastafarian]

I'm pro-EU and pro-Schengen so in principle I do not agree with his comments. There are a few tweaks the EU needs but broadly speaking I am disappointed by his thoughts.

I am enormously disappointed in your response to my question,i was hoping for a binfest denial fight to the death.
admitting you are actually disappointed by his thoughts is not fair

 

[1234andcounting]

No, not really

Yes, really. The Conservative Party didn't manage 40% of the turn-out, let alone 40% of the eligible electorate.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I am enormously disappointed in your response to my question,i was hoping for a binfest denial fight to the death.
admitting you are actually disappointed by his thoughts is not fair

He was my preference for leader as well. On a broader scale my beliefs and values are really not being addressed by any party at the moment. I've never felt so at odds with the UK's direction from the right or left before.

 

[1234andcounting]

Unfortunately for the Labour party they've found themselves in an identical position to the Tories during Blair's reign. They simply could not find an electable leader. In fact even now with Cameron they've only just managed to do it, with him needing two attempts to actually win a majority. A very slim majority at that.

On Labour's side they're faced with a very poor selection of candidates right now and whilst Burnham is the favourite and probably will win the leadership, I can't see him becoming PM unless it's as part of a coalition next time out.

The party needs a radical new face and some serious fresh thinking to combat the threat of a Tory government currently holding all the cards with free reign to mess the country up in the face of no shackles from within parliament and no viable opposition to hold them to account. Although I don't consider myself particularly aligned with him, Chuka Umunna would have been the best leader of the party as he's young, fresh and different. The guy isn't tainted by being part of the previous Labour government, he looks statesmanlike and, let's not beat about the bush, he's black, which would give him (rightly or wrongly) extra kudos from certain sections of the electorate.

I believe Umunna has been very clever with his withdrawal from the leadership race and believes that the party will take longer to heal than between now and the next general election, so has left the party to fight what will likely be another losing election campaign in five years time under somebody else's stewardship, ready for him to rise to power at a time when the party will be in a far stronger position as the groundswell of anti-Tory support will be too great for Osborne's Conservative's to bear.

Many people see this as a cycle just as the Thatcher/Major years gave way to the Blair/Brown years and we're therefore in for at least a decade of the current government. However, the Tory majority is so slim, and the divisions within the party so pronounced that their biggest enemy right now is themselves. Whilst under normal circumstances I'd expect them to hold power next time round, it's very difficult to see how they'd actually gain seats (as incumbent governments never do) when we next go to the polls, after years of austerity measures and a flailing economy. And it will be a flailing economy because overwhelming evidence from across the globe has shown time and time again that austerity measures during and after a recession simply do not work.

With the state of the country meaning the swing voters are going to have abandoned the Tories and regretted their decision in letting them in this time, the Lib Dems likely to have a bit more fight in them under a new leader and swelling membership - and crucially, having shed the poisonous image of Clegg the liar and cosying up to the Tories (a mistake they'll surely never make again in our lifetimes) - how will the Tories have any hope of holding power? Between now and then their majority is only likely to decrease, if anything, and it's not inconceivable that their majority could have even been eroded completely before the next election is called, meaning they'd only be a minority government by that point anyway.

What you need then is an opposition party leader capable of really sticking the knife in and winning back middle England. The Tories will be sitting ducks but Burnham isn't going to be the man with the rifle to finish them off. Instead we'll be back to where we were after Gordon Brown. The economy in a shit state but the incumbent government's opposition not yet credible enough to be considered a worthy alternative. Suddenly we're all looking at coalition options once more.

UKIP support will no doubt increase, as will that of the Green party. But can either party really make any gains in terms of seats won? Especially after the redrawn boundaries to favour the Tories? It seems any gains they could really make will only be very marginal. So we're back to seeing what happens in Scotland. SNP support will no doubt surge and the desire for a second referendum on leaving the Union will rise to the top of the agenda once more. Only this time faced with a Tory majority government and an economy that's doing them no favours, they'll have no reason to vote to stay, feeling they'd be better off by themselves.

So it's down to Scotland and whether the Lib Dems can regroup to become a credible party again. Centrist voters will be missing the Lib Dems right now because both Labour and the Tories have veered off left and right respectively. Burnham may bring Labour closer to the Blairist centre but there's definitely room for the Lib Dems to fight to gain back many of the seats they lost to Tories who'll be very unpopular come the next election, and if they can get them back, we're looking at no overall majority once more.

So what would happen in a coalition next time out? Lib Dems won't be touching the Tories again, but similarly Labour know they can't side with the SNP. UKIP may be natural allies to the Tories whilst the Greens would be open to working with Labour, but neither party has the clout to win enough seats under the present system to be of significance.

That leaves us with the Lib Dems, who had looked all but irrelevant after the May election, potentially holding the balance of power once more. Their new leader strikes a deal with Burnham's Labour, or we are left with a Tory minority government, who'd be battered without the power to push through their policies and unlikely to make it through a full five year term.

OK so this is all a long way off right now and much can change in politics. But is Burnham going to be the man to lead a resurgent Labour party back to power? No. However, is David Cameron's tiny minority going to hold up after years of cuts, poverty and economic depravity? Of course it won't.

The future of multi party politics dictating coalitions and pacts that we all thought was on the cards before this year's election will SURELY bear fruit next time out because otherwise how can anyone realistically expect a majority?

Excellent analysis, Mr Squid. I think, however, the Conservative Party is very likely to be tearing itself apart over Europe in the next couple of years. It already looks as if any referendum will be held before any changes/concessions are granted by the EU. It is unlikely that this will be terminal to them as above all, the Conservative Party is the great survivor of politics. However, Cameron's majority is small, will probably be eroded by deaths and by-elections and the anti-EU MPs will be able to hold him to ransom. UKIP have to gamble on the events of the next two to three years. If they get it right, they may remain a force in British politics, assuming they can find some other members able to perform reasonably on the national stage. If they get it wrong, they are very probably finished. I am not sure the Lib Dems can re-build sufficiently in one Parliament, they are back to where they were in the mid-1970s. Labour would probably do best by keeping its collective head down and saying not much at all on anything until after the referendum. Whatever else it does, it should learn from its mistakes in Scotland where supporting the Conservative position led to its annihilation. I think we may see re-groupings on the left, centre and right of British politics between now and 2020.

 

[Stumpy Tim]

Agreed , they'll have no raison d'être after the referendum

Much like the SNP had nothing left after the Scottish referendum. How did that work out?

Back to the leadership. I'm a natural Lib Dem / New Labour voter and am really interested in how this pans out. I am not a supporter of Burnham - he's a career politician and not what Labour need. He's also changed his position on key issues & that'll be easily exploitable come election time.

Has to be Liz Kendall in my opinion. She comes across as a strong leader with the right policies, and being the first Labour woman leader would be good too.

 

[pastafarian]

He was my preference for leader as well. On a broader scale my beliefs and values are really not being addressed by any party at the moment. I've never felt so at odds with the UK's direction from the right or left before.

Do you perhaps wonder why? for years people have tried to have the immigration debate,its no secret during the Labour years you were accused of being a racist for even mentioning it,now we have the two main parties going U turntastic on this issue,......if only politicians had listened and addressed concerns years ago eh

 

[Soulman]

Do you perhaps wonder why? for years people have tried to have the immigration debate,its no secret during the Labour years you were accused of being a racist for even mentioning it,now we have the two main parties going U turntastic on this issue,......if only politicians had listened and addressed concerns years ago eh

Labour have since admitted they encouraged mass immigration, and have since admitted they got it wrong. They have admitted they got many things wrong, now we are meant to trust them and forget their mess.
I suppose Burnham is the best of a woeful bunch, which considering he was an integral part of this woeful lot, does not say a lot really.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Yes, really. The Conservative Party didn't manage 40% of the turn-out, let alone 40% of the eligible electorate.

I find it really dull when people go to this. Its our electoral system. We had a vote to change it and chose not to. It was a rsounding victory for them.

 

[Hampster Gull]

He was my preference for leader as well. On a broader scale my beliefs and values are really not being addressed by any party at the moment. I've never felt so at odds with the UK's direction from the right or left before.

You choose to live in the fatherland (and not a bad choice of homeland for people in my view ) so your at odds with uks direction doesn't really mean much

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

Unfortunately for the Labour party they've found themselves in an identical position to the Tories during Blair's reign. They simply could not find an electable leader. In fact even now with Cameron they've only just managed to do it, with him needing two attempts to actually win a majority. A very slim majority at that.

On Labour's side they're faced with a very poor selection of candidates right now and whilst Burnham is the favourite and probably will win the leadership, I can't see him becoming PM unless it's as part of a coalition next time out.

The party needs a radical new face and some serious fresh thinking to combat the threat of a Tory government currently holding all the cards with free reign to mess the country up in the face of no shackles from within parliament and no viable opposition to hold them to account. Although I don't consider myself particularly aligned with him, Chuka Umunna would have been the best leader of the party as he's young, fresh and different. The guy isn't tainted by being part of the previous Labour government, he looks statesmanlike and, let's not beat about the bush, he's black, which would give him (rightly or wrongly) extra kudos from certain sections of the electorate.

I believe Umunna has been very clever with his withdrawal from the leadership race and believes that the party will take longer to heal than between now and the next general election, so has left the party to fight what will likely be another losing election campaign in five years time under somebody else's stewardship, ready for him to rise to power at a time when the party will be in a far stronger position as the groundswell of anti-Tory support will be too great for Osborne's Conservative's to bear.

Many people see this as a cycle just as the Thatcher/Major years gave way to the Blair/Brown years and we're therefore in for at least a decade of the current government. However, the Tory majority is so slim, and the divisions within the party so pronounced that their biggest enemy right now is themselves. Whilst under normal circumstances I'd expect them to hold power next time round, it's very difficult to see how they'd actually gain seats (as incumbent governments never do) when we next go to the polls, after years of austerity measures and a flailing economy. And it will be a flailing economy because overwhelming evidence from across the globe has shown time and time again that austerity measures during and after a recession simply do not work.

With the state of the country meaning the swing voters are going to have abandoned the Tories and regretted their decision in letting them in this time, the Lib Dems likely to have a bit more fight in them under a new leader and swelling membership - and crucially, having shed the poisonous image of Clegg the liar and cosying up to the Tories (a mistake they'll surely never make again in our lifetimes) - how will the Tories have any hope of holding power? Between now and then their majority is only likely to decrease, if anything, and it's not inconceivable that their majority could have even been eroded completely before the next election is called, meaning they'd only be a minority government by that point anyway.

What you need then is an opposition party leader capable of really sticking the knife in and winning back middle England. The Tories will be sitting ducks but Burnham isn't going to be the man with the rifle to finish them off. Instead we'll be back to where we were after Gordon Brown. The economy in a shit state but the incumbent government's opposition not yet credible enough to be considered a worthy alternative. Suddenly we're all looking at coalition options once more.

UKIP support will no doubt increase, as will that of the Green party. But can either party really make any gains in terms of seats won? Especially after the redrawn boundaries to favour the Tories? It seems any gains they could really make will only be very marginal. So we're back to seeing what happens in Scotland. SNP support will no doubt surge and the desire for a second referendum on leaving the Union will rise to the top of the agenda once more. Only this time faced with a Tory majority government and an economy that's doing them no favours, they'll have no reason to vote to stay, feeling they'd be better off by themselves.

So it's down to Scotland and whether the Lib Dems can regroup to become a credible party again. Centrist voters will be missing the Lib Dems right now because both Labour and the Tories have veered off left and right respectively. Burnham may bring Labour closer to the Blairist centre but there's definitely room for the Lib Dems to fight to gain back many of the seats they lost to Tories who'll be very unpopular come the next election, and if they can get them back, we're looking at no overall majority once more.

So what would happen in a coalition next time out? Lib Dems won't be touching the Tories again, but similarly Labour know they can't side with the SNP. UKIP may be natural allies to the Tories whilst the Greens would be open to working with Labour, but neither party has the clout to win enough seats under the present system to be of significance.

That leaves us with the Lib Dems, who had looked all but irrelevant after the May election, potentially holding the balance of power once more. Their new leader strikes a deal with Burnham's Labour, or we are left with a Tory minority government, who'd be battered without the power to push through their policies and unlikely to make it through a full five year term.

OK so this is all a long way off right now and much can change in politics. But is Burnham going to be the man to lead a resurgent Labour party back to power? No. However, is David Cameron's tiny minority going to hold up after years of cuts, poverty and economic depravity? Of course it won't.

The future of multi party politics dictating coalitions and pacts that we all thought was on the cards before this year's election will SURELY bear fruit next time out because otherwise how can anyone realistically expect a majority?

I have to say this is the best post-election analysis I have read anywhere, certainly the case on here and possibly in the press. Excellent work.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

You choose to live in the fatherland (and not a bad choice of homeland for people in my view ) so your at odds with uks direction doesn't really mean much

To you maybe not, but it really does to me. I have a clear idea of how I want things to be and it's a shame that few in my home country share my vision and that I have had to look elsewhere to connect with the values I have. But, that's democracy and I accept it.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I find it really dull when people go to this. Its our electoral system. We had a vote to change it and chose not to. It was a rsounding victory for them.

I agree. We can't force people to vote.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Unfortunately for the Labour party they've found themselves in an identical position to the Tories during Blair's reign. They simply could not find an electable leader. In fact even now with Cameron they've only just managed to do it, with him needing two attempts to actually win a majority. A very slim majority at that.

On Labour's side they're faced with a very poor selection of candidates right now and whilst Burnham is the favourite and probably will win the leadership, I can't see him becoming PM unless it's as part of a coalition next time out.

The party needs a radical new face and some serious fresh thinking to combat the threat of a Tory government currently holding all the cards with free reign to mess the country up in the face of no shackles from within parliament and no viable opposition to hold them to account. Although I don't consider myself particularly aligned with him, Chuka Umunna would have been the best leader of the party as he's young, fresh and different. The guy isn't tainted by being part of the previous Labour government, he looks statesmanlike and, let's not beat about the bush, he's black, which would give him (rightly or wrongly) extra kudos from certain sections of the electorate.

I believe Umunna has been very clever with his withdrawal from the leadership race and believes that the party will take longer to heal than between now and the next general election, so has left the party to fight what will likely be another losing election campaign in five years time under somebody else's stewardship, ready for him to rise to power at a time when the party will be in a far stronger position as the groundswell of anti-Tory support will be too great for Osborne's Conservative's to bear.

Many people see this as a cycle just as the Thatcher/Major years gave way to the Blair/Brown years and we're therefore in for at least a decade of the current government. However, the Tory majority is so slim, and the divisions within the party so pronounced that their biggest enemy right now is themselves. Whilst under normal circumstances I'd expect them to hold power next time round, it's very difficult to see how they'd actually gain seats (as incumbent governments never do) when we next go to the polls, after years of austerity measures and a flailing economy. And it will be a flailing economy because overwhelming evidence from across the globe has shown time and time again that austerity measures during and after a recession simply do not work.

With the state of the country meaning the swing voters are going to have abandoned the Tories and regretted their decision in letting them in this time, the Lib Dems likely to have a bit more fight in them under a new leader and swelling membership - and crucially, having shed the poisonous image of Clegg the liar and cosying up to the Tories (a mistake they'll surely never make again in our lifetimes) - how will the Tories have any hope of holding power? Between now and then their majority is only likely to decrease, if anything, and it's not inconceivable that their majority could have even been eroded completely before the next election is called, meaning they'd only be a minority government by that point anyway.

What you need then is an opposition party leader capable of really sticking the knife in and winning back middle England. The Tories will be sitting ducks but Burnham isn't going to be the man with the rifle to finish them off. Instead we'll be back to where we were after Gordon Brown. The economy in a shit state but the incumbent government's opposition not yet credible enough to be considered a worthy alternative. Suddenly we're all looking at coalition options once more.

UKIP support will no doubt increase, as will that of the Green party. But can either party really make any gains in terms of seats won? Especially after the redrawn boundaries to favour the Tories? It seems any gains they could really make will only be very marginal. So we're back to seeing what happens in Scotland. SNP support will no doubt surge and the desire for a second referendum on leaving the Union will rise to the top of the agenda once more. Only this time faced with a Tory majority government and an economy that's doing them no favours, they'll have no reason to vote to stay, feeling they'd be better off by themselves.

So it's down to Scotland and whether the Lib Dems can regroup to become a credible party again. Centrist voters will be missing the Lib Dems right now because both Labour and the Tories have veered off left and right respectively. Burnham may bring Labour closer to the Blairist centre but there's definitely room for the Lib Dems to fight to gain back many of the seats they lost to Tories who'll be very unpopular come the next election, and if they can get them back, we're looking at no overall majority once more.

So what would happen in a coalition next time out? Lib Dems won't be touching the Tories again, but similarly Labour know they can't side with the SNP. UKIP may be natural allies to the Tories whilst the Greens would be open to working with Labour, but neither party has the clout to win enough seats under the present system to be of significance.

That leaves us with the Lib Dems, who had looked all but irrelevant after the May election, potentially holding the balance of power once more. Their new leader strikes a deal with Burnham's Labour, or we are left with a Tory minority government, who'd be battered without the power to push through their policies and unlikely to make it through a full five year term.

OK so this is all a long way off right now and much can change in politics. But is Burnham going to be the man to lead a resurgent Labour party back to power? No. However, is David Cameron's tiny minority going to hold up after years of cuts, poverty and economic depravity? Of course it won't.

The future of multi party politics dictating coalitions and pacts that we all thought was on the cards before this year's election will SURELY bear fruit next time out because otherwise how can anyone realistically expect a majority?

As HT says, a good post. My comment would be you focus on personaility not policy. There is a line that Labour need to get back to winning middle england or some such and that is the heart of the issue for me. This isnt a socialist country. You also say that the country will be in a mess next election because of austerity. Perhaps but many said the same the last time and it wasn't true. Finally theincumbents did win more seats this time

 

[Hampster Gull]

To you maybe not, but it really does to me. I have a clear idea of how I want things to be and it's a shame that few in my home country share my vision and that I have had to look elsewhere to connect with the values I have. But, that's democracy and I accept it.

I would say we need more HTs here so its a shame your an emigrant but we live in a global economy and movement is good to bond communities. Its great you connect with us back here

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

I would say we need more HTs here so its a shame your an emigrant but we live in a global economy and movement is good to bond communities. Its great you connect with us back here

Thanks. Nice words.

 

[alfredmizen]

To be fair to Burnham, he was talking about immigration , and Labour's failure to empathise with the fears of people who actually have to live with the consequences, over five years ago.