Play off run in. Team by Team.

[CliveWalkerWingWizard]

I just did a quick prediction in my head how many points each team would get - fo all teams I guessed around 14-16 points. I think 74 will be the final place and that will probably be down to goal difference. I think win 5 out of 8 and we will be in the play offs, 4 wins and 2 draws may do it.

 

[Simster]

I don't agree that Blackpool are our biggest worry. Very good side that they are, we had the beating of them at home earlier in the season; we should have closed that game out. And then we played unusually poorly up there last weekend while Phillips took his chances. My concern is Hull - a side that don't score or concede many. In a play off situation, they could nick a goal owing to a defensive f*** up and then not give the opposition a sniff. And if we have an achiles heel, it is our issues defending a set piece, or giving the ball away cheaply in dangerous areas.

Of the teams outside the top 9, I reckon Palace or Ipswich are most likely to break into play off contention. Especially Palace. Anyone with a £56m winger who Champions League clubs are clamouring to sign have got to be taken seriously.

 

[ArcticBlue]

After tonight's games, I'm expecting the final table to look a bit like this:-

91 Southampton
84 West Ham United
------------------------------
84 Reading
75 Middlesbrough
74 Brighton & Hove Albion
73 Birmingham City
------------------------------
73 Blackpool
73 Hull City
71 Cardiff City

Nice!

74 points was my prediction with 10 games to go. Sticking with it and hoping it will be just enough come the shakedown.

 

[army ali]

Interesting thread throwing up loads of permutations and after studying current form v fixtures remaining from the clubs listed in the starting thread, I have come up with the following:

1. Southampton
2. West Ham
3. Reading 83 pts
4. Brighton 76 pts
5. Cardiff 75 pts
6. Blackpool/Birmingham 73 pts each

Our run in I have predicted:

Forrest (A)- D
Middlesboro (H) - W
Burnley (A) - W
Reading (H) - D
West Ham (A) - L
Watford (H) - W
Birmingham (H) - D
Barnsley (A) - W

Total of 15 pts

I have tried to be objective (although my excitement is hard to curtail) and think that the balance has been struck.

Further predictions:

Brighton v Reading Play Off Final (who knows with that one)

 

[Jim D]

It won't just be the 'top 9' that will be the deciding factor - results for Birmingham, Reading and Cardiff this week showed that. At this point in the season it's teams in and around the drop zone that are also difficult to beat (as I'm sure we'll find out on Saturday). From the list, I would say that Reading, Middlesboro and Hull have very difficult run-ins (both Boro and Hull's next 5 could see them drop away from the rest). Cardiff and Blackpool seem to have the easier run-in.

 

[seagullondon]

It would be interesting to see whether or not fans on other forums are doing similar calculations and where they see us finishing

 

[Triggaaar]

You're right .. I did it before Reading went on their run and maybe should change to draw but then I'm thinking we'll get at least 5 of the 9 and not sure which of Boro or Birm to change, maybe both?

I think that's arse about face. IMO, you shouldn't be deciding how many points we'll get and then adjusting the results to suit, you should go with your opinion on each result, and see how many points that leaves us with.

 

[stss30]

Reading have signed Benik Afobe. Good signing I reckon, I think they might pip West Ham to 2nd spot.

 

[Triggaaar]

Of the teams outside the top 9, I reckon Palace or Ipswich are most likely to break into play off contention. Especially Palace.

Anyone with a £56m winger who Champions League clubs are clamouring to sign have got to be taken seriously.

You had me worried there.

 

[Rugrat]

I think that's arse about face. IMO, you shouldn't be deciding how many points we'll get and then adjusting the results to suit, you should go with your opinion on each result, and see how many points that leaves us with.

Not explaining myself well. I've adjusted it a few times and every time it's come out at 76 that's the first point. Second is that I'm now brainwashed with the idea that 76 points is good enough for play offs and so I'm kind of holding back on some games where I think we could do better as a sort of insurance.

Reading is a bit of an anomaly though but "upsets" will happen so maybe it's one? Also very possible that Reading could lose their next three and be on a slump

To be honest I haven't got a clue - just looking at this weekends game I can construct a very simple argument to challenge all of my predictions, even Donny at Saints

My record in March has been shocking so actually this becomes less of a "predictor" and more of a "what if"

 

[Paris]

It would be great to get maximum points out of the Forest, Burnley, Watford and Barnsley games. I know it's not as easy as that unfortunately. 12 points would take us to 73 points. Probably 3 or 4 points shy of a play-off place. West Ham have looked pretty tame infront of a baying Upton Park crowd recently. They haven't really warmed to Allardyce's tactics it seems. If we set out a decent game plan up in the East End in a few weeks then who knows. A win at West Ham would really send out a message.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Agreed - a team seems to do it every year.

Any of Ipswich, Leicester and, dare I say it, Palace could be that team if they win their game in hand and string a run together from there.

Go and sit in the corner and think about what you've done.

 

[Lady Whistledown]

Of the teams outside the top 9, I reckon Palace or Ipswich are most likely to break into play off contention. Especially Palace. Anyone with a £56m winger who Champions League clubs are clamouring to sign have got to be taken seriously.

I know you don't like Palace but there's no need to take the piss re Zaha.











































£95 million, surely.

 

[Napper]

Anyone can beat anyone so its impossible to know , even more so as the season closes out.

Leeds can go so far with Warnock this season but they will be let down by not having the quality.

Leicester have outside chance.

Clubs out of form now may click into form on saturday just like we did V Saints.

No one knows but we are in it and its up for grabs.

With others playing each other we need to get 3 at forest and turn the screw a bit.

You never know , in 3 games time we could be looking out of it or having a slight sniff of 2nd

In our hands

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

The only thing I'm willing to predict is Southampton going up. If I had a house(and was able to) I'd put it on Saints going up. I'd probably put my car on them winning the league too.

For the play offs, it's too tight to call. I think Blackpool, Hull and Cardiff have fairly easy run ins so will be very surprised if at least one of them doesn't make it. Us, Brum and Boro have tougher run ins so likewise I'd be surprised if all three of us got in. Not the most detailed of predictions but about all I'm willing to make at this stage!

 

[imissworthing2]

The only thing I'm willing to predict is Southampton going up. If I had a house(and was able to) I'd put it on Saints going up. I'd probably put my car on them winning the league too.

I'll better that by 1 and say Saints to go up and Cardiff not to make the p/offs. No goal scorer is gonna catch them out.


Other than that anything could happen, tbh I don't really rate any of the teams up there and if we had alittle more experience winning the league/a top 2 finish would have been well within reach.

 

[Rugrat]

The only thing I'm willing to predict is Southampton going up. If I had a house(and was able to) I'd put it on Saints going up. I'd probably put my car on them winning the league too.

For the play offs, it's too tight to call. I think Blackpool, Hull and Cardiff have fairly easy run ins so will be very surprised if at least one of them doesn't make it. Us, Brum and Boro have tougher run ins so likewise I'd be surprised if all three of us got in. Not the most detailed of predictions but about all I'm willing to make at this stage!

Well Southampton are as short as 1/100 so the bookies are behind you there!

Overall run in is one thing but equally important is maintaining momentum and the next 2 games for Blackpool and Hull are bastards and may just derail them if they lose both.

My only real belief is that it's 3 from 6 and talk of Leics, Leeds, Ipswich mounting a challenge are off the mark. Not that any of those can't go on a run but it will need a major balls up from 4 of the 6 to let them in and I just can't see that happening. 1, maybe 2 will fall away (possibly including us) but not 4

 

[turienzo's lovechild]

one thing to consider is the LAST game of the season, where we have a very winnable game away to barnsley who most likely won't have anything to play for

-Birmingham are at home to Reading who might be battling for automatic promotion
-Cardiff are away to Palace who might themselves be in with a shout for a play-off spot and aren't easy to beat
-Ipswich are away to Doncaster who might be in a last minute SURVIVAL SCRAP (or they might just be relegated by then, in which case it'll be quite an easy game)
-Blackpool are away to Millwall (should be winnable to be honest), as is Boro's away trip to Watford
-Hull are away to West Ham who, like Reading should be scrapping it out for an automatic spot

 

[Triggaaar]

To be honest I haven't got a clue

Of course, none of us have (except Silent Bob, he has powers). It's all part of the fun.

 

[Garry Nelson's Left Foot]

Well Southampton are as short as 1/100 so the bookies are behind you there!


My only real belief is that it's 3 from 6 and talk of Leics, Leeds, Ipswich mounting a challenge are off the mark. Not that any of those can't go on a run but it will need a major balls up from 4 of the 6 to let them in and I just can't see that happening. 1, maybe 2 will fall away (possibly including us) but not 4

Smart fellas, bookmakers...

I agree, I think it's three from six too. Really don't think anyone else will be able to barge their way into the top six.