Play-off points needed.... statistically.... historically!

[TheDuke]

When The Championship commenced in the 2004-2005 season, West Ham were in the last place (6th) with 73pts. Since then, the 6th spot was won with 75/75/70/74/70 and last year, Notts Forest earned 75pts for sixth position. That averages out roughly 73pts.

Now for crystal ball time. Albion are on 53 with 13 matches to come (7 at home). So theoretically we only need to average just a touch over 1.5pts a game to reach the magical 73pts or just to be on the safe side... 1.7pts to get to the highest ever number of points needed that clinched that last place i.e 75pts.

Piece of piss... easy peasy! Rock-on the Gus Bus!!!!!!!!

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Yes, but ... this season looks like it's a year when 76 points won't be enough to get into the playoffs.

Points per game needed to reach 76 points:-

West Ham United 1.07
Southampton 1.08
Reading 1.36
Birmingham City 1.57
Blackpool 1.62
Cardiff City 1.64
Middlesbrough 1.64
Hull City 1.67
Brighton & Hove Albion 1.77
Leeds United 2.08

 

[TheDuke]

Yes, but ... this season looks like it's a year when 76 points won't be enough to get into the playoffs.

And why is that my good fellow

 

[Acker79]

If anyone is interested I have finishing points for various finishing places


(click to enlarge)

As you can see, one year 53 points has been enough to stay up (or finish in 21st place or higher) every year for the past 16 years

 

[Lord Bracknell]

And why is that my good fellow

Because EIGHT clubs can get to 76 points more easily than the Albion can. And SEVEN of those can get there by easing off and scoring FEWER points per game than they have achieved so far this season.

 

[Bean]

Out of our remaining games, we win 7 games and draw 3 and we're in the playoffs.

 

[TheDuke]

Because EIGHT clubs can get to 76 points more easily than the Albion can. And SEVEN of those can get there by easing off.

Sorry ol' chap but that does not quite work.

 

[jimhigham]

Not strictly related but sort of...the current form table for the last eight matches has The Gus Bus sitting proudly on top. At least gives hope that we're not just making up the numbers on this run in. We are genuine playoff contenders.

 

[Silent Bob]

Because EIGHT clubs can get to 76 points more easily than the Albion can. And SEVEN of those can get there by easing off and scoring FEWER points per game than they have achieved so far this season.

Well I make the final table based on average points so far this:

West Ham 87
Southampton 86
-------------------
Reading 81
Birmingham 77
Blackpool 76
Cardiff 76
-------------------
Middlesbrough 75
Hull 75
Brighton 73



Maybe I shouldhave rounded up...

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Sorry ol' chap but that does not quite work.

Sorry. But it works for SEVEN of them.

Club / Points per game so far / Points per game to reach 76 points / Conclusion

West Ham United 1.91 1.07 Can ease off
Southampton 1.88 1.08 Can ease off
Reading 1.78 1.36 Can ease off
Birmingham City 1.69 1.57 Can ease off
Blackpool 1.67 1.62 Can ease off
Cardiff City 1.66 1.64 Can ease off
Middlesbrough 1.66 1.64 Can ease off
Hull City 1.65 1.67 Must do better
Brighton & Hove Albion 1.61 1.77 Must do better
Leeds United 1.48 2.08 Must do better

At the very least, we must assume that all clubs are capable of finishing the season at least as strongly as they have played so far. Hence my thought that 76 points MAY not be enough. Your original target of 1.5 points a game henceforth won't get us into the playoffs this season (even though it might have been enough in most seasons). 1.7 might.

 

[happypig]

When gus came we were 20th in league 1, he's been here for 110 league games and we're 35 places higher now so we go up one place every 3.14 games.
Therefore we are, statistically, GAURANTEED to be in the playoffs.

 

[Beach Hut]

I think a lot of this depends on who falls away and what the results are we get against those at the top which are:

(a) West Ham
(h) Reading
(h) Birmingham
(a) Blackpool
(h) Cardiff City
(h) Middlesbrough

Our home form is quite good since the turn of the year so should be interesting to say the least

 

[larus]

When gus came we were 20th in league 1, he's been here for 110 league games and we're 35 places higher now so we go up one place every 3.14 games.
Therefore we are, statistically, GAURANTEED to be in the playoffs.

An interesting stat. That's a big improvement; hope he keeps that rate up for the next couple of seasons.

 

[terryberry1]

I think 76 points will be required to make the play offs. I still think 1 of West Ham or Southampton will slip into the play offs too. We will make it

 

[Silent Bob]

Sorry. But it works for SEVEN of them.

Club / Points per game so far / Points per game to reach 76 points / Conclusion

West Ham United 1.91 1.07 Can ease off
Southampton 1.88 1.08 Can ease off
Reading 1.78 1.36 Can ease off
Birmingham City 1.69 1.57 Can ease off
Blackpool 1.67 1.62 Can ease off
Cardiff City 1.66 1.64 Can ease off
Middlesbrough 1.66 1.64 Can ease off
Hull City 1.65 1.67 Must do better
Brighton & Hove Albion 1.61 1.77 Must do better
Leeds United 1.48 2.08 Must do better

At the very least, we must assume that all clubs are capable of finishing the season at least as strongly as they have played so far. Hence my thought that 76 points MAY not be enough. Your original target of 1.5 points a game won't get us there. 1.7 might.

Blackpool can ease off to the tune of 0.05 ppg, which adds up to 0.6 points over 13 games.

Since you can only get whole points, doesn't that mean they actually can't afford any decline in form?
Even more so for boro and Cardiff.

 

[Notters]

Sorry OP, but I think it was shown last year that it's very much more important how many points the SEVENTH place team has achieved, not the sixth, as we just need to get more than them. Some of the previous sixth placed teams will have had EXCESS points!

 

[Lord Bracknell]

I think a lot of this depends on who falls away and what the results are we get against those at the top which are:

(a) West Ham
(h) Reading
(h) Birmingham
(a) Blackpool
(h) Cardiff City
(h) Middlesbrough

Our home form is quite good since the turn of the year so should be interesting to say the least

The worrying thing is that we have only averaged 1.13 points per game in matches against teams currently in the top half of the table. Eleven teams in the Championship have done better than that.

 

[Tricky Dicky]

I think 76 points will be required to make the play offs. I still think 1 of West Ham or Southampton will slip into the play offs too. We will make it

23 points from 39, with 6 teams above us to play - not going to be easy. Personally I don't think we will quite make it, there are some big clubs up there - but the season will have been a resounding success either way. I can't see WH slipping up much, Saints maybe.

 

[Beach Hut]

The worrying thing is that we have only averaged 1.13 points per game in matches against teams currently in the top half of the table. Eleven teams in the Championship have done better than that.

Doesn't worry me just happy we are in this position as my only expectation this season was to stay in the division.

 

[Lord Bracknell]

Blackpool can ease off to the tune of 0.05 ppg, which adds up to 0.6 points over 13 games.

Since you can only get whole points, doesn't that mean they actually can't afford any decline in form?
Even more so for boro and Cardiff.

My point is that we have to improve our results, if we are going to make the play-offs. Recent results are encouraging, but we might easily suffer from the dip in form we went through before Christmas. Look at the table for games played in December - we were 23rd.