We still have Cardiff, Newcastle, Shampton at home and I think they are all absolutely must wins UNLESS we win a few we are not expected to before the Arsenal and Man City games.
Southampton have a pretty decent set of fixtures, and could well catch us. I think it's all about Cardiff now.
If we beat Cardiff it will mean they'll need 8 points from their other 7 games to catch us. Their fixtures are not encouraging for them. Their 'easiest' games are Burnley & Fulham away, and Palace at home. So, even if they win all three of them, the chances are we'll only need one other point from somewhere. The Cardiff game is pretty huge.