[Football] Own Goals

[One hot tub one ambition]

Noted.

No pressure then to count up all the goals that you have seen in those games. We will have won a game by more than two goals and been involved with a couple more OGs before you manage that

 

[Jam The Man]

No pressure then to count up all the goals that you have seen in those games. We will have won a game by more than two goals and been involved with a couple more OGs before you manage that

I have seen us score 966 goals.
30 og is 3.1%

 

[Solid at the back]

In the PL era I believe it's Jamie Carragher. Mentioned when Skrtel got one for Newcastle on Sunday, as he is just behind.

PG

I think its Richard Dunne with 10, Carragher7, Skrtel 6

 

[8ace]

Thanks [MENTION=1276]AZ Gull[/MENTION] and [MENTION=139]Jam The Man[/MENTION]

This was where I got the 5% from but with only 32 games it's a poor sample:

http://www.skautingtimdif.rs/biblioteka_analize/Evaluation of the goal.pdf

This has the frequency of all the scores:

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/in-126-years-english-football-has-seen-13475-nil-nil-draws/

I'll post my working when I've done it (might be tomorrow now though)

 

[One hot tub one ambition]

I have seen us score 966 goals.
30 og is 3.1%

Fair play! Maybe I meant Chelsea, winning by two goals including an own goal...

 

[KingKev]

From a Liverpool site, red scouse have scored 9,450 goals in their history including 185 oggies (so c 2%) and 491 pens (nearer 5% - although of course during the John Barnes era that would be more like 25% at Anfield).

 

[AlbionPics&SouthCoastTwit]

My goal is always to catch the murderer. If you don't own that goal then you will never catch the person.

 

[8ace]

I'm gonna with 3%, so for every 1000 games:

72 will finish 0-0

98 will finish 1-0
63 will finish 0-1

161 in total, 3% of which is 4.83 - lets call it 5.*
So that means 0.5% of game the stalemate is broken only by an own goal

If we take the previous odds of 8/1 (FGS market) and 10/1 (CS market) and have nominal £1 stake on 1000 games:

FGS -£352
CS -£208

If the own goal is settled as void bet then we get:

FGS -£347
CS -£208

if it's settled as a winner:

FGS -£312
CS -£208

So the CS is clearly the best bet at those prices.

If there is not such a big difference in prices, say, 8/1 and 17/2:

FGS -£312
CS -£316

FGS is the better value but not by much.

So I'd say you'd be better off backing 0-0 if the price is at least one point better.


*I haven't included games where more than 1 goal is scored and all the goals are own goal as they are rare, e.g: 1-1 with two OGs occurs about 1/10000

 

[blue-afro-man]

Anyone got some wet paint that needs watching?