[Albion] Our points total - More or less than we deserve?

[Reddleman]

I have seen a few posts saying we have thrown away/failed to win a lot of points this season. I had posted something similar a month or so ago so thought I would refresh it to see where we currently sit in terms of points gained/lost based on the performances.

Games where we got what we deserved:

- Everton Home (defeat)
- Watford Home (win)
- Man City home (defeat)
- Liverpool Away (draw) - I know some felt we maybe deserved to win the game but we could easily have been 3-0 down and we both had goals rules out for offside.
- Norwich away (draw) - maybe the most contentious in this grouping as we should have had a penalty but they literally missed an open goal and multiple other chances.
- West Ham Away (draw)
- Chelsea Away (draw)
- Brentford Home (win)
- Everton Away (win) - considering they missed a penalty this could be a couple of points gained but overall we deserved to win in my view.

Games where we ‘lost’ points we should have won.

Newcastle Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Arsenal Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Leeds Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Villa away (defeat) - 1 point dropped. I don’t think given the balance of chances in the game this goes down as three points dropped not least because we didn’t actually score.
Palace Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Wolves (defeat) - 1 point dropped very contentious as we arguably didn’t deserve anything as they had a lot of chances but for Mwepu’ miss alone I think we could have got a point.

Total - 10 points dropped.

Games where we ‘gained’ points we didn’t deserve.

Palace Away (draw) - 1 point gained. A robbery that should have given us more of a bounce (see what I did there!)
Brentford Away (win) - 2 points gained. Based on the balance of chances we didn’t deserve 3 points.
Burnley Away (win) - 2 points gained. Arguably this could be three points gained as they could and should have been 3 up at half time. However I will be prudent and say 2 as we played much better second half.
Leicester Home (win) - 2 points gained. We benefited from some very big refereeing decisions in that game and had they gone against us we would have been raging. Again arguably could be 3 points gained.
Southampton away draw) I point gained

Total 8 (minimum) points gained.

So in summary we are very near to the points total that is a fair reflection of where we should be. Of course we would all love more and right now it feels a bit frustrating and as if history is repeating itself but maybe this is just ‘luck’ evening itself out as we certainly were fortunate earlier in the season.

What are people views?

P.s. if you are tempted to post that in every game you get what you deserve one way or another can I politely suggest this isn’t the thread for you.

 

[Swansman]

I agree, think the points are fairly close to what the performances deserve.

 

[CaptainDaveUK]

Before reading your review, my intuitive response to the question was that we have slightly less points than we deserve.

 

[1066familyman]

I think that's an excellent summary in the opening post.

From memory (which admittedly isn't always very good) it all matches, game by game, how I remember it.

So in summary. I agree with everything you say there, and your conclusion.

 

[Jim in the West]

Good summary - I agree with every conclusion, except (possibly) Wolves - not sure we deserved anything at all. You do caveat your conclusion by saying it's contentious

 

[Hugo Rune]

Good write up. Great post.

I’d only take issue with ‘Burnley away’ from your calculations.

Whilst we were awful in the 1st half, when we got going, Burnley absolutely crumbled. They were pathetic. Any team falling away by that much deserves absolutely nothing, I hope they’re playing Championship football next season.

If you’ve drilled your team to play incredibly well in the last 20 minutes (has anyone noticed we’re almost the best at this in the EPL) then you have always got a chance to pick up some points you’d maybe not have deserved from the first half.

So I think our performances deserve 4 more points and that we should be in Man Utd’s position (only 2 places higher).

This is an astonishing progression from last season when we were generally a minimum of 10 places below where I thought we deserved to be.

In summary, I think the squad is only one player off being a top 6 team (and yes, that player is the most important one a team can have, the prolific forward).

 

[oldboyroy]

Good summary and yes, we are about right currently just 2 points short (Friday night). Palace away felt like we robbed them but all in all although we didn't play well we still created equal chances and possession with them.

 

[Mellotron]

I think we’re at about right. We have 1.5 strikers, so it is logical that we won’t always win games where we’re on top.

 

[kevo]

I have seen a few posts saying we have thrown away/failed to win a lot of points this season. I had posted something similar a month or so ago so thought I would refresh it to see where we currently sit in terms of points gained/lost based on the performances.

Games where we got what we deserved:

- Everton Home (defeat)
- Watford Home (win)
- Man City home (defeat)
- Liverpool Away (draw) - I know some felt we maybe deserved to win the game but we could easily have been 3-0 down and we both had goals rules out for offside.
- Norwich away (draw) - maybe the most contentious in this grouping as we should have had a penalty but they literally missed an open goal and multiple other chances.
- West Ham Away (draw)
- Chelsea Away (draw)
- Brentford Home (win)
- Everton Away (win) - considering they missed a penalty this could be a couple of points gained but overall we deserved to win in my view.

Games where we ‘lost’ points we should have won.

Newcastle Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Arsenal Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Leeds Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Villa away (defeat) - 1 point dropped. I don’t think given the balance of chances in the game this goes down as three points dropped not least because we didn’t actually score.
Palace Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Wolves (defeat) - 1 point dropped very contentious as we arguably didn’t deserve anything as they had a lot of chances but for Mwepu’ miss alone I think we could have got a point.

Total - 10 points dropped.

Games where we ‘gained’ points we didn’t deserve.

Palace Away (draw) - 1 point gained. A robbery that should have given us more of a bounce (see what I did there!)
Brentford Away (win) - 2 points gained. Based on the balance of chances we didn’t deserve 3 points.
Burnley Away (win) - 2 points gained. Arguably this could be three points gained as they could and should have been 3 up at half time. However I will be prudent and say 2 as we played much better second half.
Leicester Home (win) - 2 points gained. We benefited from some very big refereeing decisions in that game and had they gone against us we would have been raging. Again arguably could be 3 points gained.
Southampton away draw) I point gained

Total 8 (minimum) points gained.

So in summary we are very near to the points total that is a fair reflection of where we should be. Of course we would all love more and right now it feels a bit frustrating and as if history is repeating itself but maybe this is just ‘luck’ evening itself out as we certainly were fortunate earlier in the season.

What are people views?

P.s. if you are tempted to post that in every game you get what you deserve one way or another can I politely suggest this isn’t the thread for you.

So in total we are two points 'down'? I think your assessment above is pretty much correct.

 

[Guinness Boy]

By now everyone would have played each other had it not been for Covid postponements. The table very rarely lies at this stage. We are where we are on merit. We don't win enough but we are very, very good at not losing.

 

[SeagullsoverLondon]

So in total we are two points 'down'? I think your assessment above is pretty much correct.

Agree with this assessment. But remember nearly every team will end up roughly where they should be in points terms, taking into account the games they should or shouldn't won/draw/lost over a season. Luck tends to balance out

The outlier last year was us, where we significantly underperformed in terms of points we should have gained.
I reckon after 20 games last year we were at least 12 points down on where we "should have been".

This year we have managed to be "less wasteful" than last year, but clearly the biggest difference has been scoring crucial goals at the end of games.
Remember last year we managed to concede a goal "after" the final whistle!

Sent from my moto g(7) power using Tapatalk

 

[The Sock of Poskett]

Think you've pretty much nailed it

 

[Reddleman]

Think you've pretty much nailed it

Thanks, I have to say I found writing the opening post strangely cathartic.

 

[OzMike]

So, to cap it all, 2 points dropped so far.
If we had them we would still be in the same position on the table, but just 1 point away from Wolves.

 

[dazzer6666]

Good write up. Great post.

I’d only take issue with ‘Burnley away’ from your calculations.

Whilst we were awful in the 1st half, when we got going, Burnley absolutely crumbled. They were pathetic. Any team falling away by that much deserves absolutely nothing, I hope they’re playing Championship football next season.

If you’ve drilled your team to play incredibly well in the last 20 minutes (has anyone noticed we’re almost the best at this in the EPL) then you have always got a chance to pick up some points you’d maybe not have deserved from the first half.

So I think our performances deserve 4 more points and that we should be in Man Utd’s position (only 2 places higher).

This is an astonishing progression from last season when we were generally a minimum of 10 places below where I thought we deserved to be.

In summary, I think the squad is only one player off being a top 6 team (and yes, that player is the most important one a team can have, the prolific forward).

This, great post.

 

[Invicta]

Fair summary, felt we should have about 6 pts more but we have definitely stolen a few as you point out. I'll happily take where we are.

 

[GT49er]

About where we deserve, I think. The gods were well and truly against us last season - this season we've had a bit of luck in the other direction. As they always say, it always evens itself out over two seasons....................

 

[theboybilly]

I have seen a few posts saying we have thrown away/failed to win a lot of points this season. I had posted something similar a month or so ago so thought I would refresh it to see where we currently sit in terms of points gained/lost based on the performances.

Games where we got what we deserved:

- Everton Home (defeat)
- Watford Home (win)
- Man City home (defeat)
- Liverpool Away (draw) - I know some felt we maybe deserved to win the game but we could easily have been 3-0 down and we both had goals rules out for offside.
- Norwich away (draw) - maybe the most contentious in this grouping as we should have had a penalty but they literally missed an open goal and multiple other chances.
- West Ham Away (draw)
- Chelsea Away (draw)
- Brentford Home (win)
- Everton Away (win) - considering they missed a penalty this could be a couple of points gained but overall we deserved to win in my view.

Games where we ‘lost’ points we should have won.

Newcastle Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Arsenal Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Leeds Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Villa away (defeat) - 1 point dropped. I don’t think given the balance of chances in the game this goes down as three points dropped not least because we didn’t actually score.
Palace Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Wolves (defeat) - 1 point dropped very contentious as we arguably didn’t deserve anything as they had a lot of chances but for Mwepu’ miss alone I think we could have got a point.

Total - 10 points dropped.

Games where we ‘gained’ points we didn’t deserve.

Palace Away (draw) - 1 point gained. A robbery that should have given us more of a bounce (see what I did there!)
Brentford Away (win) - 2 points gained. Based on the balance of chances we didn’t deserve 3 points.
Burnley Away (win) - 2 points gained. Arguably this could be three points gained as they could and should have been 3 up at half time. However I will be prudent and say 2 as we played much better second half.
Leicester Home (win) - 2 points gained. We benefited from some very big refereeing decisions in that game and had they gone against us we would have been raging. Again arguably could be 3 points gained.
Southampton away draw) I point gained

Total 8 (minimum) points gained.

So in summary we are very near to the points total that is a fair reflection of where we should be. Of course we would all love more and right now it feels a bit frustrating and as if history is repeating itself but maybe this is just ‘luck’ evening itself out as we certainly were fortunate earlier in the season.

What are people views?

P.s. if you are tempted to post that in every game you get what you deserve one way or another can I politely suggest this isn’t the thread for you.

I really don't get where this idea we didn't deserve anything at Selhurst comes from. Apart from a couple of routine saves and a fortunate mess up by Ayew we limited Palace to scraps. They even had to take their best player off as he was largely doing nothing apart from being involved in the penalty. OK it was a late equaliser but that was as much as we deserved for a very, very solid away performance. And the statistics show that up in every sense

 

[Baldseagull]

I have seen a few posts saying we have thrown away/failed to win a lot of points this season. I had posted something similar a month or so ago so thought I would refresh it to see where we currently sit in terms of points gained/lost based on the performances.

Games where we got what we deserved:

- Everton Home (defeat)
- Watford Home (win)
- Man City home (defeat)
- Liverpool Away (draw) - I know some felt we maybe deserved to win the game but we could easily have been 3-0 down and we both had goals rules out for offside.
- Norwich away (draw) - maybe the most contentious in this grouping as we should have had a penalty but they literally missed an open goal and multiple other chances.
- West Ham Away (draw)
- Chelsea Away (draw)
- Brentford Home (win)
- Everton Away (win) - considering they missed a penalty this could be a couple of points gained but overall we deserved to win in my view.

Games where we ‘lost’ points we should have won.

Newcastle Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Arsenal Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Leeds Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Villa away (defeat) - 1 point dropped. I don’t think given the balance of chances in the game this goes down as three points dropped not least because we didn’t actually score.
Palace Home (draw) - 2 points dropped
Wolves (defeat) - 1 point dropped very contentious as we arguably didn’t deserve anything as they had a lot of chances but for Mwepu’ miss alone I think we could have got a point.

Total - 10 points dropped.

Games where we ‘gained’ points we didn’t deserve.

Palace Away (draw) - 1 point gained. A robbery that should have given us more of a bounce (see what I did there!)
Brentford Away (win) - 2 points gained. Based on the balance of chances we didn’t deserve 3 points.
Burnley Away (win) - 2 points gained. Arguably this could be three points gained as they could and should have been 3 up at half time. However I will be prudent and say 2 as we played much better second half.
Leicester Home (win) - 2 points gained. We benefited from some very big refereeing decisions in that game and had they gone against us we would have been raging. Again arguably could be 3 points gained.
Southampton away draw) I point gained

Total 8 (minimum) points gained.

So in summary we are very near to the points total that is a fair reflection of where we should be. Of course we would all love more and right now it feels a bit frustrating and as if history is repeating itself but maybe this is just ‘luck’ evening itself out as we certainly were fortunate earlier in the season.

What are people views?

P.s. if you are tempted to post that in every game you get what you deserve one way or another can I politely suggest this isn’t the thread for you.

The thing is, the home games v Newcastle, and particularly Leeds and Arsenal, we were so much better, whereas some of the games you have put down as points nicked were quite close, Brentford away felt like the least deserved points, they created slightly more and defended well.

 

[Justice]

The league table never lies