Oldham West by election: Result Special...

[Chicken Run]

Tory boys all gone very quiet today as their vote COLLAPSES

4 more years

 

[soistes]

Two things:

First: However people try to spin it, this is a (surprisingly?) good result for Labour

Second: at least two posts in this thread have referred incorrectly to a "shoe in". Before we get any more, can I respectfully point out that the correct term is "shoo in". Nothing to do with shoes - look it up.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

7,000 postal votes. On the doorstep some people couldn't speak English, and they didn't even know who Corbyn was. 7,000 postal votes does seem an awful lot as well. UKIP say this method is outdated.

 

[Man of Harveys]

This thread is great - almost a Pornomagboy moment.

 

[Igzilla]

Oldham West 2015

General Election May 2015 23,360 voted for Labour
By Election December 2015 17209 voted for Labour

a stunning victory and endorsement of the policies of J Corbyn according to corbynistas

Whatever. If you were interested in facts, try looking at by election results since 2010. I'll even provide a link for you:

http://www.ukpolitical.info/ByElections10.htm

As you can see, the turnout for by elections is always lower than in a GE.
Check out the Newark results - CON hold, but with a drop of 10k votes. But, as it was a hold, a stunning CON victory, no?
The first by election after the 2010 GE seems to be Oldham East and Saddleworth (GE Turnout 61.2%, by election turnout 48%), LAB hold, dropped a few hundred votes.

Some by elections see turnouts of less than 20% (Manchester Central, 18.16%), so it's not unusual and frankly, it's straw clutching to see this as anything other than a success for Corbyn, however much you or I or anyone else would like to see it otherwise.

 

[deletebeepbeepbeep]

Haha, the mental leaps that are being made to state that this result is poor for labour. A 'shoo in' indeed quite a few conservative posters on here were concern posting about the possibility of Labour losing and now it is a 'shoo in'. OK. Well done Labour and well done Mr McMahon who seems to have the making of a top class MP.

 

[vegster]

Interesting result on a miserable Thursday by-election in December . One Swallow does not a summer make but it looks like Labour have steadied the ship a little. Bad for UKIP as there was a lot of puff during the week from them saying that they thought they would run Labour very close.
Not unexpected slide for the party in office either, the voters know too well the DC's "all in it together " mantra would not equate to him buying a house in Oldham.

 

[Nibble]

A small but significant result and probably showing the first recorded decline for the Tories even though we know public opinion has waned massively due to a brace of weak U Turns, broken promises and now a war that he can't explain and nobody wants. In four more years they are going to unelectable. I'd be surprised if DC was still leader by then too.

 

[Simster]

As usual,it's difficult to gauge how good or bad this is.

For Labour, their support has held up well - probably helped by yesterday's deeply unpopular Syria bombing vote, which the Labour leader was dead against.

For UKIP, quite poor but with a referendum on the EU just around the corner, what is the point of UKIP now?

For the Tories, well they lost ground. But all governments always do badly in by-elections, there was that Syria vote, and the fact that I can't imagine they pumped resources into fighting the seat.

 

[Simster]

A small but significant result and probably showing the first recorded decline for the Tories even though we know public opinion has waned massively due to a brace of weak U Turns, broken promises and now a war that he can't explain and nobody wants. In four more years they are going to unelectable. I'd be surprised if DC was still leader by then too.

I won't disagree with your assertion that Cameron is a terrible Prime Minister, but do you really believe the weak U-turns are what makes this government unelectable? I think you'll find this bombing campaign and their general economic cluelessness are what will do for them in the end - providing Labour bring in a moderate, media savvy front bench.

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

Oldham West 2015

General Election May 2015 23,360 voted for Labour
By Election December 2015 17209 voted for Labour

a stunning victory and endorsement of the policies of J Corbyn according to corbynistas

So 6,000 drift away and it's spun as a success ?

 

[Nibble]

I won't disagree with your assertion that Cameron is a terrible Prime Minister, but do you really believe the weak U-turns are what makes this government unelectable? I think you'll find this bombing campaign and their general economic cluelessness are what will do for them in the end - providing Labour bring in a moderate, media savvy front bench.

Quite. I just used two examples, could be here all day listing why the public don't support them anymore.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

7,000 postal votes was the number mentioned on the radio. I think if people actually had to get off their backsides the count would have been different here. Did they gather everyone in a room and do a mass sign up of postal votes because I'm sure they also said on the radio that thousands of postal votes also turned up at the same time.

 

[Nibble]

7,000 postal votes was the number mentioned on the radio. I think if people actually had to get off their backsides the count would have been different here. Did they gather everyone in a room and do a mass sign up of postal votes because I'm sure they also said on the radio that thousands of postal votes also turned up at the same time.

Now you sound like Farage. I'm no fan of labour, but a vote is a vote, implying postal votes are somehow inferior positively reeks of sour grapes.

 

[Mackenzie]

I'm glad the Labour Party held onto the seat, despite it's leadership. There are still good people in Labour.

 

[glasfryn]

So 6,000 drift away and it's spun as a success ?

the % was up
thats all you need to know
and yes it is a success
shall I get the violins out for the tories now

 

[beorhthelm]

I love how the right are scrabbling to spin this as a bad labour performance.

its not a bad result, lets be fair though it was an expected win for Labour and little to get excited about. its a 1-0 at home. the elation is indication of shear relief that it didn't go badly.

 

[Gwylan]

I'd be surprised if DC was still leader by then too.

As he's already said he's quitting before the next election so that's scarcely sticking your neck out.

What no-one has mentioned is the shocking performance by Lib Dems. They're traditionally strong in by-elections and it's a geographic region they've historically done well. It was only five years ago they were hitting 8,000 in a GE. To collapse to 1000 votes is an indicator that there's really no way back for the usual party of protest

 

[Blue Valkyrie]

the % was up
thats all you need to know
and yes it is a success
shall I get the violins out for the tories now

Quite.

% is King according to the spin.

 

[Nibble]

As he's already said he's quitting before the next election so that's scarcely sticking your neck out.

What no-one has mentioned is the shocking performance by Lib Dems. They're traditionally strong in by-elections and it's a geographic region they've historically done well. It was only five years ago they were hitting 8,000 in a GE. To collapse to 1000 votes is an indicator that there's really no way back for the usual party of protest

I believe he said he wouldn't continue leadership if they won again. Besides that I meant I think there's a strong possibility he will render the Tories unelectable and be ousted from power by careerist party members long before the next GE