[Albion] Officially not getting relegated.

[sparkie]

Go on, i'll say it. I think we are safe. Marshy thinks I'm an idiot. Maybe I am.

What I mean by "we are safe" is that I don't think 3 of the teams below is will get to 33 points. (I've also factored in that if we lose our remaining games and our competitors don't our GD could get overhauled.

It would be a bit hairy mind. Better for the nerves if we could, you know, not lose our remaining 8 games.

I think it will be something like

Brighton 41
West Ham 36
Watford 34
Bournemouth 32
Villa 31
Norwich 28

No radical departure from current PPG there.

I'm almost an idiot, but not quite fully I hope, as I reckon we need just 1 more win.

I am idiotic enough to think though that it is still possible for us to stay up with what we already have.

 

[Rugrat]

Some stats from the Premier League website just after we lost at home to Cardiff last season (we ended up with 35 points but with our superior goal difference, 34 would have been enough to have finished above Cardiff):


Over the past 23 seasons (since the league was cut to 20 clubs in 1995/96), the 18th-placed team, the highest to go down, have averaged 35.6 points.

So, 36 points would have been enough to stay up on at least 11 occasions, as Southampton did in 2017/18.

Teams with 37 points would have retained their Premier League status in 16 of the past 23 seasons.

Lowest tally: West Bromwich Albion's 34 points in 2004/05 make them the team with the lowest total to remain in the Premier League.

That tally could be enough this season. Brighton & Hove Albion are currently on 33 points, two clear of third-from-bottom Cardiff City, whom they were defeated by on Tuesday night.

Exception to the rule the mythical 40-point barrier was not enough for West Ham United in 2002/03. The Hammers went down despite accruing 42 points, the highest for a relegated side.

Only two other teams have finished in the bottom three with 40 points: Sunderland, in 1996/97, and Bolton Wanderers the following season.

What odds on a new low? Wouldn't surprise me if 33 were enough this year

 

[Jim in the West]

If - and I regard it as a big if - we do lose all of our next seven matches, our goal difference may not be much different from Villa's or B'muff's, especially as to get to 33 points they will have needed to improved their GD.

If I remember rightly, last season we got 3 points from our last NINE games :-(

 

[Icy Gull]

If I remember rightly, last season we got 3 points from our last NINE games :-(

“Shudders” at the memory of just how much we stank the division out in the latter stages of last season. Looking for an excuse NOT to go to a game is a horrible memory

 

[GT49er]

If I remember rightly, last season we got 3 points from our last NINE games :-(

.....and this season we've already bettered that. Looking good, eh?

 

[Change at Barnham]

If we man mark Fernandes on tuesday night and try and keep him off the ball then a draw is more than do-able , 3 points at norwich who cant defend for shit and job done i reckon.

I don't think he'll even start. I've got him in my fantasy league team and was devastated to see United leave him on against Norwich for 120 mins.
I think it's more likely that Pogba starts along with Rashford and Martial with Fernandes on the bench.

 

[Official Old Man]

Please, before anyone else puts down this thread, read my opening post. It was merely a tongue in cheek jest that SSN didn't show us in a relegation caption. 33 points is nowhere near enough. I'd hope for 1 pt Tuesday but worry about the banker 3 points Saturday.

 

[Simster]

Please, before anyone else puts down this thread, read my opening post. It was merely a tongue in cheek jest that SSN didn't show us in a relegation caption. 33 points is nowhere near enough. I'd hope for 1 pt Tuesday but worry about the banker 3 points Saturday.

Banker! [emoji38]

I'd bite your hand off if you offered 2 points from these 2 games!

 

[CheeseRolls]

If - and I regard it as a big if - we do lose all of our next seven matches, our goal difference may not be much different from Villa's or B'muff's, especially as to get to 33 points they will have needed to improved their GD.

No this is not the case. The model assumes they are going to pick up 5/6 points between now and the end of the season. Their goal difference will likely get worse not better. Rememebr this isn't one of those daft scenarios where out of nowhere two teams suddenly become unbeatable.

 

[dazzer6666]

If - and I regard it as a big if - we do lose all of our next seven matches, our goal difference may not be much different from Villa's or B'muff's, especially as to get to 33 points they will have needed to improved their GD.

From losing just 2 of our last 12, and 12/31 this season, we 100% deserve to go down if we lose 7/7.

 

[GT49er]

No this is not the case. The model assumes they are going to pick up 5/6 points between now and the end of the season. Their goal difference will likely get worse not better. Rememebr this isn't one of those daft scenarios where out of nowhere two teams suddenly become unbeatable.

Yes, of course - even if they win two matches, that leaves several for them to lose. Us losing all seven would leave our GD in a considerably worse place though!

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

Man U struggled against Norwich- they have no chance against teams like Brighton..

 

[BLOCK F]

We are not safe yet and dangerously complacent to be already talking about mid-table mediocrity. Reminds me of the “ we’re in the play off final “ boasts before then losing to Palace. Yes, it’s looking encouraging but you’d be wise to refrain from over confidence. This is the Albion we’re talking about.

Agreed.
Slightly different , but look how we 'lost' the Championship a few years back.
As you say, this is the Albion we're talking about.
Nevertheless, I think we'll be ok.

 

[dazzer6666]

 

[sparkie]

Hold The Nerve.

 

[Blue3]

I think we will stay up but it's by no means certain, Saturday's game at Norwich is so important to both teams for us a win almost ensures survival while a draw would not be a bad result it's a must not loose game for us while for Norwich with for what it's worth having home advantage it's a must win game.

Seemingly Its a simple decision for Norwich they must win so assume they are going to put out the most attacking line up they can and we counter this in a Graham Potter way and go for the win or do we approach this game in a more park the bus type of way with the aim of not loosing Chris Houghton way ?

 

[CheeseRolls]

Not getting any closer are they?

 

[CheeseRolls]

Not getting any closer are they?

Ok I have to take that one on the chin.

Sent from my Pixel 3 using Tapatalk

 

[CheeseRolls]

Some bedwetting on here. If we go down, this thread will be the least of our worries.

If you were to put this in one of those fancy infographics, I think we would be over 50% certain to stay up now, if we didn't pick up another point.
This in itself is highly unlikely we are playing with confidence and more points will come. None of the bottom 5 have averaged a point a game over the course of the season and they are all equally bad right now.
The only team who can take points of us is Norwich and if any teams can catch us, it won't be them.

This one didn't quite work out. Another point without too big a swing of goals against, would have been enough, for goal difference survival from this snapshot in time. Definetly a case of the optimists who were looking up at Palace, were more realistic than the doom merchants. Newcastle look to be one of the season's biggest over achievers, they scored less and conceded more than us, yet still managed to get the results to stay above us. Credit to the much maligned Steve Bruce for pulling that one off. His reward will be a sacking soomer rather than later I suspect.