No Southern Trains Most of Next Week -but will probably still be rubbish on the other days

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

These are the only Tory seats in any danger. Given that the next election is over 3 years off and that they're not really worried about the opposition, I don't see it myself.

Croydon Central Gavin Barwell Conservative 165
Brighton Kemptown Simon Kirby Conservative 690
Eastbourne Caroline Ansell Conservative 733
Lewes Maria Caulfield Conservative 1,083

Think you might be underestimating the strength of feeling somewhat. There's huge numbers of commuter constituents at the end of their tether bombarding their local MPs on a daily basis over this issue. It's affecting their lives hugely. Check out #southernfail for example.

 

[spring hall convert]

Think you might be underestimating the strength of feeling somewhat. There's huge numbers of commuter constituents at the end of their tether bombarding their local MPs on a daily basis over this issue. It's affecting their lives hugely. Check out #southernfail for example.

They're not going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn though, are they?
And I'm not convinced Tim Farron is the man to seize the initiative.

They could spin this out for another 2 years, bung a few bribes in the next manifesto for 2020 and it'll be forgotten about. Judging by the aptitude and demeanour of our transport minister, I suspect this might be the plan.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

They're not going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn though, are they?
And I'm not convinced Tim Farron is the man to seize the initiative.

They could spin this out for another 2 years, bung a few bribes in the next manifesto for 2020 and it'll be forgotten about.

Hopefully there will be some sort of credible opposition in place long before 2020. Else we're all f*cked on every level.

 

[spring hall convert]

Hopefully there will be some sort of credible opposition in place long before 2020. Else we're all f*cked on every level.

Let's be totally frank about this, there's an amazing amount of political expediency in the Government's response to this industrial dispute. I'd imagine the Tories are popping the champagne corks at the utter lack of electoral damage it could ever do them. Whether it was pre-planned or just some very canny pragmatism, there is and will be no major political will to resolve it, all the time its potential to damage the government extends to a handful of seats in an election that looks like a whitewash in their favour.

 

[beorhthelm]

I think you'll find that most people, up to to and including the most vehement anti-union Tory voters, are intelligent enough to acknowledge that the level of service provided by Southern is a disgrace on a daily basis, not just on the handful of strike dates.

my delay repay tally for 2016 shows more claims for strikes than normal delays, though know thats only a sample of one. the service from Southern isnt acceptable, but its the unions causing the most impact to services closing the entire network now. there no point lining up Southern and the government while ignoring unions hand in this (and Network rail for their part), if you want solutions you have to look at the whole system and all actors, not cherry pick those that you dislike the most. i dont know why anyone thinks changing the franchise owners will change much on its own - it will still be the same middle managers running the franchise operations, the same rolling stock, the same track and signals, the same government with their objectives, same union with their agenda.

though i do agree its going to be a vote loser if they dont sort it out soon, it will be remembered for a few years those MPs that didn't do much.

 

[Thunder Bolt]

These are the only Tory seats in any danger. Given that the next election is over 3 years off and that they're not really worried about the opposition, I don't see it myself.

Croydon Central Gavin Barwell Conservative 165
Brighton Kemptown Simon Kirby Conservative 690
Eastbourne Caroline Ansell Conservative 733
Lewes Maria Caulfield Conservative 1,083

At least two of those constituencies are going to have boundary changes.

 

[L'hampton Eagle]

Strike is now for 3 days next week but just seen on the news new date announced for further strikes

Mick Whelan, general secretary of ASLEF, the train drivers’ union, announced this morning that the union will be striking for three days next week and for a further three days at the end of this month. Drivers on Southern Railways will now take strike action on Tuesday 10 January; Wednesday 11 January; and Friday 13 January. And on Tuesday 24 January; Wednesday 25 January and Friday 27 January. The overtime ban continues. ‘We are taking a longer-term view of this trade dispute,' said Mick. 'The company has not been prepared to move – it is simply going through the motions, turning up at ACAS, as it did yesterday, and telling us that it intends to impose DOO. We remain committed to a negotiated settlement, as was reached with ScotRail, but it is difficult to negotiate with people who are not prepared to be flexible. We still believe a deal can be done but we are, at the moment, a long way from that position. It is time for the company to come up with a genuine offer rather than carry on posturing.’

 

[beorhthelm]

Which is?

They don't want to lose a whole weeks money??

its so they can get two weeks of disruption in for only one weeks money. they've announced strikes on 24, 25 and 27.

 

[Worthingite]

I think you're being a bit harsh here. I clearly stated I am not a commuter. I'm merely trying to point out that the strike does affect me but in a different way. Hotel airports are not usually pleasant places.

They are, however, marginally better than sleeping on railway station concourses, which is becoming increasingly common with commuters back to the south coast. Just think your gripe is a bit of a first world problem, that's all.

 

[Lower West Stander]

They're not going to vote for Jeremy Corbyn though, are they?
And I'm not convinced Tim Farron is the man to seize the initiative.

They could spin this out for another 2 years, bung a few bribes in the next manifesto for 2020 and it'll be forgotten about. Judging by the aptitude and demeanour of our transport minister, I suspect this might be the plan.

Absolutely.

The unions feel emboldened because they are effectively propping up Corbyn and the Tories know that as long as he's in charge, Labour is unelectable and ineffective.

There's no incentive at all for the Government to agree to anything on this - they lose nothing by sticking it out. Us poor sods who have to put up with this every day only matter when votes are wanted.

 

[The Spanish]

They are, however, marginally better than sleeping on railway station concourses, which is becoming increasingly common with commuters back to the south coast. Just think your gripe is a bit of a first world problem, that's all.

very first world if you are staying at a hotel with its own airport

 

[spring hall convert]

The unions feel emboldened because they are effectively propping up Corbyn and the Tories know that as long as he's in charge, Labour is unelectable and ineffective.

Or let's say that Corbyn does begin to start making headway into the poll deficit, it's not going to be in Sussex and Surrey (outside of 1 or 2 seats.) This dispute is currently an electoral irrelevance and for a number of reasons that is unlikely to change any time soon.

 

[Raskolnikov]

Thameslink?

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

This dispute is currently an electoral irrelevance and for a number of reasons that is unlikely to change any time soon.

Why? There's only so far you can push a third of a million people without something major giving. Even a third of a million normally phlegmatic British commuter people.

 

[Herr Tubthumper]

They are, however, marginally better than sleeping on railway station concourses, which is becoming increasingly common with commuters back to the south coast. Just think your gripe is a bit of a first world problem, that's all.

Everything is relative. I don't think this totally invalidates/negates my issue though.

 

[pearl]

Or let's say that Corbyn does begin to start making headway into the poll deficit, it's not going to be in Sussex and Surrey (outside of 1 or 2 seats.) This dispute is currently an electoral irrelevance and for a number of reasons that is unlikely to change any time soon.

Corbyn is on the way out, even his mate Ken from UNITE wants him out

 

[spring hall convert]

Why? There's only so far you can push a third of a million people without something major giving. Even a third of a million normally phlegmatic British commuter people.

Because Sussex and Surrey isn't going to vote en masse for a Labour Party they see as "hard-left" or a Liberal Democrat Party run by Tim Farron.

I'm not saying it's right but as long as these remain the conditions this dispute is taking place in, it barely features on a list of things for the Tories to worry about. I really doubt Theresa May gives a **** right now. Chris Grayling and his 20k+ majority clearly doesn't.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Chris Grayling and his 20k+ majority clearly doesn't.

Chris Grayling will be out on his ear first time anybody gets a chance to not vote for him. And will be out on his ear from the Tory front bench WAY before then

 

[beorhthelm]

Because Sussex and Surrey isn't going to vote en masse for a Labour Party they see as "hard-left" or a Liberal Democrat Party run by Tim Farron.

the majority in those 4 seats noted are small enough to be at risk simply from commuters not voting for Conservatives, they dont need to put their vote elsewhere.

 

[spring hall convert]

Corbyn is on the way out, even his mate Ken from UNITE wants him out

Very simplistic (and I'm sure you know that.)

What Len said, I imagine, echoes the sentiment of plenty of senior figures on the left. They want to see progress in the polls and Corbyn doesn't have an unlimited time to do that.

However, I'd suggest that the appetite for another leadership contest is extremely low right now. Even if that appetite increases, they'll need to find a decent candidate who wants it. That candidate is likely going to need to be a) From the left of the party b) Not majorly associated with Corbyn and c) Prepared to risk a humiliating defeat.