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[Politics] Next Conservative Leader - Rishi Sunak

Who should be the next leader of the conservative party?

  • Boris

    Votes: 48 17.8%
  • Therese Coffey

    Votes: 3 1.1%
  • Rishi Sunak

    Votes: 107 39.8%
  • Penny Mourdant

    Votes: 31 11.5%
  • Ben Wallace

    Votes: 21 7.8%
  • Jeremy Hunt

    Votes: 4 1.5%
  • Mick Gove

    Votes: 1 0.4%
  • Suella Braverman

    Votes: 4 1.5%
  • Chris Grayling

    Votes: 11 4.1%
  • Matt Hancock

    Votes: 3 1.1%
  • Sir Graham Brady

    Votes: 6 2.2%
  • Jacob Rees-Mogg

    Votes: 18 6.7%
  • Dom Raab

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • Nadine Dorries

    Votes: 11 4.1%
  • Pretty Patel

    Votes: 1 0.4%

  • Total voters
    269
  • Poll closed .


Uh_huh_him

Well-known member
Sep 28, 2011
12,113
From the BBC 20 mins ago:

Almost half of Tory MPs go public with their support​

Almost half of all Tory MPs - 169 out of 357 - have gone public with their support for who they want to succeed Liz Truss as the next prime minister.
The BBC now estimates that Rishi Sunak has reached 100 public backers needed to qualify as a candidate in the leadership race.
The current tally is:
  • Rishi Sunak - 102 MPs
  • Boris Johnson - 46 MPs
  • Penny Mordaunt - 21 MPs
-------------------------------------
Will Boris reach the 100 MPs?

I would have thought the nailed on Boris diehards will have already gone public with their support.

Yes but the 190 undeclareds are probably those most open to "offers" from the candidates.
I suspect this is an area that Boris will flourish in.
 




Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,669
Brighton
There is something else big for which Johnson falsely gets credit, but it has momentarily slipped my mind.
“Leading the world with support for Ukraine against Putin’s war.”

To be fair to him, he did what any UK Prime Minister would have done (other than Corbyn), par for the course.

However, after all the support Putin gave to his Brexit campaign (the Russian report will remain buried until Sir Keir takes over) and subsequent election, Johnson really is the candidate Putin wants in place. A guarantee of national division, chaos and awful governance, what better way to undermine a country that is helping fund the Ukraine war effort.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,096
Faversham
I wasn't suggesting Boris will make a U-turn now - sorry if I didn't make that clear.

The Brexit data is slowly trickling through. Inflation, GDP among a host of nations, it is slowly becoming easier to split off the Brexit effect from Covid, Ukraine etc.
With the passage of time, there will be more, and more data available, telling us what you, I and many others on here, already suspect.

Once this data is out in the public domain and being debated, the wind will change. For this weeks' leadership election however, I agree there isn't a chance that will happen. All three candidates are Brexiteers after all.....
OK, no worries. I get you. I can see that the argument to rejoin may well be strengthened over time, but slowly, and not as a big 'elephant in the room' sudden realization in the minds of the pipple.

My take is that it will be 10 years before the true effects of Brexit are clear and, paradoxically, the longer the passage of time, the less bovvered people will be about it. I myself have given up all hope of a reversal any time soon. Part of the reason Starmer's labour are now credible is they have taken rejoining the EU off the table. Even thought I was a strong remainer I don't see a protracted process of negotiating a re-entry to be a popular or even feasible process.

So it may happen but not for at least 10 years I would estimate. It would need another referendum. It would probably be set (as it should) that to enact major change the threshold to rejoin should be a 60% share of the vote. No, I think this boat has sailed.

There is no way this could be championed by Johnson, either. It would be as absurd as it was having a remainer oversee the leaving (see what happened to May).

And overall, I see it more likely that Johnson would line up foursquare behind chastity, sobriety and cross-dressing, than champion rejoining the EU.

It would be amusing, though.
 


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,096
Faversham
“Leading the world with support for Ukraine against Putin’s war.”

To be fair to him, he did what any UK Prime Minister would have done (other than Corbyn), par for the course.

However, after all the support Putin gave to his Brexit campaign (the Russian report will remain buried until Sir Kier takes over) and subsequent election, Johnson really is the candidate Putin wants in place. A guarantee of national division, chaos and awful governance, what better way to undermine a country that is helping fund the Ukraine war effort.

Don't do that ??? :wink:

Yes, that was the one. And as we know in our dealings with America, it is wonderfully beneficial to have a Special Relationship, at least for the bigger of the partners for whom it costs nothing.

What a guy :facepalm:
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,093
OK, no worries. I get you. I can see that the argument to rejoin may well be strengthened over time, but slowly, and not as a big 'elephant in the room' sudden realization in the minds of the pipple.

My take is that it will be 10 years before the true effects of Brexit are clear and, paradoxically, the longer the passage of time, the less bovvered people will be about it. I myself have given up all hope of a reversal any time soon. Part of the reason Starmer's labour are now credible is they have taken rejoining the EU off the table. Even thought I was a strong remainer I don't see a protracted process of negotiating a re-entry to be a popular or even feasible process.

So it may happen but not for at least 10 years I would estimate. It would need another referendum. It would probably be set (as it should) that to enact major change the threshold to rejoin should be a 60% share of the vote. No, I think this boat has sailed.

There is no way this could be championed by Johnson, either. It would be as absurd as it was having a remainer oversee the leaving (see what happened to May).

And overall, I see it more likely that Johnson would line up foursquare behind chastity, sobriety and cross-dressing, than champion rejoining the EU.

It would be amusing, though.
It could be 10 years away, but look on the bright side.

That could mean the internecine war in the Conservative party that began with Major's bastards a generation ago, could go on until you and I pop our clogs.

Always accentuate the positive, that's what I say.

For now, I'm going to put in some family time before the footie.
 




Motogull

Todd Warrior
Sep 16, 2005
10,475
I'm a bit thick, but my reading of the '22 Com's modified rules are to try to engineer a shoot out between a pair of grown ups. That way the oddball members can't go for a bungle**** or Bungletruss option. I fear that cunning plan ain't gonna work.

Does anyone know how many now support the bungle**** that either resigned or put their letters in? I mean, what has changed? If they considered him unfit then, why now?
 


Hugo Rune

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Feb 23, 2012
23,669
Brighton
“The committee is likely to hold public sessions three times a week. Johnson will be called to give evidence, as well as being given the opportunity to respond to the testimony of other witnesses. One well-placed source said: “November will see maybe 40 hours of oral evidence. Partygate will be front and centre again.”

Another source said the committee had been taken aback by the number of witnesses who wanted to testify, including serving and former Downing Street staff. If serving officials testify and Johnson wins the leadership, it would raise the possibility of the prime minister’s own staff giving evidence that he misled MPs about the parties.

“Some of the witnesses could testify privately, with their identities never being disclosed, under the rules established by the committee, chaired by Harriet Harman, the former Labour deputy leader. Any allegations made anonymously would be shared with Johnson for him to respond.

Downing Street has handed over documents, emails, pictures and messages to the committee. A source with knowledge of the evidence told The Sun: “Boris is screwed.”
 


WATFORD zero

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Jul 10, 2003
27,755
That's because they're hand picking them. Going to constituencies that voted Tory in 2019 and finding some of the staunchest BoJo fans they can.

If they went to Brighton and asked a bunch of randoms I can't think they'd have more than a couple of people out of every 100 who'd even consider it.

It's the Government's directive to the BBC to ensure 'balance'

For every interviewee who is capable of conveying any sort of opinion using rational thinking, facts or logic, they must also interview a full on swivel-eyed looney moron for 'balance'

Do keep up :wink:
 




shingle

Well-known member
Jan 18, 2004
3,223
Lewes
Here's my take amid all the lunacy, on here with the conspiracy theories and out in the country at large.
1) Turkeys don't vote for Christmas, they'll be no GE for two years unless the Conservatives think they're gonna win it.
2) Boris will not become PM again, I think there's the threat that a significant number of his own MP's would resign and stand as independents, therefore reducing his majority, (some say there's as many as 50)
3) Two years down the line, the world is likely to be a much calmer place, Covid in the history books, Ukraine situation resolved, energy and food prices stable as a result, partygate forgotten about. The Conservative government will remind the electorate of the success's of the previous five years and we'll have a much closer election result than we would have if there were an election now.
 




vegster

Sanity Clause
May 5, 2008
28,272
Although Sunak is the clear leader at the moment, what is the betting that at the last minute 30-40 MP's have a " Change of Heart " and pull out of Sunak and go for Johnson ? Almost like its preplanned?
 




shingle

Well-known member
Jan 18, 2004
3,223
Lewes
The current turmoil WILL pass. Some of us are old enough remember (under various governments) interest rates at 10 or was it 12%, house repossessions at record levels because people were told to mortgage to the hilt, black Wednesday, collapse of sterling, three day week, energy rationing, recessions, 2008 financial collapse, strikes that seemed weekly events in the 70's, etc etc.
The problems that we face at the moment are happening everywhere throughout the world. The governments recent decision to cut taxes was a terrible mistake, but the effects of that decision have largely retreated with the change in policy. I spend a lot of time in third world countries around the world where the effects of higher food prices and energy are absolutely disastrous for the people. Just hoping that things start getting back to normal soon.
 








beorhthelm

A. Virgo, Football Genius
Jul 21, 2003
36,014
The current turmoil WILL pass. Some of us are old enough remember (under various governments) interest rates at 10 or was it 12%, house repossessions at record levels because people were told to mortgage to the hilt, black Wednesday, collapse of sterling, three day week, energy rationing, recessions, 2008 financial collapse, strikes that seemed weekly events in the 70's, etc etc.
The problems that we face at the moment are happening everywhere throughout the world. The governments recent decision to cut taxes was a terrible mistake, but the effects of that decision have largely retreated with the change in policy. I spend a lot of time in third world countries around the world where the effects of higher food prices and energy are absolutely disastrous for the people. Just hoping that things start getting back to normal soon.
true. however there's a lot of external turmoil. US bonds have continued up all week, German inflation and PPI (input cost to producers) are record highs. we're in for a recession and the only question is how hard and long. people have become very used to the relative benign markets and cheap money of the past decade or two. a lot of pain coming that was made worse by actions a few weeks ago.
 






Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,093
BBC article:

'Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.
"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.
Why?
Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy.
These races are all about generating momentum, even a sense of inevitability.'

 




Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,096
Faversham
BBC article:

'Within moments of those around Boris Johnson claiming they have hit the threshold of 100 MPs backing the former prime minister, scepticism from other Conservative MPs.
"Hogwash", "absolute garbage", "clearly nonsense" are among the phrases being used.
Why?
Well, the publicly-declared number of backers is much, much lower and — bluntly — his track record when it comes to truth is patchy.
These races are all about generating momentum, even a sense of inevitability.'

As I listen to the end of our game and a valiant display, I do hope you are right. Sadly I'm confident you're wrong o_O
 


Eric the meek

Fiveways Wilf
NSC Patron
Aug 24, 2020
7,093
As I listen to the end of our game and a valiant display, I do hope you are right. Sadly I'm confident you're wrong o_O
It isn't over until it's over.

And even if it is over, and he gets in again, the privileges committee may get him.
Or Boris may have seen the abject poverty* in the Dominican Republic, and undergone an epiphany. (*OK, give me a slap).
Or, more likely he won't have changed, but got worse instead, and will hang himself again.

Whatever happens, it's going to be entertaining. Buy the ticket. Take the ride.
Prepare for the coming GE in Jan 25, possibly a lot earlier.
 


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