[Football] Newcastle sold for £300m,valuing us at ?

[Billy the Fish]

The population of Newcastle is lower than Brighton, and we have a huge catchment area just like they do. They might have a moderately higher fanbase right now because of their history in the top flight, but it's not overly significant surely... and over time we easily have the potential to exceed theirs, with a more affluent population too.

In addition, in terms of material assets, we have a state of the art training ground and stadium in the South. Land value is surely a lot higher than theirs.

We would surely be a better investment and thus worth more money, if thinking surely from a business perspective. You are right though that our relatively low ground capacity limits our potential.

Our fanbase will never be as big or as fanatical as theirs. This is cloud cuckoo land stuff

 

[Taybha]

£3.76

 

[Icy Gull]

God forbid that we ever have a take over like this, I’d rather we were a yoyo/lower league club than be taken over by a regime with such a history of human rights abuse.

Newcastle always have been and always will be a much bigger club than us imo and worth considerably more than us imo

 

[jamie (not that one)]

They have a 50k+ stadium which is (usually) filled and have on paper at least a more valuable squad of players. They are a bigger club than BHA.

Their owner might be a piece of filth, but he has largely kept that club in the top flight without breaking the bank - they have made a profit in 7 of the last 8 seasons, which you certainly can't say about us.

I'd say they are worth significantly more.

That kind of methodical, analytical thinking has no place on NSC. BAN!!!

 

[Simster]

I think people are rounding on [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] a bit unfairly.

There is no doubt Newcastle have a bigger stadium and a much bigger fan base than our club. But football has changed quite significantly and Brighton have gone from 7,000 at home to 30,000 at home every single week in considerably less than a decade.

"We will never get 50,000 at home". You say that, but we've had 30k crowds every week for 2 years, and 25k+ since 2012 regardless of division and the quality of the team. We probably hadn't had more than 10 gates of 30k in our history until the Amex was built. You can also add the significant fact that if people supported their local club, Brighton and Hove Albion would be the biggest club in the country. Let that sink in. It is an important factor because it is a good indication of potential.

Away from fan base size, we also have one of the best training facilities in the country, an academy and the infrastructure in place for the fledgling women's professional league all in place, never mind the Amex.

So whilst we are nowhere near as valuable as Newcastle United, I honestly don't think it would take a huge leap of faith to see that gap somewhat narrowed over a decade or two.

 

[Bozza]

I think people are rounding on [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] a bit unfairly.

There is no doubt Newcastle have a bigger stadium and a much bigger fan base than our club. But football has changed quite significantly and Brighton have gone from 7,000 at home to 30,000 at home every single week in considerably less than a decade.

"We will never get 50,000 at home". You say that, but we've had 30k crowds every week for 2 years, and 25k+ since 2012 regardless of division and the quality of the team. We probably hadn't had more than 10 gates of 30k in our history until the Amex was built. You can also add the significant fact that if people supported their local club, Brighton and Hove Albion would be the biggest club in the country. Let that sink in. It is an important factor because it is a good indication of potential.

Away from fan base size, we also have one of the best training facilities in the country, an academy and the infrastructure in place for the fledgling women's professional league all in place, never mind the Amex.

So whilst we are nowhere near as valuable as Newcastle United, I honestly don't think it would take a huge leap of faith to see that gap somewhat narrowed over a decade or two.

Agreed.

But he said we were worth more NOW, which is clearly utter tosh.

 

[nwgull]

I think people are rounding on [MENTION=7]Mustafa[/MENTION] a bit unfairly.

There is no doubt Newcastle have a bigger stadium and a much bigger fan base than our club. But football has changed quite significantly and Brighton have gone from 7,000 at home to 30,000 at home every single week in considerably less than a decade.

"We will never get 50,000 at home". You say that, but we've had 30k crowds every week for 2 years, and 25k+ since 2012 regardless of division and the quality of the team. We probably hadn't had more than 10 gates of 30k in our history until the Amex was built. You can also add the significant fact that if people supported their local club, Brighton and Hove Albion would be the biggest club in the country. Let that sink in. It is an important factor because it is a good indication of potential.

Away from fan base size, we also have one of the best training facilities in the country, an academy and the infrastructure in place for the fledgling women's professional league all in place, never mind the Amex.

So whilst we are nowhere near as valuable as Newcastle United, I honestly don't think it would take a huge leap of faith to see that gap somewhat narrowed over a decade or two.

I don’t think it’s unfair to tell someone who’s talking shite that they’re taking shite.

It’s one thing filling a stadium in the Premier League, but Newcastle were averaging gates of over 51K in the Championship! We would never do that (even if an extra 20K seats were squeezed into the Amex).

 

[Bozza]

How much would you say we are worth then?

Amex + Lancing training ground alone £150m? Squad value £100m or more? And the business value?

If the club isn't worth £300m I'd be shocked.

I've already posted the most recent valuations I am aware of in this thread. I posted a link to the discussion about those valuations. That discussion includes a link to the methodology used to determine those valuations.

You've considered all of that, right?

 

[Megazone]

The population of the cities may be similar, with Brighton & Hove slightly higher but Newcastle is part of a huge urban area (Shared with Sunderland of course- do you think that the urban area that Brighton & Hove is in could sustain two clubs of that size?). Newcastle get support from Newcastle itself (pretty much exclusive), the rest of the Tyne & Wear area (shared), County Durham (shared with Sunderland and Middlesbrough and a few Yorkshire clubs), Northumberland (pretty much exclusively) and even parts of Cumbria. Newcastle also has a much higher percentage of people living there who are from the area, with Brighton attracting a lot of people from elsewhere (although some do convert of course) so comparing Newcastle and Brighton, Newcastle would have a lot more fans actually living in the city than Brighton. People are less likely to move to Newcastle than Brighton as there are much fewer job opportunities/commuting potential. Having lived in both cities I can tell you that people are just a lot more "into" football up there- it just seems to be something ingrained in them from an early age that if you're from Newcastle then you like football, and guess what? You support Newcastle

there's very little chance of Brighton ever replicating the crowds that Newcastle get

The Brighton & Hove conurbation area is the 15th biggest in the UK, so it's certainly not too far fetched believing we have the potential for crowds like Newcastle one day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom

 

[Megazone]

I don’t think it’s unfair to tell someone who’s talking shite that they’re taking shite.

It’s one thing filling a stadium in the Premier League, but Newcastle were averaging gates of over 51K in the Championship! We would never do that (even if an extra 20K seats were squeezed into the Amex).

How the hell do you know what sort of crowds we'll be able to achieve in 20/30 years time when you look back at the crowds we were getting only 20/30 years ago?

We were never going to get 30k home fans on a regular basis only ten years ago remember. This is a new club now with ever growing potential. The way the city has become more and more internationally recognised whilst the club has grown and grown, who knows where this club could be in a decade or so?

 

[Spiros]

and bearing in mind the amount of trouble and the years of heartache it took to get a stadium that holds 30K, where would we ever get to build a stadium to hold this mythical 50K that some think we could get? A really prolonged process proved that Falmer was the only available site even for a 22.5k stadium. You can't expand the Amex to get to 50K, or even 35K. Without a stadium to hold the numbers a club like ours will never be as big as a club like Newcastle and I for one am very happy with that

 

[Megazone]

and bearing in mind the amount of trouble and the years of heartache it took to get a stadium that holds 30K, where would we ever get to build a stadium to hold this mythical 50K that some think we could get?

It's already been discussed. The Goldstone retail park would be ideal. Not only would it fit a 50k all seater stadium perfectly, but it has much better transport links than The amex and a much better selection of pubs for before and after the match. Heard from an insider the board are already discussing the potential move.

A really prolonged process proved that Falmer was the only available site even for a 22.5k stadium. You can't expand the Amex to get to 50K, or even 35K. Without a stadium to hold the numbers a club like ours will never be as big as a club like Newcastle and I for one am very happy with that

Why would you not want your club to end up being as big as Newcastle considering how small and broken we once were not too long ago? It's the stuff of dreams whats happening to us right now, especially if you attended the Priestfield years and had seen the state of the club then. Let this ambitious growth continue I say.

 

[blue-shifted]

A few points on the above

1) Valuing football clubs is a little imprecise at the best of times. Probably every club has lost about 30% of their value in the last couple of months.
2) Things only really have a value if there's a likelihood of a sale coming through. I can't envisage a scenario where TB would accept an offer for the club. There's nobody who wants it as much as he does.
3) I don't agree with those equating the building and set up costs of the academy and Amex to the value of the club.
4) Our value is about probably not loads more than half Newcastle's at the moment .... but
5) If Newcastle went down, we would suddenly be more valuable
6) More generally, I do agree with those arguing that club size isn't a static concept. We've just had 20 years of being exceptionally well run. In that time we've gone from being (incredibly rough figures) the 65th biggest club in the country to being about the 20th. Just another 10 years of this sort of imaginative, prudent ownership will mean we're in an excellent place to start climbing up the (completely imaginary) list of club sizes and conversations about how we can significantly increase the number of people who can watch home games our fans base might start to become more plausible.

 

[blue-shifted]

It's already been discussed. The Goldstone retail park would be ideal. Not only would it fit a 50k all seater stadium perfectly, but it has much better transport links than The amex and a much better selection of pubs for before and after the match. Heard from an insider the board are already discussing the potential move.




Why would you not want your club to end up being as big as Newcastle considering how small and broken we once were not too long ago? It's the stuff of dreams whats happening to us right now, especially if you attended the Priestfield years and had seen the state of the club then. Let this ambitious growth continue I say.

I love your style mate, but you're claiming you heard from an club insider that they are going to buy the Goldstone retail park to build a new 50k stadium there? TB's prepared to bin off the Amex after only having been there a decade? On the basis of better pubs being available? The self isolation getting to you is it?

 

[Megazone]

I love your style mate, but you're claiming you heard from an club insider that they are going to buy the Goldstone retail park to build a new 50k stadium there? TB's prepared to bin off the Amex after only having been there a decade? On the basis of better pubs being available? The self isolation getting to you is it?

Don't shoot the messenger

 

[blue-shifted]

Don't shoot the messenger

If you think the messenger is talking out of his arse, then I think it's ok to shoot him.

It's an amazing fantasy, that we could one day go back to our spiritual home. I can see why there are some plausible aspects. The retail park and the one where Halfords was, were faring badly even before this crisis took off. The are much better transport links. I expect 25% of our fan base could walk or cycle. It would be the ultimate story of redemption .... but you can't get around ....

1) Why should TB do it? 10 years after bankrolling a new stadium?
2) The footprint isn't there. (well you could combine the Goldstone and Sackville trading estate, knock down the furniture place etc, but what about Newtown Road)
3) Flats are going up in that area, any land that does come available is likely to be snapped up by developers
4) would the council sanction a new stadium, when, there isn't a real need for it?
5) would 40 to 50k be desirable?

 

[Spiros]

It's already been discussed. The Goldstone retail park would be ideal. Not only would it fit a 50k all seater stadium perfectly, but it has much better transport links than The amex and a much better selection of pubs for before and after the match. Heard from an insider the board are already discussing the potential move.




Why would you not want your club to end up being as big as Newcastle considering how small and broken we once were not too long ago? It's the stuff of dreams whats happening to us right now, especially if you attended the Priestfield years and had seen the state of the club then. Let this ambitious growth continue I say.

An 'in-town' site would be better but it's just not available. I can't see any way you could fit a modern 50K stadium on the Retail park site. I still don't think we need it any way. Although we're selling out 30K every week how many of those additional numbers are fans and how many are tourists? I find your insider comment really hard to believe

I went to Priestfield for both seasons and really do think what the club have achieved since is amazing. I also remember that it was over-ambition that got us into trouble in the first place with all of those huge contracts given to players who got us relegated from the old div 1 and then nearly killed off the club as a result. We were not broken because we were small, we were broken because we tried to become too big

 

[stewart12]

The Brighton & Hove conurbation area is the 15th biggest in the UK, so it's certainly not too far fetched believing we have the potential for crowds like Newcastle one day.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_urban_areas_in_the_United_Kingdom

and Tyneside is number 8 on that list and is only a fraction of Newcastle's catchment area

 

[Tom Bombadil]

How much would you say we are worth then?

Amex + Lancing training ground alone £150m? Squad value £100m or more? And the business value?

If the club isn't worth £300m I'd be shocked.

Thats not how you value a business.

 

[Arthur]

I've always thought what this board was lacking was some sort of football finance expert......alas if only we had one!