[Football] Newcastle 0.05 xG v Leicester

[hans kraay fan club]

Ali J who seems to have shot for an xG of 0.01.

Ah, so they DO take into account who has the chance, when deciding the likelihood of scoring...

 

[blue-shifted]

Once every 100 attempts.

In our team at the moment there's nobody who looks like they could score that sort of goal once every thousand attempts

Sent from my SM-A520F using Tapatalk

 

[Mtoto]

Out of interest, do you happen to know whether they factor in WHO the chance falls to?

It is all very well, the dataset decreeing that an unmarked header for 6 yards out, gives you n% chance of scoring a goal, but in reality the genuine % likelihood of that specific chance being converted, by Glenn Murray, or by Jurgen Locadia, is very different

538 definitely take the identity of the shot-taker into account. There a long post on the site about their methodology which confirms it.

Their numbers were also recently described by Kevin Pullein, the Racing Post's stats guru, as the best he'd ever come across, and given that he's rumoured to drive a very flash car on the basis of his profits from football betting, it's possibly a tip worth taking. They call it soccer rather than football, which is obviously irritating, but a small price to pay overall.

 

[Bozza]

538 definitely take the identity of the shot-taker into account. There a long post on the site about their methodology which confirms it.

Their numbers were also recently described by Kevin Pullein, the Racing Post's stats guru, as the best he'd ever come across, and given that he's rumoured to drive a very flash car on the basis of his profits from football betting, it's possibly a tip worth taking. They call it soccer rather than football, which is obviously irritating, but a small price to pay overall.

I was reading FiveThirtyEight earlier. This article scared me so I pretended it didn't exist...

https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...er-league-teams-are-playing-like-they-belong/

 

[Bozza]

...although they have us staying up (by goal difference): https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/soccer-predictions/premier-league/

 

[Mtoto]

Bournemouth, vs Man City last season, are the only home team to register an xG of 0.0 for a PL match on 538 since the start of the 2016-17 season.

Swansea managed it vs Huddersfield in March 2018 (and got a point too, as it finished 0-0).

Everton had an xG of 0.02 at Chelsea in Nov 2016 (lost 5-0).

 

[Uter]

For those interested these are our match by match expected goals/expected goals against since promotion (from understat.com). Positive expected goal difference and actual wins in green. It shows how wretched we were in last season's run-in.

 

[The Lemming Stomper]

nothing to me.

Oh Vienna

 

[um bongo molongo]

Our worst from last season:

0.14 Vs Tottenham (away)
0.13 Vs Palace (away)
0.12 Vs Wolves (away)

Edit:
Oh! Crap!
Liverpool 4-0 Brighton (May 13 2018)
xG
Liverpool 3.51 - 0.04 Brighton

Remembering the Spurs game I’m genuinely surprised it’s as high as that. Don’t remember us ever leaving our half!

 

[um bongo molongo]

For those interested these are our match but y match expected goals/expected goals against since promotion (from understat.com). Positive expected goal difference and actual wins in green. It shows how wretched we were in last season's run-in.

View attachment 115779

Never looked at this. Certainly the run in from Saints onwards looks as bad on this stat as it looked on the pitch. Also backs up the feeling most of us had at the time that we really should have beaten West Ham and Burnley

 

[Invicta]

Remembering the Spurs game I’m genuinely surprised it’s as high as that. Don’t remember us ever leaving our half!

Think we came close (ish) at a corner

 

[Peter Grummit]

For those interested these are our match by match expected goals/expected goals against since promotion (from understat.com). Positive expected goal difference and actual wins in green. It shows how wretched we were in last season's run-in.

View attachment 115779

So, on the basis of net XG alone, Saturday was our worst performance ever in the PL.....

Having also been at the 4-0 Liverpool defeat, that felt more one sided, not least because Locadia played up front on his own and I don't recall him touching the ball without losing it!

PG

 

[Uter]

So, on the basis of net XG alone, Saturday was our worst performance ever in the PL.....

PG

Yes, at least using this particular site's xGs. I'd guess there are lots of places doing their own particular xG analysis and they'd vary slightly.

Looking at the season so far, if you disregard "big 6" matches it's reasonably encouraging IMO. We've out-performed the opposition in every other match using this metric apart from Southampton, and even there we were ahead on xG prior to the sending-off. If we keep that up we'll probably be fine.

I may keep this going as the season progresses.

 

[beefypigeon]

For those interested these are our match by match expected goals/expected goals against since promotion (from understat.com). Positive expected goal difference and actual wins in green. It shows how wretched we were in last season's run-in.

View attachment 115779

Interesting that Chelsea was our worst performance in terms of expected goal difference since we have been back in the premier league.

 

[Lush]

Things that take away from the pure joy of watching a football match

1) Stats
2) VAR
3) Having a fantasy football team

 

[Uter]

Interesting that Chelsea was our worst performance in terms of expected goal difference since we have been back in the premier league.

Yeah, and also 2 of our best 5 in the PL have already happened this season. More extreme expected goal differences either way could be a feature of this season.

 

[Bozza]

Yes, at least using this particular site's xGs. I'd guess there are lots of places doing their own particular xG analysis and they'd vary slightly.

Looking at the season so far, if you disregard "big 6" matches it's reasonably encouraging IMO. We've out-performed the opposition in every other match using this metric apart from Southampton, and even there we were ahead on xG prior to the sending-off. If we keep that up we'll probably be fine.

I may keep this going as the season progresses.

It’s encouraging in that our play should be leading to more goals, which should yield more precious points.

It’s discouraging in that it reinforces that we could be short of the effective firepower to convert that play into real actual goals.

 

[Uter]

It’s discouraging in that it reinforces that we could be short of the effective firepower to convert that play into real actual goals.

True, but in so few games the most likely explanation for the large discrepancy is misfortune, not ability. It's true we've ended up a couple of goals short of our expected season total over the last two seasons (91% and 94%) and you might reasonably expect this in a below average side. I suspect this may be due to having midfielders largely incapable of scoring, but I can't be bothered to delve any further.

But this season we have scored 58% of xG. There is no way on earth we will finish the season at that percentage or anywhere near it. Our luck has been out and there is no reason to believe otherwise IMO.

 

[FatSuperman]

Yes [MENTION=12187]Uter[/MENTION]

You’d expect it if you have poor finishers - they tend to underperform their xG. And also if you look at total xG for a match or period, it feels misleading. Finishing a game with 2.0 xG and no goals, when you’ve had 20 poor quality chances, can’t be as positive as if you’d had four 50/50s. The latter indicates poor luck (or shocking finishers). The former indicates pretty wasteful , speculative shots. Maybe indicative of not getting into dangerous areas.

That said, I do feel we have just been unlucky so far (plus Andone), and hopefully the results will come. I feel we rode our luck a bit in the past two seasons, especially the first.

 

[Mtoto]

Liverpool's xG today was 4.4, one of the highest for any team all season. Leicester's was 0.1. And yet there will no doubt be pundits suggesting that Leicester were "unlucky not to get something from the game".