[News] Morgan Stanley begins move away from London

[Biscuit Barrel]

What's your point? If we stay in the EU our unemployment rate will go the same way as Spain, France etc.? That's nonsensical.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/unemployment-rate
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/spain/unemployment-rate
Look at the long terms graphs. Spain has historically had a much higher unemployment rate than the UK, it was above 15% from 1980 to 2000 - the countries are structurally different. EU membership does not seem to have adversely affected the UK.

All the experts are saying that Brexit will lead to a significant increase in unemployment. The job loss news stories are already starting to appear.
Or have you had enough of listening to the experts?

I think you have selected hearing. Not ALL the expert's are saying that. Mervyn King certainly does not say that.

My point was that unemployment is low in this country because we have a strong and stable work force. This will continue to be the case outside the EU. Being in the EU dies not equate to low unemployment, as the figures show. Or do you believe that evening is Rosie in the EU garden?

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

All a mere pin prick in the rubber thimble of history.

You should have said rubber Johnny. A pin prick in one of those can lead to a lifetime of problems.

 

[Diego Napier]

Bubbles cannot grow forever.

Hmm, glib or crass; which is more apt for your idiom?

 

[yxee]

Hmm, glib or crass; which is more apt for your idiom?

House prices will grow less than they would otherwise have done. Homebuilders have profited enormously from a national housing crisis. I am not so sympathetic that their windfall has slightly decreased.

 

[Prince Monolulu]

 

[El Presidente]

Bubbles cannot grow forever.

What bubble?

 

[alfredmizen]

House prices will grow less than they would otherwise have done. Homebuilders have profited enormously from a national housing crisis. I am not so sympathetic that their windfall has slightly decreased.

House prices were slowing anyway , all down to the extra stamp duty and taking away of tax breaks for buy to let mortgages.

 

[El Presidente]

House prices will grow less than they would otherwise have done. Homebuilders have profited enormously from a national housing crisis. I am not so sympathetic that their windfall has slightly decreased.

As someone who lives close to Manchester, you should already know this. Property prices have risen in the south east, but there has been little gain for the rest of us.

My house is worth no more than it originally cost in 2005. If the expected recession occurs there will be many more people back in negative equity.

By all means say you voted for Brexit for perceived democratic deficit reasons, but at least have the honesty to accept that the decision comes at an economic price in terms of growth, unemployment and less choice, but it is a price you believe is worth paying.

Claiming that the economy would be better off as a result of Brexit has no credibility.

 

[The Birdman]

The first, but will certainly not be the last. There are people worse off than Morgan Stanley employees, but, like them or loathe them, financial services companies employ lots and lots of people and pay a hefty amount of tax. London is going to come under real pressure as a financial centre and jobs will go.

Lots other smaller businesses will suffer however it might help even up the north south divide will all become poorer.

 

[Guinness Boy]

The first, but will certainly not be the last. There are people worse off than Morgan Stanley employees, but, like them or loathe them, financial services companies employ lots and lots of people and pay a hefty amount of tax. London is going to come under real pressure as a financial centre and jobs will go.

I've said this on the main EU thread but it's worth repeating here and adding to El Pres's post.

Any traders or investment bankers who are making money for their bosses absolutely will be offered relocation and generous expat deals to move with their HQ. Just as when I board the tube at Canary Wharf I hear French, German and East European accents all over the place. But with big offices moving here's who will lose out. The secretaries, cooks, cleaners, receptionists and low level admin staff who will not be moved and will be made redundant. The service economy that surrounds the banks - baristas, hotel staff, security guards. In other words the poor, people on minimum wage or just starting out.

In just the same way London and Brighton can afford to lose a bit off property, in fact it's healthy. The people who will end up in negative equity are those in the areas that voted Leave.

Still want to pop the champagne banker haters?

 

[alfredmizen]

I've said this on the main EU thread but it's worth repeating here and adding to El Pres's post.

Any traders or investment bankers who are making money for their bosses absolutely will be offered relocation and generous expat deals to move with their HQ. Just as when I board the tube at Canary Wharf I heajr French, German and East European accents all over the place. But with big offices moving here's who will lose out. The secretaries, cooks, cleaners, receptionists and low level admin staff who will not be moved and will be made redundant. The service economy that surrounds the banks - baristas, hotel staff, security guards. In other words the poor, people on minimum wage or just starting out.

In just the same way London and Brighton can afford to lose a bit off property, in fact it's healthy. The people who will end up in negative equity are those in the areas that voted Leave.

Still want to pop the champagne banker haters?

They would be if was going to happen, it won't though.

 

[Brighton Mod]

Wasting no time at all, Morgan Stanley have already started their flight from London with 2000 jobs moving to Dublin and/or Frankfurt.

With such moves from companies exiting the UK and ignoring the fifth biggest economy in the world, they should think about their customer base and where they live. Buy british may well come back into fashion and as with the arrogant out of touch politicians, we will now see the arrogant out of touch CEOs. They will pay for it in lost revenue streams and customers, EU constraints and tax raids and a failing euro and euro economy, they are all a little too hasty.

 

[Guinness Boy]

They would be if was going to happen, it won't though.

I'm glad you half agree with me for once

I know another American investment bank who are TALKING about Dublin but that is all they are doing. What is worth saying is that you can fairly much move HQ just by establishing an admin office with a nameplate.

However, should we negotiate a shithouse deal over Article 50 then companies will be deserting like rats down a drainpipe, And those negotiations may well yet be led by a Junior Secretary who can't remember the size of the team she led at Barclays or be bothered to publish her tax returns.

 

[Beach Hut]

I've said this on the main EU thread but it's worth repeating here and adding to El Pres's post.

Any traders or investment bankers who are making money for their bosses absolutely will be offered relocation and generous expat deals to move with their HQ. Just as when I board the tube at Canary Wharf I hear French, German and East European accents all over the place. But with big offices moving here's who will lose out. The secretaries, cooks, cleaners, receptionists and low level admin staff who will not be moved and will be made redundant. The service economy that surrounds the banks - baristas, hotel staff, security guards. In other words the poor, people on minimum wage or just starting out.

In just the same way London and Brighton can afford to lose a bit off property, in fact it's healthy. The people who will end up in negative equity are those in the areas that voted Leave.

Still want to pop the champagne banker haters?

Boris advocated all of this as Mayor of London and the GDP value of banking and how much taxation it generated for the UK treasury.

At what point did he lose his marbles and vote leave ?

 

[beorhthelm]

Any traders or investment bankers who are making money for their bosses absolutely will be offered relocation and generous expat deals to move with their HQ.

why assume they will want or need to relocate though? i work for an multinational based in US, European HQ officially in Switzerland, but operationally the Europe business is run out of the London office. those German and French accents are quite likely to be working for German and French banks which have HQ back home, but feel the need to setup substantial operations in London. half a dozen banks in London are really far eastern companies with little EU involvement, and then theres all the commodity and currency trading that could be run from anywhere and they chose London for European hours. people, businesses like it here, HQ with some admin and a postal address for the CEO can move anywhere, the value adding jobs dont need to.

you know this with your remark about name plates. i expect a lot offices to set up in Dublin, buy shares in Irish job agencies, commercial property and Ryan Air.

 

[Guinness Boy]

why assume they will want or need to relocate though? i work for an multinational based in US, European HQ officially in Switzerland, but operationally the Europe business is run out of the London office. those German and French accents are quite likely to be working for German and French banks which have HQ back home, but feel the need to setup substantial operations in London. half a dozen banks in London are really far eastern companies with little EU involvement, and then theres all the commodity and currency trading that could be run from anywhere and they chose London for European hours. people, businesses like it here, HQ with some admin and a postal address for the CEO can move anywhere, the value adding jobs dont need to.

Blimey, you do assume a lot don't you? When you're in a packed tube and these people are talking in English and showing off you get a fairly swift idea of who is and isn't on ex pat deals. I've also said in a subsequent post on this thread you can brass plate an HQ if you want. However, investment banks ARE talking about moving (I know a few traders and work in Financial Services) and if they go through with it the top people will go too. They will pick exactly who they want to come with and incentivise them to do so. I've done plenty of ex pat work in my time and if I was offered generous relocation, a salary in Euros and American School education for my kids I'd take it tomorrow.

 

[El Presidente]

Lots other smaller businesses will suffer however it might help even up the north south divide will all become poorer.

That seems a fractured logic.

Surely if you want to reduce inequality, making everyone poorer is a silly approach.

Why not increase the wealth of the poorest instead?

I'm teaching a class of bankers this week, they are all from over Europe. They don't like Brexit, but have said that their skills are (a) in demand, and (b) easily transferable, so they will go where the work goes.

That isn't the case for the catering staff, the very friendly security guys, the printing staff who produce my lecture notes at short notice and so on. They will lose, not the rich bankers.

 

[El Presidente]

Blimey, you do assume a lot don't you? When you're in a packed tube and these people are talking in English and showing off you get a fairly swift idea of who is and isn't on ex pat deals. I've also said in a subsequent post on this thread you can brass plate an HQ if you want. However, investment banks ARE talking about moving (I know a few traders and work in Financial Services) and if they go through with it the top people will go too. They will pick exactly who they want to come with and incentivise them to do so. I've done plenty of ex pat work in my time and if I was offered generous relocation, a salary in Euros and American School education for my kids I'd take it tomorrow.

I'd ensure a Lithuanian cleaning lady/au pair too if I were you #NodsHeadKnowingly

 

[El Presidente]

why assume they will want or need to relocate though?

Why? For convenience. Presently most Eurobond clearing takes place in London. The ECB is based in Frankfurt, it could easily request that those transactions take place within the EU itself, ideally Frankfurt, especially as it is responsible should any EU banks crash in a similar manner to that of Lehman.

The value of such transactions runs into trillions of euros.

 

[El Presidente]

Buy british may well come back into fashion .

Buy British what though?

Cars? Televisions? Clothes? Steel? Ships? Coal? Computers? Mobile Phones? Bananas?