[News] Middle East conflict

[Zeberdi]

I realised I didn’t really answer your question @GingerBeerMan sorry but imo Iran would be a much harder adversary than Iraq for a number of reasons (just a lay person’s opinion!)

Even the war in Iraq took 8 years; cost the US an estimated $3 trillion and caused an estimated 461,000 deaths in Iraq. American forces are still based in Iraq 13 years later - It was a pyrrhic victory and Saddam’s regime was a tough nut.


We learnt a lot of lessons from that war, not least:

• that you need an exit strategy before you commit,
• you need to be sure of your intelligence, and have clear objectives.
• you need a concensus of opinion and most of all
• leave the world more stable than it was before you went in.

The War in Iraq against Saddam Hussein failed on every count above imo. but there were aspects that would have made it easier than launching a similar campaign against Iran;

• It was a very broad international coalition against terror that was fighting the Ba’ath Party and Saddam‘s Republican Guard
• the allied troops were able to launch an invasion from Kuwait - I doubt Iraq would be willing for Israel and western allies to launch an attack from Iraq on Iran.
• Iran is also like Afghanistan very mountainous
• at the first sign of attack, Israel would be fighting an onslaught of very well armed militia groups with an impressive missile arsenal on 3 fronts - Yemen, Lebanon, Syria ( and possibly Hamas in Gaza still) as well as Iran.

We went into Iraq under the pretence of looking for WMDs but it was all about regime change. I think it would be very difficult to see out that objective today - wars always have mission creep and always last much longer than the protagonists say it will. The public has lost its appetite for expensive and protracted conflicts.

 

[Bakero]

I asked if Iran would pose a tougher foe that Sadam Hussain, you seem pretty clued up. Any idea?

In terms of personnel, we're talking similar numbers. Iraq had one of the largest armies in the world under Saddam and Iran are up there in terms of numbers. Likewise, both have (had) a fair bit of kit.

Iran have been cut off from the international arms market since the revolution other than some sales from Russia. They have a lot of domestically produced gear though.

Compared to Israel, Iran's budget is rather small though (about a third). And obviously Israel have all the latest tech.

 

[Zeberdi]

In terms of personnel, we're talking similar numbers. Iraq had one of the largest armies in the world under Saddam and Iran are up there in terms of numbers. Likewise, both have (had) a fair bit of kit.

Iran have been cut off from the international arms market since the revolution other than some sales from Russia. They have a lot of domestically produced gear though.

Compared to Israel, Iran's budget is rather small though (about a third). And obviously Israel have all the latest tech.

Yes these points in addition to the attempt at an answer I gave @GingerBeerMan above - although don’t forget Iran has an enormous stockpile of ballistic missiles and have been supplying Russia with those too.

(It would be interesting what impact an war with Iran might have on the Russian Ukraine war - )

 

[armchairclubber]

(It would be interesting what impact an war with Iran might have on the Russian Ukraine war - )

Would it now.

You're talking it up again.

I'd rather not see it myself.

 

[armchairclubber]

Redirect Notice

Return to sender

 

[borat]

Israel now attacking the occupied West Bank

 

[GingerBeerMan]

I realised I didn’t really answer your question @GingerBeerMan sorry but imo Iran would be a much harder adversary than Iraq for a number of reasons (just a lay person’s opinion!)

Even the war in Iraq took 8 years; cost the US an estimated $3 trillion and caused an estimated 461,000 deaths in Iraq. American forces are still based in Iraq 13 years later - It was a pyrrhic victory and Saddam’s regime was a tough nut.


We learnt a lot of lessons from that war, not least:

• that you need an exit strategy before you commit,
• you need to be sure of your intelligence, and have clear objectives.
• you need a concensus of opinion and most of all
• leave the world more stable than it was before you went in.

The War in Iraq against Saddam Hussein failed on every count above imo. but there were aspects that would have made it easier than launching a similar campaign against Iran;

• It was a very broad international coalition against terror that was fighting the Ba’ath Party and Saddam‘s Republican Guard
• the allied troops were able to launch an invasion from Kuwait - I doubt Iraq would be willing for Israel and western allies to launch an attack from Iraq on Iran.
• Iran is also like Afghanistan very mountainous
• at the first sign of attack, Israel would be fighting an onslaught of very well armed militia groups with an impressive missile arsenal on 3 fronts - Yemen, Lebanon, Syria ( and possibly Hamas in Gaza still) as well as Iran.

We went into Iraq under the pretence of looking for WMDs but it was all about regime change. I think it would be very difficult to see out that objective today - wars always have mission creep and always last much longer than the protagonists say it will. The public has lost its appetite for expensive and protracted conflicts.

Thanks for taking the time to write these replies.

 

[armchairclubber]

 

[nicko31]

So the Israeli's are now levelling buildings in Lebanon in non-Hezbollah areas that may contain their potential new leader, missiles into the west bank killings 18, oil prices spiking as there's talk of attacking oil facilities.

FFS..

 

[nicko31]

BAE, Rolls Royce....

 

[GingerBeerMan]

This is horrific. How can our governments still be supporting this regime? It's truly maddening.

 

[The Clamp]

BAE, Rolls Royce....

Although I obviously agree with everything said in the video, for some reason it really annoyed me.

 

[sydney]

i just can't believe , that at this stage in our supposed human development , we are considering sanctioning a major obliteration ........this is fuckin unreal and has global implications , can't believe it ....totally ridiculous.

 

[The Clamp]

i just can't believe , that at this stage in our supposed human development , we are considering sanctioning a major obliteration ........this is fuckin unreal and has global implications , can't believe it ....totally ridiculous.

££££$$$$$

 

[armchairclubber]

Although I obviously agree with everything said in the video, for some reason it really annoyed me.

And so it should. You'd think that there might be grounds to arrest someone for crimes against Humanity.

At least I would.

 

[Crawley Dingo]

I think Israel will hit Iran's Oil depot on the island in the Gulf next.

 

[SeagullinExile]

I think Israel will hit Iran's Oil depot on the island in the Gulf next.

Yep. Then Iran will fire another salvo of missiles and/or possibly close down the Straights of Hormuz.

 

[borat]

Our "Ally". Intended for blackmail/kompromat?

Boris Johnson found 'bugging device in his toilet' after visit from Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu

Boris Johnson has claimed a bugging device was found in his bathroom after a visit from Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

www.lbc.co.uk

 

[armchairclubber]

The BBC documentary

Surviving October 7th: We Will Dance Again: www.bbc.co.uk/iplayer/episode/m0023b3m via @bbciplayer


AL Jazeera documentary on the anniversary of October 7th

 

[armchairclubber]

BAE, Rolls Royce....

'Hundreds of university research grants went on projects with BAE Systems, an arms dealer which supplies Israel.'

£1 billion subsidy for arms company exposed

Hundreds of university research grants went on projects with BAE Systems, an arms dealer which supplies Israel.

www.declassifieduk.org

Did Israel bomb British doctors with UK-supplied weaponry?

UK arms firms have supplied parts for Israel’s F-16 jets, which bombed a British medical charity in Gaza.

www.declassifieduk.org