Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Kinky Gerbil]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/hospital-figures-covid-cases-misleading/

One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients currently classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.

On Thursday night, Tory MPs accused the Government of making "flawed decisions based on misleading data", with leading scientists questioning why the true picture was only now beginning to emerge.

Since last March, the NHS has published daily statistics on the number of Covid hospitalisations and the total number of patients in hospital with the virus.

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/29/hospital-figures-covid-cases-misleading/

One in four patients classed as a Covid hospitalisation is being treated for other reasons, official data reveal, prompting claims that the public has been misled.

For the first time, the NHS national stocktake establishes how many patients categorised as Covid hospitalisations had another primary cause of admission. The data shows that of 5,021 patients currently classed as hospitalised by Covid, 1,166 were admitted for other reasons.

On Thursday night, Tory MPs accused the Government of making "flawed decisions based on misleading data", with leading scientists questioning why the true picture was only now beginning to emerge.

Since last March, the NHS has published daily statistics on the number of Covid hospitalisations and the total number of patients in hospital with the virus.

Was Hancock fiddling something else?

 

[e77]

If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

They were getting on with treating people.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

They were getting on with treating people.

Good job the article says now.

 

[beorhthelm]

If someone had another condition made worse by Covid that caused them to be hospitalised then it is entirely legitimate to include them in the figures. In the middle of a pandemic did you seriously expect hospitals to hold a case conference for every admission or just follow the guidelines and mark it as Covid case? If people came into hospital for another reason then caught Covid then they were in hospital with Covid.

They were getting on with treating people.

if public policy may be determined by whether people are being hospitalised with covid, or in hospital with covid, we better be sure we count the incidence correctly.

as it is, even with the miscounting we have seen the link between cases and hospitalisation broken, so its academic.

 

[dazzer6666]

Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.

 

[The Clamp]

Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.

All trying to keep the Covid money train chugging along.
All aboard!
Calling at;
Contracts for chums parkway
Tax free lump payment central
And keep us in the headlines south.

One way only. No buffet cart.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Yet more modelling scaremongering out of SAGE……..(DT extract)

Modellers warned of ‘1m cases a week’ even as third wave was subsiding

A day before cases peaked at 60,000, government scientists were saying that ‘stringent Covid measures’ could be needed
By
Sarah Knapton,
SCIENCE EDITOR
30 July 2021 • 9:30pm

Government modellers predicted that cases could hit one million a week in a last-minute warning ahead of "Freedom Day".

Documents released by the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies on Friday show that scientists forecast increasing numbers of cases and said they expected July 19 to bring "further waves of infections, hospitalisations and deaths".

The statement of "concerns" from the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (SPI-M) subgroup on July 14 also reveals that the modellers believed the ending of restrictions may have to be reversed.

Conversation

Freddie Sayers
[MENTION=10773]fred[/MENTION]diesayers
Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico:

“I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.”

But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.

 

[dazzer6666]

Conversation

Freddie Sayers
[MENTION=10773]fred[/MENTION]diesayers
Prof Neil Ferguson tells Politico:

“I’m quite happy to be wrong if it’s wrong in the right direction.”

But why is making overly pessimistic forecasts an error in the right direction? The fact that gov scientists think that way has enormous consequences.

I think he revels in it……..I completely get that modelling will predict some grim outcomes (and much better ones), that’s the point. What’s lost is any balance - the extreme/pessimistic end of the scale is what he seems to delight in promoting, and the media jump on it.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

As it stands looks like the government called it correctly on the 19th and on personal responsibility on masks

This of course could change!

 

[e77]

As it stands looks like the government called it correctly on the 19th and on personal responsibility on masks

This of course could change!

Can only speak for myself but the Health Secretary suggesting 100,000 cases a day did somewhat shape my views on the subject.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

Interesting to see how dead this sub forum has become, clearly Covid is now old news and everyone just wants to know how to book their foreign holiday or how to get into The Amex!

 

[Billy the Fish]

Interesting to see how dead this sub forum has become, clearly Covid is now old news and everyone just wants to know how to book their foreign holiday or how to get into The Amex!

Nothing much to talk about now, I assume most have had the vaccine and are getting on with their lives.

I can think of a few posters, recently very quiet, who might pipe up if cases rise again

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

Nothing much to talk about now, I assume most have had the vaccine and are getting on with their lives.

I can think of a few posters, recently very quiet, who might pipe up if cases rise again

The thing that concerns me is those doom and gloom merchants may have inadvertently caused a backlash situation whereby things ain't so bad as predicted and those who still need help, like the clinically vulnerable, are now largely forgotten by those that just see rapidly diminishing case numbers.

 

[e77]

The thing that concerns me is those doom and gloom merchants may have inadvertently caused a backlash situation whereby things ain't so bad as predicted and those who still need help, like the clinically vulnerable, are now largely forgotten by those that just see rapidly diminishing case numbers.

I think the Health Secretary practically guarenteing 100,000 cases a day had more impact than anyone on NSC on that front.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I think the Health Secretary practically guarenteing 100,000 cases a day had more impact than anyone on NSC on that front.

Yes, he was clearly wrong to follow the science on that one.

 

[Fat Boy Fat]

I think the Health Secretary practically guarenteing 100,000 cases a day had more impact than anyone on NSC on that front.

To be honest I was thinking less Crodo and more off piste and had my eye on the modellers and the likes of Prof Ferguson, with their Armageddon forecasts and of course Mr Javid, who has played a blinder since becoming Health Secretary, even taking one for the team and catching Covid, just to prove we shouldn’t “cower” from it...

 

[e77]

Yes, he was clearly wrong to follow the science on that one.

I suspect the government were going to continue with their unlocking schedule regardless.

 

[beorhthelm]

Javid was playing the Scotty Principle when he regurgitated the high end estimates, as it was prudent to do so.

 

[Randy McNob]