Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[wehatepalace]

I am actually quite a fun person in the flesh.

I've got no doubt you are, but your online persona doesn't come across that way, especially during the covid times, however I'd gladly buy you a pint and have a chat about all things albion !

 

[Machiavelli]

This - good post......there is also going to be a significant cohort that suffered more from Covid than they otherwise might have done because they had another illness (their 'original' illness if you like) at the time they went into hospital. Trying to extract 'true' numbers is going to be impossible but will be interesting to see what data does come out.

Seen a few reports today and some data showing that the Euros had a material impact on case numbers - in some cases M to F ratio of people infected going to 9-1 (not through attending games, but watching games in enclosed spaces). Might explain why we're a couple of weeks behind Scotland on the curve as they got knocked out early

The 9:1 ratio was mentioned on R4 Today this morning, in reference to Scotland. It spiked to that during the early stages of the Euros from a 1:1 ratio beforehand, to which it has now returned.

 

[LamieRobertson]

It is so obvious this constant picking at figures is an attempt to say Covid isn't as bad as people make out at (or at least was as bad).

It's obvious. We see you.

Oh do me a favour that’s utter cobblers to put it politely

 

[e77]

Oh do me a favour that’s utter cobblers to put it politely

Excess deaths were up round the world but that doesn't seem to be good enough and every attempt is made to demean the figures them from certain quarters, including:

They caught it in hospital
They died with Covid and not because of Covid
They would have died anyway
They were old so it didn't matter that much

Along with this we have such party favourites as:

Lockdown didn't reduce infections
Masks don't work
Social distancing had no impact
Vaccines don't work or are a conspiracy (admittedly that is a bit of an outlier and is a minority)

Not saying you have said any or all of these but after 18 months of this, where the scientific community has studied it in detail to develop understanding and several million people have died globally (including 160k in this country) can we please stop trying to treat it as anything less than a life threatening disease that at long last we are getting on top of but every time we have tried to take a shortcut with it has come back to haunt us.

I really hope the run of daily infections decreasing continues but excuse me if I don't start kissing the guns just yet.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Excess deaths were up round the world but that doesn't seem to be good enough and every attempt is made to demean the figures them from certain quarters, including:

They caught it in hospital
They died with Covid and not because of Covid
They would have died anyway
They were old so it didn't matter that much

Along with this we have such party favourites as:

Lockdown didn't reduce infections
Masks don't work
Social distancing had no impact
Vaccines don't work or are a conspiracy (admittedly that is a bit of an outlier and is a minority)

Not saying you have said any or all of these but after 18 months of this, where the scientific community has studied it in detail to develop understanding and several million people have died globally (including 160k in this country) can we please stop trying to treat it as anything less than a life threatening disease that at long last we are getting on top of but every time we have tried to take a shortcut with it has come back to haunt us.

I really hope the run of daily infections decreasing continues but excuse me if I don't start kissing the guns just yet.

Anyway going back to the original point …so well covered by Joey Jo …accurate reporting of figures and dissecting of same is rather important I would have thought and shouldn’t be seen as an attempt at brushing things under the carpet

 

[Brighton & Love]

If you don't have a vaccine and/or wear a mask then you are making it more likely you will give the disease onto other people. I really don't give a monkeys if you and your friends find me overly negative or judgemental.

Agreed, but same as if you don't eat fruit and veg plus exercise everyday. Your body will be more prone to catching a virus than those who make the effort to improve their immune system through healthy living and a healthy mind, vaccine or not.
If you're happy just sitting around, eating crap and letting your body just turn into shit, vaccine/mask or not, you're still in a lot of danger health wise. You can't just put all empathisis on a mask and a vaccine for fighting a virus. Yes these Vaccines can save lives and yes these mask can prevent the aresol in your breath from spreading as far, but we still have to do our bit too to make this world a healthier place.

My neighbour eats Burger King, smokes and drinks alcohol everyday plus he probably weighs more than 2 people put together. What worries me is he thinks he's perfectly safe now and not a threat to anyone, so walks around making no effort whatsoever in making himself healthier as a human whilst bragging about being a saviour to others now he's taken his 2 vaccines. I really do feel sorry for him. It seems the vaccine has given him the argument that he's a healthy human being now which he clearly isn't. He's got bad health written all over him. That's not how you fight illness.

 

[Weststander]

Excess deaths were up round the world but that doesn't seem to be good enough and every attempt is made to demean the figures them from certain quarters, including:

They caught it in hospital
They died with Covid and not because of Covid
They would have died anyway
They were old so it didn't matter that much

Along with this we have such party favourites as:

Lockdown didn't reduce infections
Masks don't work
Social distancing had no impact
Vaccines don't work or are a conspiracy (admittedly that is a bit of an outlier and is a minority)

Not saying you have said any or all of these but after 18 months of this, where the scientific community has studied it in detail to develop understanding and several million people have died globally (including 160k in this country) can we please stop trying to treat it as anything less than a life threatening disease that at long last we are getting on top of but every time we have tried to take a shortcut with it has come back to haunt us.

I really hope the run of daily infections decreasing continues but excuse me if I don't start kissing the guns just yet.

“Tried to take a shortcut”.

There’s no evidence yet of the planned, staged and gradual unlocking causing a marked third or fourth wave in deaths.

At the very least hold your fire.

What we do know is that far more businesses now have a chance of surviving, countless long term jobs/careers hang on that and young people in particular now have some semblance of living a norm life.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Excess deaths were up round the world but that doesn't seem to be good enough and every attempt is made to demean the figures them from certain quarters, including:

They caught it in hospital
They died with Covid and not because of Covid
They would have died anyway
They were old so it didn't matter that much

Along with this we have such party favourites as:

Lockdown didn't reduce infections
Masks don't work
Social distancing had no impact
Vaccines don't work or are a conspiracy (admittedly that is a bit of an outlier and is a minority)

Not saying you have said any or all of these but after 18 months of this, where the scientific community has studied it in detail to develop understanding and several million people have died globally (including 160k in this country) can we please stop trying to treat it as anything less than a life threatening disease that at long last we are getting on top of but every time we have tried to take a shortcut with it has come back to haunt us.

I really hope the run of daily infections decreasing continues but excuse me if I don't start kissing the guns just yet.

So you don't care where they caught it?

Not to stop poor infection control, stop the same mistakes happening in the future? or get correct stats on vaccine?

also:

from ONS site

More than half (around 41,000) of the 76,000 excess deaths, from all causes, in England and Wales in 2020 occurred in private homes. A further 25,000 occurred in care homes.

The contribution of COVID-19 to this increase in deaths in private homes is small, at just over 3,000. The increase of non-COVID-19 deaths in private homes is 30% above the five-year average.

so its not as straight forward as you make out

getting the numbers right may not be important to you, but I imagine it is to those who plan these things.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Not really…..what Peston was ranting about makes a difference of less than 1% to the published numbers as things currently stand.

This, however, is more interesting (DT extract)

Exclusive: Over half of Covid hospitalisations tested positive after admission
Leaked data suggest vast numbers classed as being hospitalised by the virus when they were admitted with other ailments
By
Laura Donnelly,
HEALTH EDITOR and
Harry Yorke,
WHITEHALL EDITOR
26 July 2021 • 9:45pm

Experts said the news meant the national statistics may far overstate the levels of pressures on the NHS

More than half of Covid hospitalisations are patients who only tested positive after admission, leaked data reveal.

The figures suggest vast numbers are being classed as hospitalised by Covid when they were admitted with other ailments, with the virus picked up by routine testing.

Experts said it meant the national statistics, published daily on the government website and frequently referred to by ministers, may far overstate the levels of pressures on the NHS.

The leaked data – covering all NHS trusts in England – show that, as of last Thursday, just 44 per cent of patients classed as being hospitalised with Covid had tested positive by the time they were admitted.

The majority of cases were not detected until patients underwent standard Covid tests, carried out on everyone admitted to hospital for any reason.

Overall, 56 per cent of Covid hospitalisations fell into this category, the data, seen by The Telegraph, show.

Crucially, this group does not distinguish between those admitted because of severe illness, later found to be caused by the virus, and those in hospital for different reasons who might otherwise never have known that they had picked it up.

I think the Daily Telegraph is slightly over-egging the news.

What the statisitics mean, I think, is that 44% of people arrive at hospital knowing they have covid, and the chances are that covid is what is sending them there - either on its own, or because it is reacting with another condition and making it worse. 43% have not been tested for covid before they get there; they may be arriving with suspicion of covid, or they may be arriving for a completely different reason, we don't know. And 13% do not have covid when they arrive, and catch itin hospital.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Unless we have evidence to prove he is right or wrong then we cannot form an opinion.

What we do know is that the hospital figures over the next month or so will give us an idea as to what is going on out there.

https://fullfact.org/health/robert-peston-reinfections/

 

[dazzer6666]

Some of the reasons I decided (after a lot of thought) not to get the jab include the following:

Personal:

- Unsure of any long-term unknowns of getting the jab (nobody is) - the jabs are based on long-researched components
- Do not need it/no real risk of hospitalisation little, perhaps but not 'no risk'
- Believe that the body fighting pathogens such as covid naturally is preferable ideally yes, but natural isn't an option with so many getting seriously ill/killed
- Strongly suspect I've already been exposed to it anyway, and have somewhat of an immunity me too - I was in Asia for 3 weeks when it all kicked off - but that's total guesswork

Societal:

- I know I would take appropriate action to protect others if I was positive/had symptoms (unlike others) IF you knew - what about asymptomatic transmission which - as you say you are fit, well and at no risk, would be most likely ?
- I test daily to support the above using unreliable LFTs ?
- Believe that natural immunisation is best for everyone long-term ideally yes, but no time for that - where would be be if everyone thought that ?
- I have opted in to NHS covid-related research. If they contact me, I would help out if I can as an unvaccinated person. Eg. antibody research.

that doesn't do anything to stop you getting it, or stop you infecting - potentially vulnerable - others now though

.....

 

[dsr-burnley]

As I test every day, I am less likely to infect others than those who are vaccinated and don't test every day.

Purely out of interest and in no spirit of criticism, what is your long term plan? To test every day for the rest of your life? To get vaccinated? Or to stop testing but still not get vaccinated?

 

[dsr-burnley]

There is no long-term plan, as we are coming close to the medical conclusion of the pandemic in this country.

That's like me asking you - what's your long-term plan - are you going to continue to get vaccinated 2-3 times a year for the rest of your life?

I expect I will catch covid at some point, if I haven't already. At the very least, I have been/ I will continue to get exposed to it, just like any other bug. If I have a long-term plan, it is simply to live with it. I will stop testing once there is a medical conclusion, when the waves have softened into a seasonal bug, which will likely be from the new year.

That's answered the question even though you say it couldn't be answered.

My long term plan is to be vaccinated as often as recommended. (And I'm on the flu jabs list now!)

 

[dazzer6666]

There is no long-term plan, as we are coming close to the medical conclusion of the pandemic in this country.

That's like me asking you - what's your long-term plan - are you going to continue to get vaccinated 2-3 times a year for the rest of your life?

I expect I will catch covid at some point, if I haven't already. At the very least, I have been/ I will continue to get exposed to it, just like any other bug. If I have a long-term plan, it is simply to live with it. I will stop testing once there is a medical conclusion, when the waves have softened into a seasonal bug, which will likely be from the new year.

Assume what Gove has said today doesn’t change your mind……will you miss out on much ?

Michael Gove has described people refusing to get vaccinated against Covid as "selfish" and suggested they could be "barred" from more venues in future.

With ministers considering plans to impose new restrictions on people who have not been double vaccinated from the autumn, Mr Gove said those refusing to take up the offer of a jab were putting other people's "lives at risk".

Speaking during a visit to Glasgow on Tuesday, the Cabinet Office minister urged people who had not had their first jab to "get vaccinated" and warned that their ability to attend certain events could otherwise be curtailed.

His intervention comes days after Boris Johnson announced that people attending nightclubs from the end of September will be required to show proof of double vaccination.

Since then, The Telegraph has revealed that the Government is looking at extending the mandatory requirement to include the Premier League and other spectator seated events with a capacity of more than 20,000.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Assume what Gove has said today doesn’t change your mind……will you miss out on much ?

Michael Gove has described people refusing to get vaccinated against Covid as "selfish" and suggested they could be "barred" from more venues in future.

With ministers considering plans to impose new restrictions on people who have not been double vaccinated from the autumn, Mr Gove said those refusing to take up the offer of a jab were putting other people's "lives at risk".

Speaking during a visit to Glasgow on Tuesday, the Cabinet Office minister urged people who had not had their first jab to "get vaccinated" and warned that their ability to attend certain events could otherwise be curtailed.

His intervention comes days after Boris Johnson announced that people attending nightclubs from the end of September will be required to show proof of double vaccination.

Since then, The Telegraph has revealed that the Government is looking at extending the mandatory requirement to include the Premier League and other spectator seated events with a capacity of more than 20,000.

Its a bluff, people can see through it.

 

[Billy the Fish]

It's all the hospital's fault is the new argument

No, no it isn't.

That's you muddying the waters and trying to twist people's words into something they're not, in order to deflect from that actual point because it doesn't suit your predetermined view.

There's probably an official internet name for it that I'm not aware of.

 

[e77]

Agreed, but same as if you don't eat fruit and veg plus exercise everyday. Your body will be more prone to catching a virus than those who make the effort to improve their immune system through healthy living and a healthy mind, vaccine or not.
If you're happy just sitting around, eating crap and letting your body just turn into shit, vaccine/mask or not, you're still in a lot of danger health wise. You can't just put all empathisis on a mask and a vaccine for fighting a virus. Yes these Vaccines can save lives and yes these mask can prevent the aresol in your breath from spreading as far, but we still have to do our bit too to make this world a healthier place.

My neighbour eats Burger King, smokes and drinks alcohol everyday plus he probably weighs more than 2 people put together. What worries me is he thinks he's perfectly safe now and not a threat to anyone, so walks around making no effort whatsoever in making himself healthier as a human whilst bragging about being a saviour to others now he's taken his 2 vaccines. I really do feel sorry for him. It seems the vaccine has given him the argument that he's a healthy human being now which he clearly isn't. He's got bad health written all over him. That's not how you fight illness.

Fair point.

 

[e77]

No, no it isn't.

That's you muddying the waters and trying to twist people's words into something they're not, in order to deflect from that actual point because it doesn't suit your predetermined view.

There's probably an official internet name for it that I'm not aware of.

My point is we all need to agree it is still a fairly serious - although much improving - situation and do all we can to reduce the spread. I think people draw some sense of comfort in thinking things like the main cause is it spreading in hospitals.

E77ing?

 

[dazzer6666]

DT extract this morning - hopefully going to be reciprocated for us :

The UK is reopening to the world. Britain is to drop restrictions for double vaccinated people and reopen its border to European and American travellers from next month.

Boris Johnson has decided that, from Aug 16, the fully vaccinated will not be required to take a test if they come into contact with someone with Covid unless they have symptoms.

It had been reported that workers would only be released from self-isolation after a negative test.

With Covid cases falling for a seventh successive day, the Prime Minister also decided to reopen the country to foreign tourists from the EU and North America who have been fully vaccinated. Travel to the UK without quarantine was previously only possible from a handful of green list countries.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

DT extract this morning - hopefully going to be reciprocated for us :

The UK is reopening to the world. Britain is to drop restrictions for double vaccinated people and reopen its border to European and American travellers from next month.

Boris Johnson has decided that, from Aug 16, the fully vaccinated will not be required to take a test if they come into contact with someone with Covid unless they have symptoms.

It had been reported that workers would only be released from self-isolation after a negative test.

With Covid cases falling for a seventh successive day, the Prime Minister also decided to reopen the country to foreign tourists from the EU and North America who have been fully vaccinated. Travel to the UK without quarantine was previously only possible from a handful of green list countries.

Biden is senile. I’m not sure he will

Most other places are