Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[crodonilson]

Or, if you are worried after the 19th you can stay away from those places, wear a mask, Social distance ?

I will certainly stay away from mass super spreader events until cases are much lower but I still need to shop, work, see family and friends which I would like to do safely but that is practically impossible if all other restrictions are removed and people go back to their previous norms, cases will be huge.

 

[dazzer6666]

Cases now up a staggering 72% week on week, there was a hope that coming up to 19th July at very worst the growth would be slowing from the approx 40% weekly growth when Boris announced the extension to restrictions. I can't see how with cases now rapidly accelerating we can consciously reopen society completely, just what on earth would that do to cases rates and ultimately hospitalisations?? Certainly at the very least I think if he is to drop the 2m distancing (bad move) other mitigations must remain in place. ALso these Euro super spreader events, as much as it is a joy to see supporters in stadia, there is no distancing, no mask wearing, no bubbles, the government should be seriously looking at the decision to raise capacity, if anything it should go back to the 25% capacity employed across the majority of Europe.

....but deaths and admissions are only up 10% (that's 11 people, in a week, across the whole of the UK) and 11% in the same period..........................we need to accept that it's a managed, risk-accepted growth in numbers situation at this point whilst we see what happens. Encouragingly, the number in hospital remains low - for example locally just 0.52% of hospital beds in our region are occupied with Covid patients. Those admitted are getting less seriously ill, treatment is improving and they are leaving hospital more quickly.

We're now in the process of learning to live with Covid, not attempting to eliminate it. There have been articles published in the last few days suggesting publishing the infection data now has little relevance - it's the hospitalisations and deaths that are key.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

I will certainly stay away from mass super spreader events until cases are much lower but I still need to shop, work, see family and friends which I would like to do safely but that is practically impossible if all other restrictions are removed and people go back to their previous norms, cases will be huge.

Most food Shops are Open 24/7 - you can visit friends in private settings, you can WFH (or find a job that allows it) plus the vaccine

There are plenty of options for those in your shoes.

 

[The Clamp]

I will certainly stay away from mass super spreader events until cases are much lower but I still need to shop, work, see family and friends which I would like to do safely but that is practically impossible if all other restrictions are removed and people go back to their previous norms, cases will be huge.

Deaths and admissions are very low. I understand people's reticence but the UK has to open up and people are just going to have to get over their understandable but baseless fear.

 

[atomised]

Deaths and admissions are very low. I understand people's reticence but the UK has to open up and people are just going to have to get over their understandable but baseless fear.

Fully agree. Hopefully in time their fear too will ease. Some I'm sure will stick with mitigations for a while to come but what I see now is large numbers eager to return to a normality

 

[crodonilson]

Deaths and admissions are very low. I understand people's reticence but the UK has to open up and people are just going to have to get over their understandable but baseless fear.

Hospitalisations have more than trebled in the last 6 weeks, that number is still fairly low but if cases continue to increase 70% weekly and then snowball even quicker as restrictions are lifted that number can quickly get very difficult for the NHS. We should also not forget long covid, something like 10% of people suffer with long covid who have had the virus, when there are 30,000 daily cases that is an uncomfortable number of sufferers and this affects all age groups. The UK has already opened up which is why we now have more cases daily than the whole of the EU combined. The problem isn't just about now it's what the situation now will pose for another resurgence in Autumn and Winter when respiratory infections really soar and we do not know how long the vaccines give protection for. Do we just throw the towel in now and accept huge daily case numbers and the damage that will have on people now and in the next 6 months??

 

[The Clamp]

Hospitalisations have more than trebled in the last 6 weeks, that number is still fairly low but if cases continue to increase 70% weekly and then snowball even quicker as restrictions are lifted that number can quickly get very difficult for the NHS. We should also not forget long covid, something like 10% of people suffer with long covid who have had the virus, when there are 30,000 daily cases that is an uncomfortable number of sufferers and this affects all age groups. The UK has already opened up which is why we now have more cases daily than the whole of the EU combined. The problem isn't just about now it's what the situation now will pose for another resurgence in Autumn and Winter when respiratory infections really soar and we do not know how long the vaccines give protection for. Do we just throw the towel in now and accept huge daily case numbers and the damage that will have on people now and in the next 6 months??

I'm not sure where you are getting your figures from but the UK needs to open and the figures support this. It's now time to live with Covid. Stay indoors if you wish, I've been going to work to care for some of the most vulnerable to covid in our society all through lockdown and I need a long break and a holiday in the sun. As do many others. I'm genuinely sorry you're scared but that's for you to deal with, we need normality now.

 

[dsr-burnley]

I'm not sure where you are getting your figures from but the UK needs to open and the figures support this. It's now time to live with Covid. Stay indoors if you wish, I've been going to work to care for some of the most vulnerable to covid in our society all through lockdown and I need a long break and a holiday in the sun. As do many others. I'm genuinely sorry you're scared but that's for you to deal with, we need normality now.

"hospitalisations have more than trebled" is based on Sunday 16th May. That day, 78 people were admitted to UK hospitals. If any other day this year had been chosen, or a weekly average, or any of the more standard statistical techniques, then hospitalisations wouldn't have trebled.

Incidentally, the number of people in hospital that day was 939. It's now 1,795. Not even doubled.

 

[LamieRobertson]

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...607-8fa8-f8c92041143a&utm_content=immediately
SAGE report on the impact of school closures on children’s mental health etc
Relates back to February ..but only just published.
If you’ve time it might be an interesting read

 

[e77]

trouble is people dont want to work much later into the evening or get up much earlier in the morning. so we'll only shift commuting by about an hour either side of 9-5. in places like London that'll mean 2-3 hours of near full trains, tubes, and buses, vs an hour of overcrowding. working from home will make far more impact than changing hours.

As I said elsewhere the trains might need to adjust (although what that would do for defining peak period is another conversation). A couple of places I worked at in London had moved to 0930-1000 starts anyway - which was a pain because the trains from the Sussex Coast are geared towards 0900 starts in the City and around.

Get people in for 4 or 5 hours then let them go again. Even trains between 4 and 5 out of London are relatively quiet.

 

[e77]

Deaths and admissions are very low. I understand people's reticence but the UK has to open up and people are just going to have to get over their understandable but baseless fear.

Baseless is a bit harsh. Getting run over by a bus doesn't stop me leaving the house but I still look both ways before crossing the road.

 

[Yoda]

Hospitalisations have more than trebled in the last 6 weeks, that number is still fairly low but if cases continue to increase 70% weekly and then snowball even quicker as restrictions are lifted that number can quickly get very difficult for the NHS. We should also not forget long covid, something like 10% of people suffer with long covid who have had the virus, when there are 30,000 daily cases that is an uncomfortable number of sufferers and this affects all age groups. The UK has already opened up which is why we now have more cases daily than the whole of the EU combined. The problem isn't just about now it's what the situation now will pose for another resurgence in Autumn and Winter when respiratory infections really soar and we do not know how long the vaccines give protection for. Do we just throw the towel in now and accept huge daily case numbers and the damage that will have on people now and in the next 6 months??

I do not know where you're getting you % of people getting long covid from. It is no where near 10%.

https://youtu.be/O-BRuiSV-o8?t=1021
Skip to 17:02 if that doesn't work.

In short, a recent study into Long Covid from 1.2million anonymous GP records showed 45,096 had symptoms (Long Covid) for 12 weeks or more. 3.8%
Of those 45,096, 1.2% were in their 20's. 2 thirds of all infections are in the under 30's atm, so based of those figures in the study. 0.045% of the current cases will develop "Long Covid", which equates to about 8 per day.

Oh, and for the record just under 5% of the 45,096 were middle aged.

*figures corrected

 

[crodonilson]

I do not know where you're getting you % of people getting long covid from. It is no where near 10%.

https://youtu.be/O-BRuiSV-o8?t=1021
Skip to 17:02 if that doesn't work.

In short, a recent study into Long Covid from 1.2million anonymous GP records showed 45,096 had symptoms (Long Covid) for 12 weeks or more. 0.038%
Of those 45,096, 1.2% were in their 20's. 2 thirds of all infections are in the under 30's atm, so based of those figures in the study. 0.00045% of the current cases will develop "Long Covid", which equates to less than 1 per day.

Oh, and for the record just under 5% of the 45,096 were middle aged.

More than 2m according to react study, massively under reported in GP records and this number will only rise further now we're seeing huge daily cases.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-57666620

 

[dsr-burnley]

I do not know where you're getting you % of people getting long covid from. It is no where near 10%.

https://youtu.be/O-BRuiSV-o8?t=1021
Skip to 17:02 if that doesn't work.

In short, a recent study into Long Covid from 1.2million anonymous GP records showed 45,096 had symptoms (Long Covid) for 12 weeks or more. 0.038%
Of those 45,096, 1.2% were in their 20's. 2 thirds of all infections are in the under 30's atm, so based of those figures in the study. 0.00045% of the current cases will develop "Long Covid", which equates to less than 1 per day.

Oh, and for the record just under 5% of the 45,096 were middle aged.

It's 3.8% actually. I think you forgot to multiply by 100. But as you say, the figure for a predominantly young cohort of sufferers will be lower than for an old cohort.

Out of interest, I wonder what the percentage of people getting "long flu" is. It certainly isn't nil, because virus lung diseases do cause long term damage; but I suspect it will be lower than covid by quite a bit. I wonder if it's ever quoted?

 

[stewart12]

I currently have Covid....I can confirm that it's really grim

and I've been double vaccinated

 

[Yoda]

It's 3.8% actually. I think you forgot to multiply by 100. But as you say, the figure for a predominantly young cohort of sufferers will be lower than for an old cohort.

Out of interest, I wonder what the percentage of people getting "long flu" is. It certainly isn't nil, because virus lung diseases do cause long term damage; but I suspect it will be lower than covid by quite a bit. I wonder if it's ever quoted?

Very true. I've amended them.

I think I could be one of your "long flu" sufferers (if there is such a thing). I had a very bad case of it in Feb 2019, laid out for just over 2 weeks. I still suffer with a shortness of breath even now that never used to be there prior to it.

 

[dsr-burnley]

More than 2m according to react study, massively under reported in GP records and this number will only rise further now we're seeing huge daily cases.

You're going the other way from Yoda. You're 100 times out, too high. (Subject to confirmation, of course!)

The problem is that if you say that Long Covid is a desperate, debilitating disease, and is causing severe long term problems for people who suffer from it, and 98-99% of the people who suffer from it have not been diagnosed by their doctor - then people won't believe the figures. What you're doing is confusing the figures. There is severe long Covid, and I have no idea how many cases there are but the GP estimates of 25k - 45k are the best starting point we have. And there is the wider definition, where still having a bit of a cough, or being just a little less fit that you were 12 weeks ago, counts as long Covid even though it is mild. But calling for massive government intervention on the basis, partly, of 80 year olds whose cough hasn't fully gone away after a chest infection? It makes a farce of it. You need to use realistic figures to make your point.

 

[Yoda]

I currently have Covid....I can confirm that it's really grim

and I've been double vaccinated

I hope you don't suffer too badly from it Fingers crossed the vaccine will still do some of it's job and clear it up for you within a few days.

 

[nicko31]

Cases now up a staggering 72% week on week, there was a hope that coming up to 19th July at very worst the growth would be slowing from the approx 40% weekly growth when Boris announced the extension to restrictions. I can't see how with cases now rapidly accelerating we can consciously reopen society completely, just what on earth would that do to cases rates and ultimately hospitalisations?? Certainly at the very least I think if he is to drop the 2m distancing (bad move) other mitigations must remain in place. ALso these Euro super spreader events, as much as it is a joy to see supporters in stadia, there is no distancing, no mask wearing, no bubbles, the government should be seriously looking at the decision to raise capacity, if anything it should go back to the 25% capacity employed across the majority of Europe.

I know we test a lot, but yesterday we recorded more cases than the EU27 combined. I can't see how we can dump on restrictions when the number of cases of rising 70% in a week. I'm immensely relieved they weren't relaxed on 21st June, imagine the multiple super spreader events in packed pubs watching England?

Our vax programme has been great and we so close to getting everyone protected . Pursuing population immunity through infection seems just crazy

For every million infected 10-20% will end up with long covid and who knows the long term consequences of this?

 

[dsr-burnley]

I know we test a lot, but yesterday we recorded more cases than the EU27 combined. I can't see how we can dump on restrictions when the number of cases of rising 70% in a week. I'm immensely relieved they weren't relaxed on 21st June, imagine the multiple super spreader events in packed pubs watching England?

Our vax programme has been great and we so close to getting everyone protected . Pursuing population immunity through infection seems just crazy

For every million infected 10-20% will end up with long covid and who knows the long term consequences of this?

Releasing the restrictions would make very little difference to that. By and large, young people are either in the camp of "we don't think this is dangerous, let's eat drink and be merry" or "this is dangerous, and even if the government tells me restrictions are ended, I'm not going to raves or night clubs or other big bashes". The number who stayed away from a crowded room to watch England because the rules said so, but would have gone to watch if the rules hadn't said so, is not that high IMO.