Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Lyndhurst 14]

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9734447/Hopes-fade-UK-travel-corridor-summer.html

UK / US corridor unlikely to reopen this summer

 

[dsr-burnley]

Nearly 23,000 cases today, this wave is not slowing, it is accelerating rapidly, up 70% weekly average compared to previous week. Fortunately deaths are low (albeit we know this is partially weekend lag) but these cases could in a few weeks time start putting quite some pressure on hospitals.

Fortunately? This isn't just a matter of luck. The reason deaths are low is because so many people, especially the vulnerable, have been vaccinated. That isn't luck. The Daily Telegraph todays says that no person over 50 who has been double jabbed, has died of coronavirus.

 

[dsr-burnley]

The hospitalisation rate and number in hospital will be far more critical than the number of infections in terms of influencing lockdown easing I think…..going to be interesting to see where the vacc progress dissects the admission figures because there’s a lag with them as well. If quite a few are testing positive but not many are getting seriously ill then there’s no reason not to unlock.

On 20th May, the 7-day average number of daily cases was 2,500. Two weeks later, 3rd June, it had doubled to 5k. 17th June, it had doubled again to 10k. There's a fair chance that by 1st July it will be 20k, because as of yesterday it was 17k.

Throughout May, the number of patients in hospital was around 900 all month. It is now 1,500. These extra cases are not translating to extra patients in hospital.

 

[dazzer6666]

On 20th May, the 7-day average number of daily cases was 2,500. Two weeks later, 3rd June, it had doubled to 5k. 17th June, it had doubled again to 10k. There's a fair chance that by 1st July it will be 20k, because as of yesterday it was 17k.

Throughout May, the number of patients in hospital was around 900 all month. It is now 1,500. These extra cases are not translating to extra patients in hospital.

They clearly are, just not at anything like the same rate..................the question is going to be one of 'what is an acceptable level of hospitalisations we can live with ?' and how that translates into % of cases. The vacc programme will hopefully prevent that even being an issue as the entire adult population gets their two doses

 

[Bozza]

On 20th May, the 7-day average number of daily cases was 2,500. Two weeks later, 3rd June, it had doubled to 5k. 17th June, it had doubled again to 10k. There's a fair chance that by 1st July it will be 20k, because as of yesterday it was 17k.

Throughout May, the number of patients in hospital was around 900 all month. It is now 1,500. These extra cases are not translating to extra patients in hospital.

But you have just highlighted that extra cases absolutely ARE translating into extra patients in hospital since 1,500 is more than 900.

The good news is that the conversation ratio of cases -> hospitalisation has lessened considerably, which is probably what you were trying to say.

However, with cases rising exponentially, hospitalisations will also rise exponentially, just with a small exponent.

I'm not saying things are big, bad and scary, but hospitalisations are now very much on the rise, we know they are a lagging indicator and there's a lot of case growth from the last week or two that still has to translate into hospital visits.

A good graph is worth a thousand words anyway...

[tweet]1409590572583555081[/tweet]

 

[LamieRobertson]

They clearly are, just not at anything like the same rate..................the question is going to be one of 'what is an acceptable level of hospitalisations we can live with ?' and how that translates into % of cases. The vacc programme will hopefully prevent that even being an issue as the entire adult population gets their two doses

…and that is the big question….as has been said many many times before it’s not going away ..at some stage sensible messaging from the government…support in various ways for those who become ill and maybe at some stage we can move on

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

But you have just highlighted that extra cases absolutely ARE translating into extra patients in hospital since 1,500 is more than 900.

The good news is that the conversation ratio of cases -> hospitalisation has lessened considerably, which is probably what you were trying to say.

However, with cases rising exponentially, hospitalisations will also rise exponentially, just with a small exponent.

I'm not saying things are big, bad and scary, but hospitalisations are now very much on the rise, we know they are a lagging indicator and there's a lot of case growth from the last week or two that still has to translate into hospital visits.

A good graph is worth a thousand words anyway...

Although hospitalisations are on the rise, albeit at a lot slower rate than previous rises in cases, the number of people who are seriously ill and needing ventilation is staying rather low and not rising at anywhere near the same rate. Evidence is still pointing to the cases largely being in those who haven't had the vaccine yet, as they are younger they aren't getting as seriously ill, hence the slower rise in hospitalisations and the even lower rise on the number need critical care. More evidence that the vaccine is doing its job.

 

[LamieRobertson]

Although hospitalisations are on the rise, albeit at a lot slower rate than previous rises in cases, the number of people who are seriously ill and needing ventilation is staying rather low and not rising at anywhere near the same rate. Evidence is still pointing to the cases largely being in those who haven't had the vaccine yet, as they are younger they aren't getting as seriously ill, hence the slower rise in hospitalisations and the even lower rise on the number need critical care. More evidence that the vaccine is doing its job.

View attachment 138101

I remember reading somewhere that those hospital stays are also becoming shorter?

 

[Wozza]

Marr on catching Covid after being double vaccinated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

This is similar to my experience of catching Covid. (I'm on day four of fever)

Almost every colleague/friend says "Haven't you been jabbed?" *sigh*

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Marr on catching Covid after being double vaccinated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

This is similar to my experience of catching Covid. (I'm on day four of fever)

Almost every colleague/friend says "Haven't you been jabbed?" *sigh*

It’s a shame much isn’t being made of an older at risk man catching it and recovering because of the vaccines.


This is good news.

 

[Solid at the back]

Marr on catching Covid after being double vaccinated
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-57640550

This is similar to my experience of catching Covid. (I'm on day four of fever)

Almost every colleague/friend says "Haven't you been jabbed?" *sigh*

I'm starting to wonder if I had covid last weekend, Ive been double jabbed. But last Saturday I could feel my throat swelling up. Sunday Morning I couldn't get out of bed, had aches, cold/hot shivers and glands had swollen up. By Wednesday I was better. I did many Lat flow tests but all were negative

 

[LamieRobertson]

It’s a shame much isn’t being made of an older at risk man catching it and recovering because of the vaccines.


This is good news.

Yep..older previously with a heart issue if memory serves me correct..back at work quite quickly

 

[dazzer6666]

Telegraph extract……

Covid case numbers are rising, but what is the story behind the figures?

A Telegraph analysis shows that mass testing is giving a skewed picture of the pandemic, with community prevalence now five times lower than when the country had similar case numbers last year.

Britain today recorded 20,479 cases, with the seven-day total increasing by 72pc. Looking at daily data, it might be assumed the country is now in a similar predicament to mid-December, when around 20,000 daily infections were reported.

Yet almost three times the number of tests are now being performed each day. Science Editor Sarah Knapton reports how critics have called for the focus to be shifted to admissions and deaths - because vaccinations have broken the link between infections and healthcare needs.

 

[Wozza]

It’s a shame much isn’t being made of an older at risk man catching it and recovering because of the vaccines.

This is good news.

Yep, that's the (very) good news. In the scheme of things, a bad fever is nothing compared with lung problems and hospitalisation.

The bad news is that this Delta variant is brutal.

People need to know a double jab doesn't protect you 100%. Based on four days of "I thought you'd been jabbed!!!", I don't think that message is out there...

 

[Thunder Bolt]

The Globe Primary school in Lancing has had to close due to positive cases.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/194...academy-lancing-shuts-several-positive-cases/

 

[dazzer6666]

The Globe Primary school in Lancing has had to close due to positive cases.

https://www.theargus.co.uk/news/194...academy-lancing-shuts-several-positive-cases/

The sooner they stop testing and isolating children the better.........

 

[dazzer6666]

DT extract (30/6) :

Britain should stop publishing daily figures on Covid-19 case rates because the virus is now a “long way from being an important cause” of death, a vaccine advisor has said.

Prof Robert Dingwall, a member of the UK Government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation, urged people to stop panicking about the current rising infection levels, which may only be reflecting a “last wave of mild infections” among unvaccinated youths.

“It is well past time to panic about infection rates and to publish them obsessively. Even hospitalisation rates are increasingly misleading as better therapy reduces length of stay. Covid is now a long way from being an important cause of mortality,” the Nervtag scientist tweeted.

He joins a growing number of MPs and leading scientists, including Prof Tim Spector, of King’s College London, warning the daily slew of Covid statistics are terrifying people and they lack any context, such as figures on flu, heart disease and cancer.

Conservative MPs are pressing Downing Street to follow officials in Quebec, Canada, and Singapore by moving to weekly updates or similar, ahead of the July 19 unlocking.

Prof Dingwall added: “A reminder: medicine cannot deliver immortality and it is profoundly damaging to society to imply that it can, if only we try hard enough.”

 

[A1X]

Football linked to 2,000 Scottish Covid cases

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-57667163

Nearly 2,000 Covid cases in Scotland have been linked to people watching Euro 2020 football matches.

Public Health Scotland said two thirds of the 1,991 cases were people who travelled to London for Scotland's game with England on 18 June.

This included 397 fans who were inside Wembley for the match.

 

[Notters]

Telegraph extract……

Covid case numbers are rising, but what is the story behind the figures?

A Telegraph analysis shows that mass testing is giving a skewed picture of the pandemic, with community prevalence now five times lower than when the country had similar case numbers last year.

Britain today recorded 20,479 cases, with the seven-day total increasing by 72pc. Looking at daily data, it might be assumed the country is now in a similar predicament to mid-December, when around 20,000 daily infections were reported.

Yet almost three times the number of tests are now being performed each day. Science Editor Sarah Knapton reports how critics have called for the focus to be shifted to admissions and deaths - because vaccinations have broken the link between infections and healthcare needs.

But if the case rates are actually 3x lower, like for like, than they appear to be based on the previous wave, does that not mean that the vaccinations haven't broken the link between infections and healthcare needs as the above graphs are effectively wrong.

Does anyone have a figure for how many hospitalisations there were in the previous wave when we had 7,000 daily cases (i.e. ~3x fewer than we are being recorded now)?

It appears to me there are two arguments being made that it's 'not that bad' now - but both of these can't be right.

 

[Joey Jo Jo Jr. Shabadoo]

But if the case rates are actually 3x lower, like for like, than they appear to be based on the previous wave, does that not mean that the vaccinations haven't broken the link between infections and healthcare needs as the above graphs are effectively wrong.

Does anyone have a figure for how many hospitalisations there were in the previous wave when we had 7,000 daily cases (i.e. ~3x fewer than we are being recorded now)?

It appears to me there are two arguments being made that it's 'not that bad' now - but both of these can't be right.

I believe a vast majority of the people in hospital are those who aren't fully vaccinated and those that have been fully vaccinated are almost all suffering with co-morbidity.

I posted a graph yesterday that showed that despite the rise in hospitalisations the number needing critical care and ventilation is staying very flat and not increasing at all. This points to the vaccine preventing serious illness and a majority of those that are ill enough to need hospital treatment are younger and better able to fight the virus, hence the death rate and critical care rate not exponentially rising at this time.

We last hit 7,000 daily cases on 25th Feb (7,712) to be exact, at that time around 15,000 people were in hospital, over 2,000 on critical care and the death rate 250+ a day. Cases are currently over 20k, even allowing for lag we are nowhere near those numbers, infact for both hospitalisations and critical care the numbers are almost 90% lower.