Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Mellotron]

[TWEET]1366875025610047489[/TWEET]

 

[crodonilson]

Worrying data from Imperial today that the rate of drops in infection is slowing significantly and in some areas is increasing again, with schools adding to the R rate from Monday this reminds us we are not out of the woods yet and indeed may still need to stall the roadmap out of lockdown if transmissions start to increase again.

 

[Green Cross Code Man]

Worrying data from Imperial today that the rate of drops in infection is slowing significantly and in some areas is increasing again, with schools adding to the R rate from Monday this reminds us we are not out of the woods yet and indeed may still need to stall the roadmap out of lockdown if transmissions start to increase again.

That data only covers the period up until 22 February. The Zoe app and other data also recorded similar results but in the ten days since, the rate of decrease appears to have sped up again.

 

[sparkie]

Worrying data from Imperial today that the rate of drops in infection is slowing significantly and in some areas is increasing again, with schools adding to the R rate from Monday this reminds us we are not out of the woods yet and indeed may still need to stall the roadmap out of lockdown if transmissions start to increase again.

The problem is the growing momentum that this is all over now bar the summer holiday.

Bound to happen.

Lockdown in effect over already for some. The "I'm jabbed and alright, Jack" lot.

 

[Rugrat]

Lockdown in effect over already for some. The "I'm jabbed and alright, Jack" lot.

It's been over for ages for the "I'm not jabbed and alright, Jack" lot

 

[dsr-burnley]

Worrying data from Imperial today that the rate of drops in infection is slowing significantly and in some areas is increasing again, with schools adding to the R rate from Monday this reminds us we are not out of the woods yet and indeed may still need to stall the roadmap out of lockdown if transmissions start to increase again.

No need to worry about this one. The Imperial estimates very closely match the actual data, although obviously the actual data is more precise.

Basically, Imperial say that cases fell very rapidly in January and slowed down a bit in February, up to February 22nd which is the latest data they have.

Whereas the actual data shows that cases fell very rapidly in January before slowing down a bit in mid-February but then falling again very rapidly in the last ten days or so. The seven day average now is 46% lower than on 22nd February.

The Imperial study was very relevant when the actual data was incomplete and patchy, but now the testing regime has ramped up so much we get more accurate and comprehensive guide to trends from the actual data. And the actual data shows that cases are falling fast and the mid-February period was a blip. Imperial's next set of figures, in a fortnight or so, will confirm. No need to worry about out-of-date information when the present information is so much more encouraging.

 

[Napper]

Worrying data from Imperial today that the rate of drops in infection is slowing significantly and in some areas is increasing again, with schools adding to the R rate from Monday this reminds us we are not out of the woods yet and indeed may still need to stall the roadmap out of lockdown if transmissions start to increase again.

look at the figures of everything and how steeply they are literally plummeting. Of course it will slow.

Don't get so scared by the fear.

Cases are ok now the vulnerable ( 98% of deaths ) are vaccinated.

Look back on all your doom forecasts for the last year v reality and re adjust your setting. It will do your mental health a world of good to not be constantly scared and worst case outlook.

We are nearly there and summer is coming

 

[loz]

Case rates in England are continuing to fall among all age groups, Public Health England says.

The highest rate is among 30 to 39-year-olds, at 121.1 cases per 100,000 people in the seven days to 28 February. That's down week-on-week from 178.3 cases.

The rate for 20 to 29-year-olds has dropped from 161.3 to 111.3, and among 40 to 49-year-olds it is down from 148.0 to 102.0 per 100,000.

The rate for those aged 80 or over is now 65.0 cases per 100,000, which has fallen from 101.8 cases the previous week.

 

[crodonilson]

look at the figures of everything and how steeply they are literally plummeting. Of course it will slow.

Don't get so scared by the fear.

Cases are ok now the vulnerable ( 98% of deaths ) are vaccinated.

Look back on all your doom forecasts for the last year v reality and re adjust your setting. It will do your mental health a world of good to not be constantly scared and worst case outlook.

We are nearly there and summer is coming

The last few months decline in infections have been better than most modelling, which is terrific news but the success is due to lockdown. When lockdown begins to ease next week we may see some of the hard yards gained in the last 2 months lost, lets hope it is not the case.

 

[dsr-burnley]

The last few months decline in infections have been better than most modelling, which is terrific news but the success is due to lockdown. When lockdown begins to ease next week we may see some of the hard yards gained in the last 2 months lost, lets hope it is not the case.

I think the vaccine may have contributed too. Most sources reckon it has.

The natural progression of the waves of the virus may have contributed as well, but analysis of factors like that is a bit lacking. It's certain that a disease that progresses in waves will have a natural down as well as a natural up, but we don't know whether or how much the current fall is down to a natural downturn in the wave.

 

[loz]

The last few months decline in infections have been better than most modelling, which is terrific news but the success is due to lockdown. When lockdown begins to ease next week we may see some of the hard yards gained in the last 2 months lost, lets hope it is not the case.

Or we cut down on the pork pies ?

From The Guardian:

The majority of global Covid-19 deaths have been in countries where many people are obese, with coronavirus fatality rates 10 times higher in nations where at least 50% of adults are overweight, a global study has found.

The report, which described a “dramatic” correlation between countries’ Covid-19 death and obesity rates, found that 90% or 2.2 million of the 2.5 million deaths from the pandemic disease so far were in countries with high levels of obesity.

The study analysed the death figures from Johns Hopkins University in the US and the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory data on obesity.

Strikingly, the authors said, there was no example of a country where people are generally not overweight or obese having high Covid-19 death rates.

“Look at countries like Japan and South Korea, where they have very low levels of Covid-19 deaths as well as very low levels of adult obesity,” said Tim Lobstein, an expert advisor to the World Obesity Federation and visiting professor at Australia’s Sydney University who co-led the report.

“They have prioritised public health across a range of measures, including population weight, and it has paid off in the pandemic.”

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Or we cut down on the pork pies ?

From The Guardian:

The majority of global Covid-19 deaths have been in countries where many people are obese, with coronavirus fatality rates 10 times higher in nations where at least 50% of adults are overweight, a global study has found.

The report, which described a “dramatic” correlation between countries’ Covid-19 death and obesity rates, found that 90% or 2.2 million of the 2.5 million deaths from the pandemic disease so far were in countries with high levels of obesity.

The study analysed the death figures from Johns Hopkins University in the US and the World Health Organization’s Global Health Observatory data on obesity.

Strikingly, the authors said, there was no example of a country where people are generally not overweight or obese having high Covid-19 death rates.

“Look at countries like Japan and South Korea, where they have very low levels of Covid-19 deaths as well as very low levels of adult obesity,” said Tim Lobstein, an expert advisor to the World Obesity Federation and visiting professor at Australia’s Sydney University who co-led the report.

“They have prioritised public health across a range of measures, including population weight, and it has paid off in the pandemic.”

The whole shutting of gyms completely whilst telling people to get healthier is lols

 

[dazzer6666]

The last few months decline in infections have been better than most modelling, which is terrific news but the success is due to lockdown. When lockdown begins to ease next week we may see some of the hard yards gained in the last 2 months lost, lets hope it is not the case.

Not entirely. Lockdown initially (needed to slow spread until vacc programme was in place), then supported by vaccinations, now being overtaken by vaccinations...................and that will continue. Every key metric is currently declining sharply week-on-week, with the sharpest declines now being seen in hospitalisations and deaths, and amongst the old/vaccinated, even more sharply. The number of people in hospital is also declining - twice as many leaving as being admitted in the last couple of days.

Infection numbers seemed to plateau for a few days but are now dropping again. I suspect we'll see further plateaux, or even increases (bear in mind testing is still increasing too) as schools return and other lockdown easing measures are implemented, but as long as the admission and death rates keep falling (which they should as more and more get vaccinated) we're on our way out of this. I think the current lockdown easing plan still looks sensibly cautious, with enough time to understand the impact of each stage on the numbers. This is't losing the hard yards gained, it's calculated risk management - we can't and shouldn't go for zero covid.

 

[crodonilson]

Variant of serious concern

Scientists have identified 16 cases of a new coronavirus variant in the UK, Public Health England (PHE) has announced. Prompting calls for an extension and tightening of lockdown.

Cases of the variant, referred to as VUI-202102/04, were first identified on 15 February through genomic horizon scanning. PHE said on Thursday that all individuals who tested positive and their contacts have been traced and advised to isolate. The variant, which is understood to have originated in the UK, was designated a “variant under investigation” (VUI) on 24 February.

Variants of Covid-19 can be identified as VUIs or “variants of concern” (VOCs). New variants emerge regularly and experts are conducting frequent analysis to see which are of concern, and which are not.

The latest identified variant, also known as B.1.1.318, contains the E484K mutation, which is found in two other VUIs present in the UK, but it does not feature the N501Y mutation that is present in all VOCs, PHE said. This makes it particularly concerning and means it is highly likely to evade the current vaccines available.

The findings mean there are now four VUIs and four VOCs being tracked by scientists in the UK. Other VUIs include one from Brazil, known as P2, which has had 43 probable or confirmed cases identified in the UK, but is not causing scientists serious concern. PHE said that, as of Wednesday, a total of 26 cases of P2 had been found in England where no travel links could be established.

Two further VUIs – dubbed A.23.1 with E484K and B.1.525 – have seen 78 and 86 probable or confirmed UK cases detected respectively. Both were first detected in the UK in December.

Additional testing is currently being made available for targeted areas of England to suppress the spread of VOCs. This includes surge testing in South Gloucestershire after cases of the Manaus variant of coronavirus were discovered.

This variant of concern – known as P1 – was detected in Brazil and in travellers from Brazil to Japan, and was associated with a surge of cases in Manaus late last year. Six cases of this variant of concern have been found in the UK – three in Scotland and three in England.

On Tuesday, the hunt for a missing person infected with the Manaus variant of coronavirus had been narrowed down to 379 households in the south east of England, the health secretary Matt Hancock said.

 

[dsr-burnley]

Scientists have identified 16 cases of a new coronavirus variant in the UK, Public Health England (PHE) has announced. Prompting calls for an extension and tightening of lockdown.

Cases of the variant, referred to as VUI-202102/04, were first identified on 15 February through genomic horizon scanning. PHE said on Thursday that all individuals who tested positive and their contacts have been traced and advised to isolate. The variant, which is understood to have originated in the UK, was designated a “variant under investigation” (VUI) on 24 February.

Variants of Covid-19 can be identified as VUIs or “variants of concern” (VOCs). New variants emerge regularly and experts are conducting frequent analysis to see which are of concern, and which are not.

The latest identified variant, also known as B.1.1.318, contains the E484K mutation, which is found in two other VUIs present in the UK, but it does not feature the N501Y mutation that is present in all VOCs, PHE said. This makes it particularly concerning and means it is highly likely to evade the current vaccines available.

I don't know whether the bits I have bolded are an invention by yourself or an invention by someone else, but they are pure invention and are nonsense. If you have added them yourself, then stop it. Frightening people for no reason is a bad thing to do. And if they are what you have read, then someone else is trying to frighten you - stop reading dodgy sources. Read the Reuters report, or Evening Standard report, or Scotsman report, or any of many other reliable reports that do not include the made-up bits.

You would also do well to quote your sources.

The blindingly obvious nonsense is that this variant has fewer mutations than others. Therefore this is not an indication that it is more likely to evade the vaccines. You should be able to tell that this is nonsense. Do not allow yourself to be frightened by lies; read this sort of stuff, especially when it is from an obviously dubious source, with a sceptical mind. Remember the famous quote - you can't believe everything that is written on the internet. (Abraham Lincoln.)

 

[wehatepalace]

Scientists have identified 16 cases of a new coronavirus variant in the UK, Public Health England (PHE) has announced. Prompting calls for an extension and tightening of lockdown.

Cases of the variant, referred to as VUI-202102/04, were first identified on 15 February through genomic horizon scanning. PHE said on Thursday that all individuals who tested positive and their contacts have been traced and advised to isolate. The variant, which is understood to have originated in the UK, was designated a “variant under investigation” (VUI) on 24 February.

Variants of Covid-19 can be identified as VUIs or “variants of concern” (VOCs). New variants emerge regularly and experts are conducting frequent analysis to see which are of concern, and which are not.

The latest identified variant, also known as B.1.1.318, contains the E484K mutation, which is found in two other VUIs present in the UK, but it does not feature the N501Y mutation that is present in all VOCs, PHE said. This makes it particularly concerning and means it is highly likely to evade the current vaccines available.

The findings mean there are now four VUIs and four VOCs being tracked by scientists in the UK. Other VUIs include one from Brazil, known as P2, which has had 43 probable or confirmed cases identified in the UK, but is not causing scientists serious concern. PHE said that, as of Wednesday, a total of 26 cases of P2 had been found in England where no travel links could be established.

Two further VUIs – dubbed A.23.1 with E484K and B.1.525 – have seen 78 and 86 probable or confirmed UK cases detected respectively. Both were first detected in the UK in December.

Additional testing is currently being made available for targeted areas of England to suppress the spread of VOCs. This includes surge testing in South Gloucestershire after cases of the Manaus variant of coronavirus were discovered.

This variant of concern – known as P1 – was detected in Brazil and in travellers from Brazil to Japan, and was associated with a surge of cases in Manaus late last year. Six cases of this variant of concern have been found in the UK – three in Scotland and three in England.

On Tuesday, the hunt for a missing person infected with the Manaus variant of coronavirus had been narrowed down to 379 households in the south east of England, the health secretary Matt Hancock said.

I can’t work out if you’re genuinely terrified, loving the drama of lockdown and the ever evolving tale of COVID-19 or whether you’re just trolling, but whatever your reasons you should be ashamed of the underlying tone of your posts, quite frankly you’re no better than the gutter press that are consistently spreading a message of fear, especially now when there is certainly an air of optimism and hope.

Thankfully your doom mongering is tucked away on this thread in a sub forum where people are less likely to read it.

Honestly Crodo, it’s disappointing, until recently for many years your posts have been ones that bring a smile to my face, but in my opinion you’re letting yourself down badly.

If your fear is genuine, then please stop reading the press and watching the news, your mental health will improve dramatically, and if you are struggling then many of us are only a pm away, I’m a key worker and have worked all the way through this right from day one, and I promise you life isn’t nearly as scary as the press make out !

 

[dazzer6666]

I can’t work out if you’re genuinely terrified, loving the drama of lockdown and the ever evolving tale of COVID-19 or whether you’re just trolling, but whatever your reasons you should be ashamed of the underlying tone of your posts, quite frankly you’re no better than the gutter press that are consistently spreading a message of fear, especially now when there is certainly an air of optimism and hope.

Thankfully your doom mongering is tucked away on this thread in a sub forum where people are less likely to read it.

Honestly Crodo, it’s disappointing, until recently for many years your posts have been ones that bring a smile to my face, but in my opinion you’re letting yourself down badly.

If your fear is genuine, then please stop reading the press and watching the news, your mental health will improve dramatically, and if you are struggling then many of us are only a pm away, I’m a key worker and have worked all the way through this right from day one, and I promise you life isn’t nearly as scary as the press make out !

Good post, needed saying.

 

[crodonilson]

I can’t work out if you’re genuinely terrified, loving the drama of lockdown and the ever evolving tale of COVID-19 or whether you’re just trolling, but whatever your reasons you should be ashamed of the underlying tone of your posts, quite frankly you’re no better than the gutter press that are consistently spreading a message of fear, especially now when there is certainly an air of optimism and hope.

Thankfully your doom mongering is tucked away on this thread in a sub forum where people are less likely to read it.

Honestly Crodo, it’s disappointing, until recently for many years your posts have been ones that bring a smile to my face, but in my opinion you’re letting yourself down badly.

If your fear is genuine, then please stop reading the press and watching the news, your mental health will improve dramatically, and if you are struggling then many of us are only a pm away, I’m a key worker and have worked all the way through this right from day one, and I promise you life isn’t nearly as scary as the press make out !

I dont know how anyone could be loving the drama of 150,000 deaths and massive curbs on what we used to call normal life. I take no joy in any of this, I wish Covid never happened but it has and we need to be very careful about the future, the thought that we get to 21st June and then everything goes back to pre March 2020 March normal and we all live happily ever after is pure folly I'm afraid.

The arrival of Covid vaccines should not tempt countries to relax efforts to fight the pandemic, top World Health Organization officials said on Friday, citing particular concern about the situation in Brazil.

“We think we’re through this. We’re not,” Mike Ryan, WHO’s top emergency expert, told an online briefing, according to Reuters. “Countries are going to lurch into third and fourth surges if we’re not careful.”

Record Covid deaths have been reported in Brazil this week and its hospital system is on the brink of collapse, driven partly by a more contagious variant first identified there.

On a global level, Covid case numbers reversed a six-week downwards trend last week despite the delivery of millions of doses of vaccines in recent weeks, WHO data showed.

“Now is not the time for Brazil or anywhere else for that matter to be relaxing,” Ryan added. “The arrival of vaccines is a moment of great hope but it is also potentially a moment where we lose concentration.

 

[RossyG]

I can’t work out if you’re genuinely terrified, loving the drama of lockdown and the ever evolving tale of COVID-19 or whether you’re just trolling

My money’s on the third of those options.

 

[wehatepalace]

My money’s on the third of those options.

After reading his reply I agree with you, absolutely pathetic.
In all my years on this board I’ve never put anyone on ignore, until now !