Green Cross Code Man
Wunt be druv
They would need a stat that is consistently measurable. Hospital admissions would be good for that, although that would admittedly miss out care homes. But R is often referred to in different settings.
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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread
- Thread starter GingerBeerMan
- Start date
https://twitter.com/devisridhar/status/1266423527739215874?s=21
Our experts have not come out of this very well if the above is
True
Our experts have not come out of this very well if the above is
True
beorhthelm
A. Virgo, Football Genius
- Jul 21, 2003
- 36,015
the wisdom of hindsight.
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,399
I find it quite intriguing that Swedish cases are still as high as peak, deaths are fairly up and down but still quite high yet apparently their ICU usage is coming down 
Virus becoming less serious deadly naturally? Not really sure but I must say I think Sweden’s tactic would have been absolutely catastrophic in the U.K.
ICU
Virus becoming less serious deadly naturally? Not really sure but I must say I think Sweden’s tactic would have been absolutely catastrophic in the U.K.ICUoldboyroy
Well-known member
Deaths in Sweden today would of been 3 weeks ago or more when tested if its roughly the same as here in UK.
clapham_gull
Legacy Fan
- Aug 20, 2003
- 25,876
Nah.
If they made the decisions (and reasoning) at public at the time other scientists would have challenged it, rightly or wrongly.
No hindsight, that's why the independent SAGE committee was set up WELL BEFORE the publishing of these papers.
Weststander
Well-known member
I find it quite intriguing that Swedish cases are still as high as peak, deaths are fairly up and down but still quite high yet apparently their ICU usage is coming down
View attachment 124296View attachment 124297ICUView attachment 124298
Their consistent strategy of putting the economy/liberties and possibly a full blown attempt at herd immunity would’ve been politically unacceptable in almost any other nation. Our resident Swede recently said:
“I still like our strategy. It sounds dirty, immoral and raw but if people die at 85 instead of 86, its sad but not worth stopping society for”.
Perhaps theIr national psyche is dispassionately rational on this?
40,000 excess deaths according to a former government Chief Scientific Adviser.
Remember, Mr Johnson was vehemently anti-lockdown. The initial scientific advice was based on the Government strategy of not locking down as Mr Johnson alluded to in his famous Greenwich speech talking about one Government in the World taking a different direction.
https://www.channel4.com/news/40000...ent-had-acted-responsibly-prof-sir-david-king
The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,399
People per km2 & deaths per million
Netherlands - 409 per km2 - 342 DPM
Belgium - 380 per km2 - 821 DPM
UK - 279 per km2 - 569 DPM
Italy - 201 per km2 - 548 DPM
Spain - 92 per km2 - 580 DPM
France - 118 per km2 - 427 DPM
When you consider how densely populated the U.K. is in comparison to many countries we compare against, have we really fared that badly compared to the rest of Europe?
Netherlands - 409 per km2 - 342 DPM
Belgium - 380 per km2 - 821 DPM
UK - 279 per km2 - 569 DPM
Italy - 201 per km2 - 548 DPM
Spain - 92 per km2 - 580 DPM
France - 118 per km2 - 427 DPM
When you consider how densely populated the U.K. is in comparison to many countries we compare against, have we really fared that badly compared to the rest of Europe?
Great line...
Andrew Griffith, a former chief business adviser to Mr Johnson and now MP for Arundel and South Downs, said: ‘A blanket quarantine hangs the Closed sign on Britain just as competitor nations lift their travel restrictions.
‘It is unscientific to apply it to countries with a lower rate of infection than our own – if a plane full of passengers from Iceland lands in the UK it would actually lower the average infection rate – and it is devastating for the wider economy.
Andrew Griffith, a former chief business adviser to Mr Johnson and now MP for Arundel and South Downs, said: ‘A blanket quarantine hangs the Closed sign on Britain just as competitor nations lift their travel restrictions.
‘It is unscientific to apply it to countries with a lower rate of infection than our own – if a plane full of passengers from Iceland lands in the UK it would actually lower the average infection rate – and it is devastating for the wider economy.
Yes. We’ve fared amongst the worse in Europe and the world.
Firstly, you’ve selected the 6 worse hit Countries in Europe. 38 other European Countries have handled it better than these 6.
Secondly, you’re implying that density of population is strongly related to death-rates of Coronavirus. Here are some countries that have huge population density but very low death rates.
Singapore - 7,894 per km2 - 4 DPM
Hong Kong - 6,781 per km2 - 0.5 DPM
Taiwan - 652 per km2 - 0.3 DPM
South Korea - 516 per Km2 - 5 DPM
You see, the defining variable on a Country’s ability to deal with this pandemic is the quality of government. Whilst the Germans hadn’t had first hand experience of a pandemic, they quickly looked to emulate and copy the techniques of the world class expertise on viral pandemics from South East Asia, Mr Johnson and his handler Mr Cummings knew better than that though. They listened to this c*** instead!
https://youtu.be/ZcmHsxz6y00
Yes. Very badly indeed. Compared to Europe and the world. Terribly in fact. Because our government are inept and self serving. Sooner or later people are just going to have to come to terms with that fact. Scary as it may seem.
Bold Seagull
strong and stable with me, or...
I thought it was a calculation based on new tested cases over a week vs number of new tested cases the following week. If the following week is higher the R will be above 1, if lower it will be below 1. I was under the impression it was as simple as dividing the latest week figure by the previous week? Or something fairly similar.
- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,767
I'm afraid that using what I believe most people agree are the most accurate, least 'interpret-able' figures to compare across countries (Total Excess deaths), and that most countries in Europe seem to be over their peak, then yes we have.
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The Wizard
Well-known member
- Jul 2, 2009
- 18,399
I didn’t compare European countries to Asian countries because they are light years ahead of us hygienically and in readiness for this kind of outbreak, they have a totally different lifestyle.
Excess deaths is a hard way to measure the actual virus deaths though, my point about excess deaths is, many of these excess deaths could be people waiting for transplants, cancer patients, medical emergencies like heart attacks or strokes that due to the fear of calling or going to hospital I can only imagine have gone up exponentially, I wonder if we will ever get a true breakdown of this and whether other countries across Europe had similar levels of shutdown across almost all over medical treatments, this is why the constant ‘we are the worst in Europe’ narrative gets me because at this stage nobody knows that and nobody will know that for sure until is all is said and done.
Moving on from that, Brazil had nearly 30000 cases yesterday, it’s absolutely spiralling out of control there they have a ‘perfect’ storm of incompetent government who couldn’t care less, poor general healthcare, hugely densely populated cities and lots of vulnerable and poor people, could be horrendous there.
Excess deaths is a hard way to measure the actual virus deaths though, my point about excess deaths is, many of these excess deaths could be people waiting for transplants, cancer patients, medical emergencies like heart attacks or strokes that due to the fear of calling or going to hospital I can only imagine have gone up exponentially, I wonder if we will ever get a true breakdown of this and whether other countries across Europe had similar levels of shutdown across almost all over medical treatments, this is why the constant ‘we are the worst in Europe’ narrative gets me because at this stage nobody knows that and nobody will know that for sure until is all is said and done.
Moving on from that, Brazil had nearly 30000 cases yesterday, it’s absolutely spiralling out of control there they have a ‘perfect’ storm of incompetent government who couldn’t care less, poor general healthcare, hugely densely populated cities and lots of vulnerable and poor people, could be horrendous there.
- Jul 10, 2003
- 27,767
I don't think we will ever have comparable figures as each country will and has defined how they count 'Covid' fatalities (and changed how they count them during the pandemic !), hence I think Total Excess Deaths is the only truly comparable figure.
I agree with you completely about Brazil and South America generally. Very concerning figures there.
I agree with you completely about Brazil and South America generally. Very concerning figures there.
I'm not so sure .... the major variable there could well be the number of tests vs the number of cases. I really don't know but given it's something widely referred to you would think there would be some explanation. Here is the Beeb's helpful (sic) effort under a heading 'How is the R number calculated'
Using data - such as the number of people dying, admitted to hospital or testing positive for the virus - allows you to estimate how easily the virus is spreading. Generally this gives a picture of what the R number was two to three weeks ago. Regular testing of households should soon give a more timely estimate.
We all know it needs to be under 1 ... that's about the extent of my understanding
Jimmy Grimble
Well-known member
Given that other countries had more severe lockdowns than us, I think it’s safe to assume they would have been in very similar positions.
Excess deaths isn’t perfect and nothing will be. However, it is widely recognised as being the best and most fair way to make comparisons for very obvious reasons. As such, I see no issue with people saying we have had one of the worst responses in Europe. Especially given we had weeks of a head start on other countries.
Anyone who can’t see that comes across as a bit of an apologist for the shambles this government has been unfortunately. And that’s not being negative, it’s just being realist.
The other major advantage was that we’re an Island with no land borders (except Rep Ire). Controlling access to our Country would have been relatively easy compared to others.
It must have been hugely problematic to close down land borders in Countries like France, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany & Austria.
Many many people voted Brexit to take back control of the borders. As a screaming & ranting Nigel Farage demanded borders be closed (very early on in the pandemic) to shut the Coronavirus out, the Government ignored his life saving pleas and let the virus take seed throughout the land as they pursued their initial herd immunity or ‘take it on the chin’ plan.
If we get a second spike, the Prime Minister must resign instead of waiting for the result of the public enquiry which will have the same effect.
JC Footy Genius
Bringer of TRUTH
- Jun 9, 2015
- 10,568
You seem to be suggesting all those distinguished Scientists/experts on SAGE were telling the government what they wanted to hear to fit a supposed government no lockdown agenda rather than giving their impartial consensus analysis of the best way to deal with the Pandemic. Where is the evidence to back up this view?