Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bob'n'weave]

After everyone went on about an exit plan I can just see it now, everyone refusing to download the app because they think it’s going to be hacked by spies or something

Hacking, data and security are indeed top of the list of fears about the App.

......and this just in from the Daily Fail.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...tml?ito=push-notification&ci=14388&si=7535945

 

[Machiavelli]

I thought I'd explained it pretty well? She said they can't ease lockdown until R0 reduces further. The only way it will reduce further is by increasing the strictness of lockdown. Are they proposing to do that? No.

Why not also by extending the length of the lockdown?

 

[oldboyroy]

The hope depends on the target for new infections which the government want to be below 1000 irrespective of how many tests they do a day. We are still way short of that and the way it's falling would suggest it's weeks away. However I think providing workplaces can ensure social distancing then everyone could be back to work possibly next week. If social distancing cannot be done then I think mask wearing will be compulsory in those settings. In public travel again masks will be compulsory.

 

[The Wizard]

I must say I’m not a social justice warrior type, but on my daily exercise I’m seeing more and more groups of people - particularly it seems women meeting up with their kids, I saw a group of 3 women today sitting 6ft apart chatting whilst letting their kids play chase and football I know it’s natural over time compliance will reduce but I think it the government is want R to reduce even further than it already has drastic measures will be needed as more and more simply are not listening anymore

 

[jabba]

Why not also by extending the length of the lockdown?

I think because we know now that our restrictions (having been in place for a few weeks) keep new infections to a certain level.
As has been noted many times, we were not as restricted as people in (eg) Spain or Italy.
Maybe a stricter lockdown would have brought the numbers down faster, but whatever relaxations are made, we will not see the result of them for some time.

 

[Notters]

Why not also by extending the length of the lockdown?

Because R0 is a measure of infectiousness. The factors being the nature of the virus and the way people behave. If the lockdown is extended then R0 stays the same. Unless I misunderstand.

 

[Weststander]

The interconnectivity of global movement means this can be around the globe almost before we realise it, anyone else remember reading The Gaia Hypothesis ?

Posted by you on 22 Jan! In hindsight, so very true.

 

[Yoda]

Because R0 is a measure of infectiousness. The factors being the nature of the virus and the way people behave. If the lockdown is extended then R0 stays the same. Unless I misunderstand.

In theory it could reduce further as instead of one person infecting 0.7 people per day, it could be lowered to say, 0.6. Once the final few have the virus (hopefully) recovered, no more virus to spread in this Country. If we went down this route, it would need four to 5 weeks get to no new cases (in theory).

 

[colonies man]

there's been much talked about positive move to work from home, but its been short period. do we know most have been able to, and is it productive? would it be on an ongoing basis? i wouldnt expect a many smaller businesses to have been able to change.

Here in Oz the polls have risen showing as many as 80% of those working from home can’t wait to return to their workplace.Lack of social intercourse(cue silly jokes) given as the reason,companies also report productivity way down (to much Netflix?)

 

[clapham_gull]

Interesting conformation from France that the disease was actually there last year in a man in his 50s who survived. They have re-tested his samples and he had the virus on the 27th December. He hadn't visited any any infected areas.

I got ill before Christmas, then twice again after Christmas, which I thought was a flu virus that wouldn't go away. This wasn't a cold and I've never had it "3 times" in a month.

Ironically went to The Basque Country in January to try and get over it at the time it was probably spreading over there.

I can't really remember the specific symptoms, but my chest was still hurting up to a few weeks before the virus struck over here. I even had blood tests at the Doctors, never went back because then all hell broke lose.

 

[The Wizard]

It’s quite odd reading about other countries easing their lockdowns and realising them ‘easing’ their lockdowns is basically what we have now. Not a critique as I’m very happy the U.K. government have allowed exercise and some access to the outdoors but makes you realise just how hard they have had it.

 

[darkwolf666]

It’s quite odd reading about other countries easing their lockdowns and realising them ‘easing’ their lockdowns is basically what we have now. Not a critique as I’m very happy the U.K. government have allowed exercise and some access to the outdoors but makes you realise just how hard they have had it.

As have the 1.5 million who are shielding in this country, please don’t forget them!

 

[beorhthelm]

Because R0 is a measure of infectiousness. The factors being the nature of the virus and the way people behave. If the lockdown is extended then R0 stays the same. Unless I misunderstand.

under lockdown the R should lower slowly over time. with more lockdown the R will lower more rapidly, as there are fewer possible contacts.

It’s quite odd reading about other countries easing their lockdowns and realising them ‘easing’ their lockdowns is basically what we have now. Not a critique as I’m very happy the U.K. government have allowed exercise and some access to the outdoors but makes you realise just how hard they have had it.

so bearing the previous in mind, if we wanted a "better result" we would have had to have a stricter lockdown. im not sure what that would be or if we would have accepted it. in the past now.

 

[Garry Nelson's teacher]

Interesting conformation from France that the disease was actually there last year in a man in his 50s who survived. They have re-tested his samples and he had the virus on the 27th December. He hadn't visited any any infected areas.

I got ill before Christmas, then twice again after Christmas, which I thought was a flu virus that wouldn't go away. This wasn't a cold and I've never had it "3 times" in a month.

Ironically went to The Basque Country in January to try and get over it at the time it was probably spreading over there.

I can't really remember the specific symptoms, but my chest was still hurting up to a few weeks before the virus struck over here. I even had blood tests at the Doctors, never went back because then all hell broke lose.

This does rather blow a hole in the anti-Chinese conspiracy theories coming from The Donald and his camp? But where the heck did this thing come form?

 

[Notters]

under lockdown the R should lower slowly over time. with more lockdown the R will lower more rapidly, as there are fewer possible contacts. so bearing the previous in mind, if we wanted a "better result" we would have had to have a stricter lockdown.

I don't see how R would lower slowly - except as a result of herd immunity - but I don't think that's taken into account - can you explain? If you are talking about immunity it really depends on how many have already had the virus, which we don't know.

so bearing the previous in mind, if we wanted a "better result" we would have had to have a stricter lockdown.

Exactly - tighter restrictions = lower R0.

I got ill before Christmas, then twice again after Christmas, which I thought was a flu virus that wouldn't go away. This wasn't a cold and I've never had it "3 times" in a month.

I get that sort of thing every year, perhaps you just have a good immune system?

 

[vegster]

Posted by you on 22 Jan! In hindsight, so very true.

It is something I wish I had never been correct about. How the world has changed since then is shocking.

 

[Machiavelli]

Because R0 is a measure of infectiousness. The factors being the nature of the virus and the way people behave. If the lockdown is extended then R0 stays the same. Unless I misunderstand.

I think you have misunderstood (although I might have done), and [MENTION=1933]Yoda[/MENTION] has provided the response. My misunderstanding might be that I haven't appreciated fully what R0 is, whereas I think I have grasped the R-rate.
From what I can gather in the UK, the R-rate is currently (or according to the most recent estimate) between 0.6 and 0.9. At one point it was about 3. It's been reduced by having the lockdown. Extending the lockdown will reduce it further. That's the logic I'm working on.

 

[Machiavelli]

I don't see how R would lower slowly - except as a result of herd immunity - but I don't think that's taken into account - can you explain? If you are talking about immunity it really depends on how many have already had the virus, which we don't know.




Exactly - tighter restrictions = lower R0.



I get that sort of thing every year, perhaps you just have a good immune system?

One thing I'd advise to ditch is herd immunity.
Herd immunity will only arise as a result of either:
-- a vaccine, which would be good
-- over 60% of the population contracting CV, which would not be good
Until the first option emerges (provided it is widely available), we're trying to ward off the second

 

[e77]

Interesting conformation from France that the disease was actually there last year in a man in his 50s who survived. They have re-tested his samples and he had the virus on the 27th December. He hadn't visited any any infected areas.

I got ill before Christmas, then twice again after Christmas, which I thought was a flu virus that wouldn't go away. This wasn't a cold and I've never had it "3 times" in a month.

Ironically went to The Basque Country in January to try and get over it at the time it was probably spreading over there.

I can't really remember the specific symptoms, but my chest was still hurting up to a few weeks before the virus struck over here. I even had blood tests at the Doctors, never went back because then all hell broke lose.

I was working in London earlier in the year and had a sore throat and temperature without runny nose or headache followed by a brief but quite virulent stomach upset around about the time CV was first getting mentioned in the UK. I remember at the time saying it was an unusual illness to have.

 

[WATFORD zero]

How does that work?

If you look up the rules governing political advisors. I quoted them in an earlier post where I explained the difference between a government official and a political appointee but am on a phone and somewhat limited!

I'm sure he just went along out of innocent Interest, like any of us would, with no ulterior motive

Sorry for my short answer yesterday. In full, these are some of the rules governing what SPADS are/aren't allowed to do.

https://www.civilservant.org.uk/spads-homepage.html

The specific one being 'nor may officials’ advice be transmitted to Ministers via Special Advisers'

This is obviously to ensure that any scientific or expert committee presents expert independent advice to the Government directly with no outside influence, rather than the advice being presented by a Political Spin Doctor who may well have other, conflicting interests. This seems to me, particularly when trying to deal with a Pandemic, eminently sensible.

The reason information is not freely passed between Government bodies and Political bodies, is to avoid potential problems with corruption, undue influence, cronyism, security clearance, etc etc with no segregation of the two bodies. Imagine, for instance, if the second political advisor, in the SAGE meeting was the Chief Exec of an AI company that had just been awarded £1M worth of Government contracts. How would that look


Which brings me back to the question, given neither were scientists and couldn't contribute, and as a political advisor, he is not allowed to feed information back from the meeting to the PM or Ministers, why do you think he was the first political advisor to attend SAGE meetings in it's entire history ?