Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Mellotron]

Seems unlikely, more probably false-negatives, the antibody tests are very new of course. But if someone genuinely doesn't have antibodies, they won't be immune to the virus, so those people shouldn't be accounted for in the 'herd immunity' statistics anyway.

We also don't know that much about how these studies got their sample - if they were from blood donors, for example, that tends to be a self-selecting healthy group of the population.

Not quite as I understand it - suggestion some people using T-Killer cells or another of various means to kill off the infection, without the need for antibodies. The chap on here - sorry I’ve forgotten the name - who has a degree in Biology seemed to think that immunity via T-Killer cells would still exist.

Also the Rutherford survey - and the first Stockholm one - suggested the numbers were too high of this type to be all (or even mostly) false negatives. And if so, the South Korean tests are utter shit, which looks unlikely given how they are doing.

Still so much to learn about this virus.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Not sure about your locality, but increasing numbers of takeaways are opening. Small mercies.

Yeah.

I think Crawley had a round of applause for KFC opening lol

 

[Bodian]

234 pages, and I've only just noticed that there is a spelling mistake in the thread! Just goes to show how our minds read what they want to read / think is there!

 

[Weststander]

Yeah.

I think Crawley had a round of applause for KFC opening lol

Non-chains round our way too eg a nice coffee and cakes takeaway.

 

[beorhthelm]

Maybe stuff like take away restaurants opening and social distancing in cinemas

Whilst people slowly lose businesses and jobs

I don’t think Chris Witty was meant to say what he said.

even if he did mean it, he'll be overruled by politics some time. takeaway should be able to open soon, restaurants and pubs with reduced capacity and etiquette for the bar (maybe table service only?). night clubs and late licenses are the sort of thing will be continued on for a long time. id be far more concerned about public transport than the leisure, cant see maintaining social distancing there once people are allowed or expected to return to work. if you can sit on a packed bus or train you can sit in a pub.

and having seen it again earlier, i cant help recall that Imperial model says we need to relax social distancing, to have infection bumble through spring and summer, or we get another peak in autumn/winter.

 

[Mellotron]

Thoughts following Whitty’s statement

Our current lockdown seems designed to try and get R down to around 0.5-0.7.

We will then look to very gradually push it up to around 0.8-0.9, measuring as we go.

Then until a vaccine comes along/antivirals are proven to severely lessen the virus’ lethality, we may be living in a world of something like a fluctuation between 0.8-1.2, with the idea being that as herd immunity grows (if it does), we can relax slightly more to achieve the same R value, because the virus will find it hard to infect at the same rate months down the road.

That all make sense?

 

[Weststander]

even if he did mean it, he'll be overruled by politics some time. takeaway should be able to open soon, restaurants and pubs with reduced capacity and etiquette for the bar (maybe table service only?). night clubs and late licenses are the sort of thing will be continued on for a long time. id be far more concerned about public transport than the leisure, cant see maintaining social distancing there once people are allowed or expected to return to work. if you can sit on a packed bus or train you can sit in a pub.

Cinemas and stadia will be the last to open. They could well be in 2021, seriously.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Cinemas and stadia will be the last to open. They could well be in 2021, seriously.

I actually agree on cinemas.

No way to really monitor it in the dark.

 

[dazzer6666]

even if he did mean it, he'll be overruled by politics some time. takeaway should be able to open soon, restaurants and pubs with reduced capacity and etiquette for the bar (maybe table service only?). night clubs and late licenses are the sort of thing will be continued on for a long time. id be far more concerned about public transport than the leisure, cant see maintaining social distancing there once people are allowed or expected to return to work. if you can sit on a packed bus or train you can sit in a pub.

and having seen it again earlier, i cant help recall that Imperial model says we need to relax social distancing, to have infection bumble through spring and summer, or we get another peak in autumn/winter.

Yep - for me I'd interpret this as measures 'being needed for quite some time' not necessary meaning anything like 'all current measures' - there will be at least some gradual relaxation, probably quite soon. People going back to work, shops opening, parks and beaches open etc but with people asked to continue to respect distancing. Problem areas will be things like public transport. What it means for football goodness knows - position to be reviewed in September when the season might start I suspect.

 

[Mellotron]

Yep - for me I'd interpret this as measures 'being needed for quite some time' not necessary meaning anything like 'all current measures' - there will be at least some gradual relaxation, probably quite soon. People going back to work, shops opening, parks and beaches open etc but with people asked to continue to respect distancing. Problem areas will be things like public transport. What it means for football goodness knows - position to be reviewed in September when the season might start I suspect.

I agree. I think some are taking it more doom and gloom than intended. I don’t think Whitty said anything today that a lot of us didn’t suspect already.

 

[The Wizard]

Where do we reach the point where it’s more detrimental to social distance and live in fear of the virus than it is to somehow try to get some kind of normality?

I’m very concerned about some things I’m reading, for example cancer referrals are 75% down on a normal month so far this month, this is MASSIVELY concerning about the long term impact of what is happening here, sure you can tell people they need to go to the doctors if they find something unusual but people are clearly not doing that and in addition to this people with serious emergency health emergencies (chest pains etc) are not phoning emergency lines for fear of wasting people’s time and fear of catching the virus, there is so many horrendous things that are happening right now with the virus and so many reports of what is to come after this virus that normality seems even further away now than it did 4 weeks ago.

I don’t know the answer to my first question but I am starting to feel the economic, social and long term health ramifications of this virus could actually cause more deaths than this virus.

 

[Weststander]

Yep - for me I'd interpret this as measures 'being needed for quite some time' not necessary meaning anything like 'all current measures' - there will be at least some gradual relaxation, probably quite soon. People going back to work, shops opening, parks and beaches open etc but with people asked to continue to respect distancing. Problem areas will be things like public transport. What it means for football goodness knows - position to be reviewed in September when the season might start I suspect.

When you take in account many 1,000’s packed in stadia concourses, park’n’ride, then football stadia reopening must be so far off in the distance. Perhaps only when the vast majority of the population have been vaccinated?

 

[Raleigh Chopper]

Not sure about your locality, but increasing numbers of takeaways are opening. Small mercies.

Five Guys and a few others opening up for delivery orders in Plymouth.
Don't think it's for take aways because it would just attract a lot of people into the city centre which is more or less deserted.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

When you take in account many 1,000’s packed in stadia concourses, park’n’ride, then football stadia reopening must be so far off in the distance. Perhaps only when the vast majority of the population have been vaccinated?

So options are:

1. Continue as we are until a vaccine is available. Anywhere from 6 to 18 months depending on what you read.
2. Open up and let Hurd mentality take hold
3. Isolate the vulnerable group (self isolation) and the rest go about a normal life.

Personally I think option 3 is the more likely however I’m not in the vulnerable group nor are family members nor do I have elderly parents so very easy for me to say.

I don’t think option 1 will work as people will not be able to continue as is for month on month.

Option 2 is the quickest way out but would be utter carnage so is a no go.


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[Green Cross Code Man]

Not quite as I understand it - suggestion some people using T-Killer cells or another of various means to kill off the infection, without the need for antibodies. The chap on here - sorry I’ve forgotten the name - who has a degree in Biology seemed to think that immunity via T-Killer cells would still exist.

Also the Rutherford survey - and the first Stockholm one - suggested the numbers were too high of this type to be all (or even mostly) false negatives. And if so, the South Korean tests are utter shit, which looks unlikely given how they are doing.

Still so much to learn about this virus.

I think that's right. In addition, some coronavirus' cause people to produce antibodies that have a very short life, it seems as though covid-19 may unfortunately be one of them.

 

[CheeseRolls]

So options are:

1. Continue as we are until a vaccine is available. Anywhere from 6 to 18 months depending on what you read.
2. Open up and let Hurd mentality take hold
3. Isolate the vulnerable group (self isolation) and the rest go about a normal life.

Personally I think option 3 is the more likely however I’m not in the vulnerable group nor are family members nor do I have elderly parents so very easy for me to say.

I don’t think option 1 will work as people will not be able to continue as is for month on month.

Option 2 is the quickest way out but would be utter carnage so is a no go.


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I like Hurd mentality a lot more than herd immunity and am willing to give it a try.

 

[Is it PotG?]

I like Hurd mentality a lot more than herd immunity and am willing to give it a try.

 

[dazzer6666]

Where do we reach the point where it’s more detrimental to social distance and live in fear of the virus than it is to somehow try to get some kind of normality?

I’m very concerned about some things I’m reading, for example cancer referrals are 75% down on a normal month so far this month, this is MASSIVELY concerning about the long term impact of what is happening here, sure you can tell people they need to go to the doctors if they find something unusual but people are clearly not doing that and in addition to this people with serious emergency health emergencies (chest pains etc) are not phoning emergency lines for fear of wasting people’s time and fear of catching the virus, there is so many horrendous things that are happening right now with the virus and so many reports of what is to come after this virus that normality seems even further away now than it did 4 weeks ago.

I don’t know the answer to my first question but I am starting to feel the economic, social and long term health ramifications of this virus could actually cause more deaths than this virus.

Already past it I reckon.

 

[Machiavelli]

I like Hurd mentality a lot more than herd immunity and am willing to give it a try.

True, but I like most things more than I do herd immunity.

 

[atomised]

Any tips for explaining things to idiots. Just had a discussion with my sister in law who thinks they should not bother with testing the vaccine, get their head out of their backsides and start vaccinating people