Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[beorhthelm]

I agree with you about China, although Trump doesn't.
RE South Korea: is it not because they're the best prepared country and, as a result of this, have acted with astounding rapidity to this. Their economy will be one of the least affected as a result, because they're testing, tracing, isolating. And this is pretty much what WHO have been recommending for gawd knows how long, whereas Brexit Britain thought they knew better.

its nice for the WHO to recommend contact trace and testing, they dont have to worry about the resources and practicallities of doing so. and we did do this in the very early stage, it exhusted our capacity. Korea and others in that region have better capacity and protocols for doing this.

 

[Weststander]

I thought I'd bring Brexit into it, because we now have a Brexiteer government. As to "we haven't even left yet", what do you think happened on Jan 31st of this year?
And I've no idea what the policies adopted by Italy, Spain and France has got to do with our government ignoring WHO guidance for too long, but perhaps you could let me know.

Firstly, [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] made it plain that politics was to stay out of these threads. He set up another one for you elsewhere.

The Brexit agreement was signed by both parties, but as Kuenssberg and others have repeatedly told us, at present everything is as before. Months of negotiation lie ahead.

Bringing Brexit into the COVID19 thread, you must have some hard facts to hand to support its adverse effect on the UK’s COVID metrics. If continued EU membership is beneficial on this, what edge have France, Spain and Italy had in the fight against COVID over the last 2 months over us, by being destined to stay in the EU, when we won’t be? None it would appear by the sad numbers in all 4 countries.

WHO - the response in all Europe and the USA hasn’t matched their high hopes. Democracies that put restrictions on citizens as late as possible, in stages. This is a unique time, so much is being learned with differing opinions eg Sweden’s government have taken a path of no lockdown.

 

[Triggaaar]

But...basically, all the numbers make sense. They are not 'exact' but they aren't all made up either. Not even China's

I can't see the details for when the whole of China started lockdown. Anyone know?

 

[Machiavelli]

Firstly, [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION] made it plain that politics was to stay out of these threads. He set up another one for you elsewhere.

The Brexit agreement was signed by both parties, but as Kuenssberg and others have repeatedly told us, at present everything is as before. Months of negotiation lie ahead.

Bringing Brexit into the COVID19 thread, you must have some hard facts to hand to support its adverse effect on the UK’s COVID metrics. If continued EU membership is beneficial on this, what edge have France, Spain and Italy had in the fight against COVID over the last 2 months over us, by being destined to stay in the EU, when we won’t be? None it would appear by the sad numbers in all 4 countries.

WHO - the response in all Europe and the USA hasn’t matched their high hopes. Democracies that put restrictions on citizens as late as possible, in stages. This is a unique time, so much is being learned with differing opinions eg Sweden’s government have taken a path of no lockdown.

The mods can make what they want of my contributions, and if you're so keen on policing politics on here, you might prove to be extremely busy.
Again, what's going on with the EU, Spain, France, Italy or wherever has got diddly squat to do with what the UK has done to prepare ourselves for the outbreak of pandemics/epidemics. Rather than devoting 98% of our political attention to Brexit over the past four years, the UK could have chosen to take into account scientific advice on pandemics/epidemics, which was put in front of them. Jeremy Hunt was Health Secretary at that time. Hunt, now he's chair of the Health Select Committee has been extremely good during CV and, while not using that language, has intimated that our government had "dithered and delayed".
So, in short, Brexit has impacted on UK politics in multiple ways, and you've chosen to identify an association radically different from the one that was suggested by my comments surrounding the Brexit signifier.

 

[Weststander]

The mods can make what they want of my contributions, and if you're so keen on policing politics on here, you might prove to be extremely busy.
Again, what's going on with the EU, Spain, France, Italy or wherever has got diddly squat to do with what the UK has done to prepare ourselves for the outbreak of pandemics/epidemics. Rather than devoting 98% of our political attention to Brexit over the past four years, the UK could have chosen to take into account scientific advice on pandemics/epidemics, which was put in front of them. Jeremy Hunt was Health Secretary at that time. Hunt, now he's chair of the Health Select Committee has been extremely good during CV and, while not using that language, has intimated that our government had "dithered and delayed".
So, in short, Brexit has impacted on UK politics in multiple ways, and you've chosen to identify an association radically different from the one that was suggested by my comments surrounding the Brexit signifier.

All you’ve done is display your rigid thinking eternal hate of things Conservative, Brexit, and anyone who’s that way inclined.

As Remainers, we lost, as many of us have done, get over it, life really is too short.

There’s absolutely no evidence that a UK Remain or Brexit government under Starmer, May, Corbyn, Long-Bailey or anyone else would’ve been any more nimble in reacting to COVID19. You’ve well and truly entered the realm of pure speculation, to suit your agenda against the Tories. Petty party politics over opening your mind on every issue.

There are many other non-Tories on NSC who’ve maturely critiqued the events in the UK of the last few weeks, openly praising financial and health measures, whilst criticising others. A breath of fresh air, kudos to them. Whilst the odd one stays entrenched in a class war against everything this government does must be awful, because ..... well because I ‘ate Tories and anyone who supports Brexit.

 

[Hugo Rune]

[TWEET]1234801752156835840[/TWEET]

What a ****ing idiot.

Looks like the journey from initial infection to ICU is over a month. That’s very frightening indeed. I wonder how long Mr Johnson was contagious for before his period of isolation began?

 

[RossyG]

Looks like the journey from initial infection to ICU is over a month. That’s very frightening indeed. I wonder how long Mr Johnson was contagious for before his period of isolation began?

That’s assuming that he got it that day. I’m inclined to think he didn’t. I think the virus makes itself known within a week. Two to three weeks had passed from the handshaking day and the day Boris showed symptoms.

He had many other opportunities to catch the virus in the interim.

 

[Swansman]

Looks like the journey from initial infection to ICU is over a month. That’s very frightening indeed. I wonder how long Mr Johnson was contagious for before his period of isolation began?

He is the PM and probably met a 100 people every day, there is nothing that says he would have gotten infected that day. Its very unlikely even though there's been cases where the "journey" reportedly has been very slow.

 

[darkwolf666]

And so it starts, the push of economics over safety...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219930

So what exactly is government policy, is herd immunity still the answer?

 

[Rugrat]

And so it starts, the push of economics over safety...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219930

So what exactly is government policy, is herd immunity still the answer?

If, as they claim, 80% of 'us' are going to get it how many deaths does that produce? I guess it depends on what 'us' means but using the entire population doesn't seem a bad place to start

I'm not sure what the current view on mortality rates is but I assume the total is a sodding great number

 

[yxee]

I agree with you about China, although Trump doesn't.
RE South Korea: is it not because they're the best prepared country and, as a result of this, have acted with astounding rapidity to this. Their economy will be one of the least affected as a result, because they're testing, tracing, isolating. And this is pretty much what WHO have been recommending for gawd knows how long, whereas Brexit Britain thought they knew better.

Didn't we track and trace until it got to a point where that wasn't effective anymore?

Good job getting brexit into your post... sigh

 

[darkwolf666]

If, as they claim, 80% of 'us' are going to get it how many deaths does that produce? I guess it depends on what 'us' means but using the entire population doesn't seem a bad place to start

I'm not sure what the current view on mortality rates is but I assume the total is a sodding great number

I thought the 80% contraction scenario was if we did nothing about it. Is the truth really that 80% of us WILL get it, but slowing the rate of infection gives the NHS more chance to treat and therefore save more lives.

And yes, the numbers will be huge if the scientists advice in this article is correct and followed.

Oh and why do the Passport Office think people need new passports NOW?

 

[Marty___Mcfly]

I thought the 80% contraction scenario was if we did nothing about it. Is the truth really that 80% of us WILL get it, but slowing the rate of infection gives the NHS more chance to treat and therefore save more lives.

And yes, the numbers will be huge if the scientists advice in this article is correct and followed.

Oh and why do the Passport Office think people need new passports NOW?

I don’t know who is travelling and why, unless it’s repatriation flights, but it does seem like quite a few people are. Here is this morning’s departures from Heathrow-

 

[darkwolf666]

I don’t know who is travelling and why, unless it’s repatriation flights, but it does seem like quite a few people are. Here is this morning’s departures from Heathrow-

I'm guessing all those people have passports though. With stricter travel conditions coming into play there should be less need for new passports.

Is anyone really sitting at home now booking their summer holidays abroad?

To be honest, my gripe was more about people being forced to go back to work and the blase attitude of those running and advising the Passport Office...

 

[beorhthelm]

And so it starts, the push of economics over safety...

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-52219930

So what exactly is government policy, is herd immunity still the answer?

if we want to avoid the deepest ever econimc depression, and the impact to life and people that will have, we do need to return to work as soon as practical. herd immunity, through infection or immunisation, is always going to happen. it is not some maverick idea.

 

[darkwolf666]

if we want to avoid the deepest ever econimc depression, and the impact to life and people that will have, we do need to return to work as soon as practical. herd immunity, through contraction or immunisation, is always going to happen. it is not some maverick idea.

So is the government position stay indoors and only work if necessary or go to work and catch it?

As for the economic situation, surely a depression is less significant than half a million dead, which is quite possible with the 80% infection rate...

Oh, scrub that, they're mainly old and vulnerable people who don't add anything to the economy! Collateral damage... Could solve the care for the old crisis at the same time, everyone's a winner!

 

[Solid at the back]

if we want to avoid the deepest ever econimc depression, and the impact to life and people that will have, we do need to return to work as soon as practical. herd immunity, through infection or immunisation, is always going to happen. it is not some maverick idea.

True, but it is totally unacceptable to put people at risk of a disease that in 15-20% of symptomatic cases results in severe disease. I don't fancy my chances against this, and frankly couldn't give a toss about the economy over my life

 

[Machiavelli]

Didn't we track and trace until it got to a point where that wasn't effective anymore?

Good job getting brexit into your post... sigh

We stopped testing (and, as a consequence, tracking and tracing), because we haven't got enough tests. We haven't got enough tests, because: 1, we didn't prepare appropriately for a pandemic largely due to the following factors over the mid-term: it wasn't considered sufficiently serious enough; we were distracted with Brexit; proper preparation is expensive, and we were on an austerity drive; and 2, once CV19 kicked in, we didn't act quickly enough.
The smart scientific/epidemiological current position is that, short of a vaccine, testing is the only way out of this (and even with a vaccine, testing will remain important).
I take the view that things are interconnected. You can't silo them off into distinct zones.

 

[beorhthelm]

So is the government position stay indoors and only work if necessary or go to work and catch it?

As for the economic situation, surely a depression is less significant than half a million dead, which is quite possible with the 80% infection rate...

Oh, scrub that, they're mainly old and vulnerable people who don't add anything to the economy! Collateral damage... Could solve the care for the old crisis at the same time, everyone's a winner!

agree the advise is somewhat contrdictory, i hope the HO chief medical has good reason to suggest they return to work. an economic depression will lead to large numbers of deaths, poorer health and wellbeing. we are no longer projected to hit half million dead, a phased return to work will keep the number low. this will happen, this week, next week, next month. i dont make any flippant link to old or vulnerable, the same groups would be affected by a depression.

 

[darkwolf666]

agree the advise is somewhat contrdictory, i hope the HO chief medical has good reason to suggest they return to work. an economic depression will lead to large numbers of deaths, poorer health and wellbeing. we are no longer projected to hit half million dead, a phased return to work will keep the number low. this will happen, this week, next week, next month. i dont make any flippant link to old or vulnerable, the same groups would be affected by a depression.

It's not a flippant remark about the old and vulnerable, it is a reality for 1.5 million people who have been told to stay in "shielding" for 12 weeks... At the end of that 12 weeks nothing will have changed, they will still be just as vulnerable and large numbers WILL die...!

I saw a stat yesterday, but can't find the numbers now, which said most of those currently dieing are still those with underlying health issues.

So you go back to work, look after the economy, we'll be ok, locked indoors, seeing no-one, don't worry about us...

Yes, there will be a time when people will have to go back to work, but why is a government organisation flying in the face of its own advice?