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Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread



bhafc99

Well-known member
Oct 14, 2003
7,455
Dubai
My partner's Dad passed away yesterday - it hasn't been confirmed that it was Covid, but it is very strongly suspected.

Please, stay at home, take every precaution you can and do not hesitate to call for help if you need it.

Sincere condolences, that’s very sad to hear. Take care.


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dazzer6666

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Mar 27, 2013
55,530
Burgess Hill
Interesting graphic based on death rates since lockdown despite different start dates...................

death.jpg

https://twitter.com/beajayemac/status/1247183271479463936?s=20
 


A1X

Well-known member
NSC Patron
Sep 1, 2017
20,537
Deepest, darkest Sussex
I don't think the WHO know anything about that. That's not a discussion about stopping the virus, that's a discussion about what the public would prefer. Ideally you don't want to go into another lockdown, but then you also don't want the current lockdown to continue. There will be different opinions on which way is best (for the public morale, and the economy) and I'm not sure anyone really knows the answer.

The other thing to factor in as well is that the public need to think lockdowns are being used properly by Governments to sort things out. This is why the conversations about testing, PPE etc. matter, if the Government cannot say "we are using this time wisely" then people will simply start saying "well you're not doing things properly, therefore why should I?".The more times you have to lockdown, the more times you are giving the public a chance to think "well hang on a minute, WTF are you lot actually doing about this?", and each passing time will see less and less compliance I reckon.
 


rogersix

Well-known member
Jan 18, 2014
8,202
I expect the measures being taken in Italy, Spain, France and the UK are working, and we'll see the number of infections reduce. Consequently, I'm sure we'll see the lockdown restrictions eased before too long. I don't expect the restrictions will just be completely removed overnight. I imagine very large gatherings will still be banned for a bit longer, and maybe pubs and restaurants will remain closed at first.

If it then starts to look like we're heading for another peak, we might see the current lockdown measures brought back (but again, not permanently), but if that's not necessary we might just have some basic social distancing rules in place for a while.

vaguely, what percentage of the uk population do you reckon has been infected trig?
 








Blazing Apostle

Active member
Jul 30, 2011
319
Boris running the country still would seem to be a bit of a porkie if Raab his defacto 2nd in command not spoken to him since Saturday and Raab running presume the morning Corba meeting - how is Boris supposed to be communicating his wishes.....through mind waves??
 


Birdie Boy

Well-known member
Jun 17, 2011
4,387
Boris running the country still would seem to be a bit of a porkie if Raab his defacto 2nd in command not spoken to him since Saturday and Raab running presume the morning Corba meeting - how is Boris supposed to be communicating his wishes.....through mind waves??
Mobile, zoom, Skype etc...

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Dave the OAP

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,761
at home
My god.....just watch the bbc news now
 


Beach Hut

Brighton Bhuna Boy
Jul 5, 2003
72,315
Living In a Box
My partner's Dad passed away yesterday - it hasn't been confirmed that it was Covid, but it is very strongly suspected.

Please, stay at home, take every precaution you can and do not hesitate to call for help if you need it.

Really sorry to hear this, RIP
 


Machiavelli

Well-known member
Oct 11, 2013
17,770
Fiveways
My partner's Dad passed away yesterday - it hasn't been confirmed that it was Covid, but it is very strongly suspected.

Please, stay at home, take every precaution you can and do not hesitate to call for help if you need it.

Can I also join in with bothering you at this difficult time. Many condolences, and thanks for posting, not least for the advice you've added.
 






Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,134
Goldstone
vaguely, what percentage of the uk population do you reckon has been infected trig?
Oh blimey I don't know. I don't think we're looking at anything like enough to consider herd immunity a viable option in the short term. I obviously disagree with the study that suggested it could be 50% two weeks ago - that was clearly absolute bullsh*t.

It's not clear how many cases are asymptomatic, but maybe somewhere around 1 in 5, to 1 in 3. Let's say 1 in 4.
Perhaps more difficult to estimate is the number of cases requiring hospitalisation. I'll start with an estimate of 10% (taken from online reports).
Reported UK cases are 51.6k (with completed tests at of 5pm yesterday). I assume a large percentage of those will have been people in hospital, as that's where we're doing the bulk of our testing. For the sake of making a guess, I'll say they were all in hospital.
So 51.6k in hospital being 10% of symptomatic cases, means 516k total, plus 1/3 (as 1 in 4 are asymptomatic) = 688k. That's about 1% of the population.

That strikes me as very low, I wouldn't be surprised if it was considerably higher than that. If it is, then presumably less than 10% of people are actually requiring treatment in hospital. But 2 weeks after the Oxford report, I still don't imagine it's half the population.
 








Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,097
Faversham


Triggaaar

Well-known member
Oct 24, 2005
53,134
Goldstone


Harry Wilson's tackle

Harry Wilson's Tackle
NSC Patron
Oct 8, 2003
56,097
Faversham
It's a little early for me to get my hopes up on that UK figure, but is France's late peak simply a case of the French being, well, French? (by that I mean doing what the hell they want, as opposed to doing what some stupid government tells them to do)

Sort of. I suspect they over-guesstimated the numbers on Friday to cover the weekend, forgot what they'd done, added some made-up numbers over the weekend based on the Friday guesstimate, then subtracted the excess on Monday. It was a simple genuine error of judgement. :shrug:

Quoi?
 




Dave the OAP

Well-known member
Jul 5, 2003
46,761
at home
Why, what did it say?

They have a reporter and film cameraman at st Thomas’s in the intensive care unit.

It is horrific!

These healthcare workers, and yes I know I am biased as Laura is one of them, but if anyone describes these people as low skilled workers, they can go and f.uck right off
 




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