Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Notters]

And that of course doesn't include the high percentage of people (anywhere from 30-75%+ from limited studies so far) who are asymptomatic.

Or the (I would hope) 95% who have had symptoms but have not contacted the NHS (as per the instruction)?

 

[Mellotron]

Is that 30-75% of the total UK population? Sorry if that's been answered elsewhere.

No - it could be surmised from multiple studies that anywhere from 30-75%+ of infections have no symptoms at all, hence why this virus is so ruddy contagious, perhaps?

No idea how much of the population has been infected. My pure guess would be somewhere between 2-10%.

 

[Swansman]

This nasty ****ing virus. A group of friends (that I havent met in a while) all got it, I think the completely asymptomatic cases unfortunately are few.

And even the "mild" effects seem pretty ****ing rough compared to your average cold or flu. Most of them had a few "episodes" where they found it very hard to breath and everyone gets exhausted from nothing.

Dont want this shit.

**** I want all my old problems back

 

[Mellotron]

Or the (I would hope) 95% who have had symptoms but have not contacted the NHS (as per the instruction)?

Good point.

 

[nicko31]

Expected jumps, horrible none the less!

4324 new cases, 563 new deaths.

Interesting France has yet to see this many daily deaths so far and they've been locked down a good week longer than us. Someone used the term "green shoots" yesterday, think we need to retrain from that kind of language

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Or the (I would hope) 95% who have had symptoms but have not contacted the NHS (as per the instruction)?

Two of my team have classic symptoms. Neither of which will be tested. Neither have had contact with each other for over three weeks so interesting to see where they got it. I also know of two other ‘classic’ cases, again neither will be tested. Three of the four have had an illness in line with seasonal flu. The fourth only notified me today so early days.
An ex work colleague ended up in Worthing hospital on day 7. He picked his up skying in Kitzbunel. He fine now, his wife who nursed him at home is fine and hasn’t shown any symptoms.

Antibody tests can’t come soon enough.


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[The Wizard]

As we are still only doing around or just under 10k tests per day a high majority of which are hospitalised people, I’m assuming we are prioritising the most symptomatic people for testing and so the fact 4000 out of 9000 tested were positive isn’t surprising, imagine how many people have had the virus but haven’t been tested, for every one person who has been tested and been diagnosed positive there has to be at least 20 who have self isolated with symptoms that match COVID 19 and never been tested surely.

It’s a horrible death toll, but people must not think the lockdown isn’t working or going to work because of this, seen all the usual twitter idiots and scaremongering people proclaiming this shows the lockdown isn’t working. It will work, it seems many don’t understand the time lag at play.

 

[neilbard]

Shocking and going to get worse.

 

[atomised]

As we are still only doing around or just under 10k tests per day a high majority of which are hospitalised people, I’m assuming we are prioritising the most symptomatic people for testing and so the fact 4000 out of 9000 tested were positive isn’t surprising, imagine how many people have had the virus but haven’t been tested, for every one person who has been tested and been diagnosed positive there has to be at least 20 who have self isolated with symptoms that match COVID 19 and never been tested surely.

It’s a horrible death toll, but people must not think the lockdown isn’t working or going to work because of this, seen all the usual twitter idiots and scaremongering people proclaiming this shows the lockdown isn’t working. It will work, it seems many don’t understand the time lag at play.

I've seen several of those posts on social media since the deaths for today were confirmed

 

[seagull_special]

I can’t even imagine the number of cases of PTSD Covid19 will be responsible for, just thinking of the poor people working in the NHS and all the associated workers from cleaners and morgue technicians to undertakers, such an unimaginable burden. How can we ever thank them enough other than to ensure that they are adequately protected next time, god forbid. Just heartbreaking.

 

[Yoda]

I see our recovered figure is still standing at 135 and hasn't changed for a week, which may alarm some people, but I have a theory about why this isn't changing.

The figure we are seeing here are more than likely, only those who have been discharged and won't include 2,500-8,000 people who would have been sent home with only mild symptoms over the previous 7-14 days (and prior to this) to self isolate that have since recovered without there being any record/follow up testing etc.

 

[Notters]

I see our recovered figure is still standing at 135 and hasn't changed for a week, which may alarm some people, but I have a theory about why this isn't changing.

The figure we are seeing here are more than likely, only those who have been discharged and won't include 2,500-8,000 people who would have been sent home with only mild symptoms over the previous 7-14 days (and prior to this) to self isolate that have since recovered without there being any record/follow up testing etc.

You're probably right but they shouldn't really report such figures without this crucial information.

 

[Si Gull]

Interesting France has yet to see this many daily deaths so far and they've been locked down a good week longer than us. Someone used the term "green shoots" yesterday, think we need to retrain from that kind of language

Part of the problem appears to be that people now have access to data that they don't understand and/or just don't understand data. Predictions based on single points are just guesses but people turn them into trends and it gets spread all over social media. Appreciate that people want to be optimistic but it doesn't really help.

 

[Mellotron]

It’s a horrible death toll, but people must not think the lockdown isn’t working or going to work because of this, seen all the usual twitter idiots and scaremongering people proclaiming this shows the lockdown isn’t working. It will work, it seems many don’t understand the time lag at play.

There is cold hard logic to social distancing. Get the R value under 1 and the virus decreases. It will take time, nothing more than waiting it out and slowly strangling this **** of a virus.

 

[Deleted member 22389]

Think we are heading the same way as Italy and Spain now. Stay indoors.

 

[The Wizard]

There is cold hard logic to social distancing. Get the R value under 1 and the virus decreases. It will take time, nothing more than waiting it out and slowly strangling this **** of a virus.

Indeed. Unfortunately right now we are feeling the pain of what was sowed 2/3 weeks ago when society was functioning fairly normally and the week before lock down when SD advice was being flouted by people out packing pubs and clubs, I wonder how some of those people feel now they have infected their loved ones or elderly relatives. I couldn’t live with myself if my irresponsible actions led to someone else becoming seriously ill or dying let alone a family member.

We are about to enter a very painful period, there’s no doubt about that numbers will probably continue to increase but the scaremongering on social media is quite honestly disgusting, particularly from prominent celebrities who carry a big influence on much of society.

 

[Triggaaar]

i think the only point here is you dont understand the purpose of statistical modeling.

Why don't you tell me what you think the purpose of statistical modelling is

 

[Wrong-Direction]

I can’t even imagine the number of cases of PTSD Covid19 will be responsible for, just thinking of the poor people working in the NHS and all the associated workers from cleaners and morgue technicians to undertakers, such an unimaginable burden. How can we ever thank them enough other than to ensure that they are adequately protected next time, god forbid. Just heartbreaking.

Pay them more than office workers for a start

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[Deleted member 22389]

Indeed. Unfortunately right now we are feeling the pain of what was sowed 2/3 weeks ago when society was functioning fairly normally and the week before lock down when SD advice was being flouted by people out packing pubs and clubs, I wonder how some of those people feel now they have infected their loved ones or elderly relatives. I couldn’t live with myself if my irresponsible actions led to someone else becoming seriously ill or dying let alone a family member.

We are about to enter a very painful period, there’s no doubt about that numbers will probably continue to increase but the scaremongering on social media is quite honestly disgusting, particularly from prominent celebrities who carry a big influence on much of society.

Can't really add to that, it is spot on.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Dicsussion Thread

Why don't you tell me what you think the purpose of statistical modelling is

Why don’t you?
I’ve used statistical modelling both in my work and also for my masters but I doubt that cuts any ice with you.


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