Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Bozza]

I guess that is the thing, what time frame are we looking at? I've seen reports that have suggested it could last till spring 2021, so basically lets take it as 1 year. I still think for it to reach 80% infection rate within a year would take something colossal to happen, because so far the infection rates are phenomenally lower than that. I've also read reports that the virus might become seasonal, but weaker as people build up resistance. So again maybe 80% will get infected, over a long period of time but with varying/weaker strengths of the virus. I'm not trying to dismiss it, it is very serious, but 80% infection and 1 million dead seems unlikely to me given that the places that have experienced the worst of it so far, aren't anywhere near those figures.

Two things...

1. The main thing is you're ignoring exponential growth. These things start small "Oh there's only X people with it - there's nothing to worry about!", but the number doubles every 6-7 days. So 1,000 today is 2,000 next week. Then 4,000, then 8,000, then 16,000, then 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000 and 512,000 etc.

In 10 weeks time you have 1m people infected (or who have been infected). Then think about the week after that and the week after that...

2. "the places that have experienced the worst of it so far, aren't anywhere near those figures" - this hasn't actually started properly yet.

 

[Stat Brother]

If Germany change to full closure we are going to look very isolated based on that

A knock on effect of closing schools would be the amount of staff it would remove from the NHS, due to child care.

 

[Bozza]

Two things...

1. The main thing is you're ignoring exponential growth. These things start small "Oh there's only X people with it - there's nothing to worry about!", but the number doubles every 6-7 days. So 1,000 today is 2,000 next week. Then 4,000, then 8,000, then 16,000, then 32,000, 64,000, 128,000, 256,000 and 512,000 etc.

In 10 weeks time you have 1m people infected (or who have been infected). Then think about the week after that and the week after that...

2. "the places that have experienced the worst of it so far, aren't anywhere near those figures" - this hasn't actually started properly yet.

Oh, and:

3. The reported number of cases is irrelevant. That's only people who have been tested, which is biased towards those who are pretty ill. That is both good and bad...
- Good: Lots more people have had it and not suffered severely.
- Bad: ...but they've been spreading it to others.

The number of people with it in the UK will be well into 5 figures today, eg 10,000+, possibly significantly so.

 

[atomised]

A knock on effect of closing schools would be the amount of staff it would remove from the NHS, due to child care.

Then that links in with what at least one other country has done and what has been mentioned as a possibility here by way of skeleton staff in schools covering kids whose parents work for NHS. I dont know what's the correct way to go. I just thought the map showed us as very isolated. Maybe the way we are going is the correct way. None of us know yet.

 

[Stat Brother]

The number of people with it in the UK will be well into 5 figures today, eg 10,000+, possibly significantly so.

That's a big call, considering, this was the state of play at 6pm last night.:-

 

[Bozza]

That's a big call, considering, this was the state of play at 6pm last night.:-

View attachment 121076

As I said, the recorded known cases is irrelevant.

Patrick Vallance told us all this four days ago - https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...aths-symptoms-map-news-outbreak-a9398181.html

 

[Stat Brother]

As I said, the recorded known cases is irrelevant.

It's not irrelevant, don't be so ridiculous.

There has to be a number from which to extrapolate out from, or else people with absolutely no knowledge can just pluck a random figure from out of nowhere, that's suits their own personal agenda.

 

[Bozza]

It's not irrelevant, don't be so ridiculous.

There has to be a number from which to extrapolate out from, or else people with absolutely no knowledge can just pluck a random figure from out of nowhere, that's suits their own personal agenda.

As linked, the UK’s experts leading this said we had between 5,000 and 10,000 cases on Friday.

At the current rate of growth that will have increased somewhat from then.

It wasn’t my “big call” it was the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser. If you don’t like it, take it up with him. He may be a bit busy though so be patient on a response.

 

[Stat Brother]

As linked, the UK’s experts leading this said we had between 5,000 and 10,000 cases on Friday.

At the current rate of growth that will have increased somewhat from then.

It wasn’t my “big call” it was the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser. If you don’t like it, take it up with him. He may be a bit busy though so be patient on a response.

I'll be taking him to task about calling the current numbers irrelevant, or at least I would if he'd actually said it.
From that clip he seemed to be basing his entire strategy on those 'irrelevant' numbers.

 

[Guinness Boy]

View attachment 121075

We had a questionnaire to fill in over the weekend from my daughter's school. Schools themselves (I am NOT talking about the government here as I don't know, but I presume the government is informing schools) are particularly concerned with three things that could negatively impact when schools close:

1) Kids with parents who work for the NHS or emergency services would potentially cause their nurse / doctor / ambulance driver parent to go off work to look after them. Not a great idea TBH.
2) OR kids with parents who have to work will give them to elderly and infirm grandparents to look after. Again not great.
3) Some kids from poorer families really only get a good meal at school and will not have access to things like books at home. Poorer families may be made ever poorer if the one working parent cannot get to work.

As linked, the UK’s experts leading this said we had between 5,000 and 10,000 cases on Friday.

At the current rate of growth that will have increased somewhat from then.

It wasn’t my “big call” it was the UK’s Chief Scientific Adviser. If you don’t like it, take it up with him. He may be a bit busy though so be patient on a response.

I believe [MENTION=1200]Harry Wilson's tackle[/MENTION] actually knows the bloke and has suggested a couple of times that he's not to be trusted.

 

[Swansman]

Exponential growth means that if it, like they are stating, the disease is doubling in three days, by the first week of April there will be 100 000 new cases every day, 5-15% getting hospitalised - thats 10 000 or so every day. If they fail to "flatten the curve", image what it looks like the month after that.

I just dont understand how many in here who can not understand how serious the situation is.

 

[atomised]

Are other countries showing this exponential growth. I'm only asking because I'm too lazy to sit and work it out myself.

 

[Braggfan]

Exponential growth means that if it, like they are stating, the disease is doubling in three days, by the first week of April there will be 100 000 new cases every day, 5-15% getting hospitalised - thats 10 000 or so every day. If they fail to "flatten the curve", image what it looks like the month after that.

I just dont understand how many in here who can not understand how serious the situation is.

I just don't understand why a non Brighton fan keeps posting on the Brighton forum.

 

[Tom Hark Preston Park]

Exponential growth means that if it, like they are stating, the disease is doubling in three days, by the first week of April there will be 100 000 new cases every day, 5-15% getting hospitalised - thats 10 000 or so every day. If they fail to "flatten the curve", image what it looks like the month after that.

I just dont understand how many in here who can not understand how serious the situation is.

I'll take me stats from China cheers, where with a population of a billion they had less than a dozen new cases reported this morning. That's the blueprint approach to take IMHO, rather than relying on some wanky modelling software. Cos that worked so well in the lead up to the global financial crisis

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

We had a questionnaire to fill in over the weekend from my daughter's school. Schools themselves (I am NOT talking about the government here as I don't know, but I presume the government is informing schools) are particularly concerned with three things that could negatively impact when schools close:

1) Kids with parents who work for the NHS or emergency services would potentially cause their nurse / doctor / ambulance driver parent to go off work to look after them. Not a great idea TBH.
2) OR kids with parents who have to work will give them to elderly and infirm grandparents to look after. Again not great.
3) Some kids from poorer families really only get a good meal at school and will not have access to things like books at home. Poorer families may be made ever poorer if the one working parent cannot get to work.



I believe [MENTION=1200]Harry Wilson's tackle[/MENTION] actually knows the bloke and has suggested a couple of times that he's not to be trusted.

The truth is somewhere in between, but much closer to the latter....he very certainly does not have access to information, or the specialist expertise to assess information about viral transmission or indeed the social impact of this contagion. Nobody has sufficient information, yet (a point I have made repeatedly), and separately the impact of social isolation, quarantining for 'up to' 4 months, etc., on several billion people, 60 odd million in the UK, is unknown. The bloke has put his foot in it by trying to sound authoritative and giving advice that has been changed days later, while giving the impression (accepted on face value by the likes of [MENTION=6886]Bozza[/MENTION], and why not?) that he is a world authority and knows best. He isn't and doesn't.

The government is going to have to put in place a mechanism to ensure that the self employed and others whose income has, or will soon, vanish are not greviously damaged by this. Without help we could have thousands of people homeless in a month. Some people have posted on here their personal concerns - imagine the numbers who are not minded to post on a football chat site about such stuff.

 

[golddene]

What about flies in the summer?
Pick it up in your house fly out of the window and land on my food a few doors down.
Obviously it would reduce the rate of infections but it couldn't rule it out 100% ?

I have no idea if this is possible by the way.

Yes, and Mosquitos, people around where I live have ponds and ever since I moved here I get bites and have to take anti hestimines as am infected quite easily, so plenty of deet now the warmer weather is coming.
We have taken to self isolation for the past 3-4 weeks as are retired and only go out when absolutely necessary, especially so as we both have underlying health issues which puts us in the at risk grouping.
All anyone can do is minimise their own risk and minimise the risk they put on others. How on earth people who have to work and travel are going to cope is beyond me. Just keep safe people and hope we all come through this together.

 

[The Andy Naylor Fan Club]

Virgin Atlantic will cut four-fifths of its flights and has asked staff to take eight weeks of unpaid leave. Billionaire Richard Branson asking staff to take 8 weeks unpaid leave.

 

[Bold Seagull]

Quite an interesting behavioural science piece:

It is now just shy of 24 hours since Boris Johnson told us to carry on as normal.

Public transport is deserted, pubs and restaurants are closing down, the football’s cancelled, the rugby’s off – and it has to be acknowledged that the government’s “nudge unit” has played a blinder.

It has come in for a fair bit of criticism, the Behavioural Insights Team, to give it its proper name, for seeming to be behind the UK having a wildly different coronavirus battle plan to the rest of the world, but credit where credit’s due.

It can only have been the nudge unit’s idea to get the least trusted man in the nation’s history to tell us that any kind of mass public lockdown would be counterproductive at this stage. Because 20 minutes later, it was immediately like I Am Legend out there.

 

[Stat Brother]

Exponential growth means that if it, like they are stating, the disease is doubling in three days, by the first week of April there will be 100 000 new cases every day, 5-15% getting hospitalised - thats 10 000 or so every day. If they fail to "flatten the curve", image what it looks like the month after that.

I just dont understand how many in here who can not understand how serious the situation is.

Are other countries showing this exponential growth.

Seems like a reasonable question.


I have no doubt we've only just left the start line of a race we have no idea where the finish line might be.
But with actual professionals at odds on just about every aspect of this virus, I struggle to see how people on here can determine where we will be at tomorrow, let alone a 2 few weeks from now.

 

[Denis]

This morning I had two texts, one from Hove Medical Centre requesting that I don’t visit the surgery etc. the other text reminding me of my dental checkup appointment at Portslade Village dental surgery. I would have thought a routine dental checkup isn’t that important in the grand scale of things. If I had toothache maybe, but I’m not sure I want to sit in a waiting room with others (they are always running late) and then have the dentist poking around in my mouth.