Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

The earlier quote of four months seems to have been replaced by “extended time” and then there is this

The Scottish government has set out its interpretation of the strategy, saying it had no plans to isolate the elderly, but would instead "ask them to reduce social contact".
Jeane Freeman, Mr Hancock's counterpart in Scotland, said: "We don't want people who are elderly to be stuck in their homes alone not contacting anyone, with their families not able to be in touch with them and to help them.
"What we're saying to them is, reduce your contact."

Just heard a doctor on a R5 radio phone in say he thinks that at some point later this week the over-70s are likely to be asked to self isolate for 4 months.

People are just making stuff up, and the broadcasters and the listeners are lapping it up.

We had a pleasant walk, and now I've got a Durutti Column CD on. Nice.

All the best

 

[Seasider78]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

We will have a higher death rate then China, much higher. Italy will over take them in a few days too, they've added nearly another 400 deaths today. They are running at around 7% death rate. But if you just do sums on the cases that have ended and have an outcome, they are at 43% death rate. Only 2335 have recovered. Eye watering figures.

With many having mild symptoms that would go unreported, people struggling to differentiate having normal cold and flu with this and a new approach to self isolating without testing then the death % rate is very likely to be overstated. As we enter the new phase tracking credible figures for cases is going to disappear

 

[Bodian]

I’m still struggling to see how isolating those over 70 is going to either protect them or the rest of the population.

IF everyone over 70, (approximately a sixth of the population), does isolate themselves and manage not to contract the virus then there will be no “safe” time to end that isolation unless a vaccine has been manufactured. Reports suggest that one won’t be available for at least twelve months!

The Coronavirus will still be at large in four, six, eight months time. Seventy or eighty percent of the general population may well no longer be at risk, having been infected and since recovered, but if suddenly there are an additional ten million plus older people “released” into that population then surely there will be another spike in the numbers infected and this time they will all be in the high risk group.

If the aim is not to overwhelm the health service then I don’t really see this strategy as working. Surely better to take measures to keep the rate of infection as low as possible across the whole population and not try to prevent certain sections of society from being infected.

I think the point is that the majority of the 'non vulnerable' will not need hospital treatment. So the idea is to slow down the rate of infection amongst those most likely to need hospital treatment - thereby spreading the demand on NHS resources out over time. I don't think there's any real expectation that the vulnerable will be completely isolated, the point is to reduce contact as much as possible to slow it all down.

 

[rogersix]

Ofcourse it does. It means exactly what I've just said, that of cases that have had an outcome 43% have died.

does 368 mean exactly 400?

 

[Hugo Rune]

https://youtu.be/0MeKt4MKyoA

 

[Weststander]

We will have a higher death rate then China, much higher. Italy will over take them in a few days too, they've added nearly another 400 deaths today. They are running at around 7% death rate. But if you just do sums on the cases that have ended and have an outcome, they are at 43% death rate. Only 2335 have recovered. Eye watering figures.

The WHO released up to date figures today showing an 8% mortality rate, of those who’d had the virus.




How are you creatively coming up with the 43% rate?

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

There are still a lot more old people in China that Italy. Using the Chinese figures to try and argue that the virus isn't too deadly is daft or disingenuous. They've quarantined the whole country, and that can't last. And we're not doing that here.

What do you expect the death toll here to be ? 40 million infections would equate to 400 000 to 1 600 000

 

[Weststander]

Germany closing their borders now , we are so out of step it’s crazy

Goose-step?

 

[Bakero]

Older population

:

 

[Creaky]

I think the point is that the majority of the 'non vulnerable' will not need hospital treatment. So the idea is to slow down the rate of infection amongst those most likely to need hospital treatment - thereby spreading the demand on NHS resources out over time. I don't think there's any real expectation that the vulnerable will be completely isolated, the point is to reduce contact as much as possible to slow it all down.

I understand that argument IF those told to stay isolated at home don’t do as they are told. If however those over 70 are told to self-isolate and the vast majority are obedient then they won’t catch it until the period of isolation ends at which point the whole group, 10 million or so, become likely to be infected within a short period putting an even bigger strain on the NHS.

So if the advice to self-isolate is announced should we 70+ citizens just ignore that advice? I have to say I’m of that mind.

 

[Wozza]

Just heard a doctor on a R5 radio phone in say he thinks that at some point later this week the over-70s are likely to be asked to self isolate for 4 months.

People are just making stuff up, and the broadcasters and the listeners are lapping it up.

We had a pleasant walk, and now I've got a Durutti Column CD on. Nice.

All the best

You been out ALL day, Dr Mike?! This has come from the health secretary!

He discussed it on the Andrew Marr and Sophy Ridge shows this morning.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-self-isolate-potentially-for-months-11957770

 

[beorhthelm]

crazy thing is all these countries saying they'll close boarders, except... people lockdown, except... no one really going all in Chinese style. the stats are wildly different between countries, which will be interesting for post analysis. we need to understand no healthcare system is prepared for such a enormous ramp up in serious ICU need. meanwhile we have media catastrophising, focusing on shortages and we shouldnt panic buy, but finding experts to tell us there is no stored food, despite the existance of warehousing industry. crazy indeed.

 

[Wrong-Direction]

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Sent from my SM-A600FN using Tapatalk

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

:

I see what you did there a total contradiction from me, lol

 

[Guinness Boy]

The more I see of this, the more my long held suspicion that we need to replace parliamentary democracy with some sort of benign dictatorship of the cerebrally well-endowed is growing from a musing to an emergent certainty.

All these political edicts have one eye on best guess and the other on what the electorate might think, later, come the next election.

The medical spokespeople, too, are clueless with, as I have noted elsewhere, Patrick Vallance as a typical example of someone who does not have his job because he is the smartest medic in the land,but because he is the most politically astute (in terms of transforming his modest abilities into a series of eye-catching and eye-wateringly well-paid jobs).

I'm going down the beach now with the family for some fresh air.

The problem is the world is in this mess because of the corrupt dictatorship in China and the corrupt ever-changing shitfest in charge of Italy.

 

[Uncle Spielberg]

I understand that argument IF those told to stay isolated at home don’t do as they are told. If however those over 70 are told to self-isolate and the vast majority are obedient then they won’t catch it until the period of isolation ends at which point the whole group, 10 million or so, become likely to be infected within a short period putting an even bigger strain on the NHS.

So if the advice to self-isolate is announced should we 70+ citizens just ignore that advice? I have to say I’m of that mind.

Apparently the police and army will be patrolling the streets so if you look a bit old will be told off and forced back to your home

 

[Creaky]

Apparently the police and army will be patrolling the streets so if you look a bit old will be told off and forced back to your home

Prepared for that

 

[Triggaaar]

What do you expect the death toll here to be ?

There are far too many variables to be able to have an accurate guess, but if it matched the figures you've got from China (3100 from 1.5 Billion), then we'd be looking at 136 people. If that were to be the case I'd literally cry with joy. But it obviously won't be the case, which is why I can't understand you quoting the figures from China as if to say there's not much to worry about.

40 million infections would equate to 400 000 to 1 600 000

One of the problems with 40 million infections (if within the next year) is that the vast majority of cases needing hospital treatment, wouldn't get it. The fatality rate could be well over 1%, although we hope the figures from around the world over-estimate the fatality rate, because of the milder cases that go unreported.

My gut feeling at the moment is that the world needs to vastly reduce the amount of contact between people over the next year, to keep the numbers under some level of control, so that we have a bit of a chance of managing this disaster. And I very much hope that the warmer weather comes and helps.

 

[Hampster Gull]

Germany closing their borders now , we are so out of step it’s crazy

Wouldn’t happen in Germany

 

[Harry Wilson's tackle]

You been out ALL day, Dr Mike?! This has come from the health secretary!

He discussed it on the Andrew Marr and Sophy Ridge shows this morning.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavi...-self-isolate-potentially-for-months-11957770

Yes. 'Discussed'. What he said was that in the coming weeks (i.e., at some point in the future) over 70s would be asked to self isolate. The 'for up to 4 months' comes from "When pushed on whether they could be asked to isolate for up to four months, he said: "That is in the action plan, yes. And we will be setting it out in more detail when that's the right time to do so, because we appreciate it is a very big ask of the elderly and vulnerable, and it's for their own self-protection."

My take is that people may be asked to self isolate, and if this happens there will be a plan in place to ensure that folk aren't left isolated to starve to death. He didn't say that, of course. Neither did he say "who knows what the **** will happen to them when we lock them in their own homes without support" either.

All of this is along the lines of 'we cannot rule anything in, or anything out, and decisions will be made at the appropriate times'.

In other words, as I have said repeatedly, they don't know what they are doing. Yet.

Alos, the health secretary is clearly qualified to discuss medical matters. Before entering politics, Matt worked for his family business. He studied philosophy, politics and economics at Exeter College, Oxford and economics at Christ's College, Cambridge. He was an economist at the Bank of England before becoming an economic advisor (and later chief of staff) to George Osborne.

Pass me an aspirin

Incidentally, regarding 'up to 4 months', did I ever tell you that I shagged Angelina Jolie up to 4 times?

Hope all's well with you Warren, me old fruit