Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Silverhatch]

When this is all over I do wonder what our view of acceptable number of deaths due to seasonal of flu will be?


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When this plays out, the underlying public education regarding personal hygiene (washing hands) and (catching) coughing-sneezing 'should' help with season flu transmission. However, most people will accept that when panic and crisis management goes, and people very quickly return to 'normal', then the lessons learnt will equally quickly be forgotten.

 

[Nobby]

Blimey, that's a bit unnecessary.

I'm obviously one of the ones who've repeated my concerns about the virus. Although I wouldn't want to think of myself as scaremongering, perhaps I am and perhaps a bit of fear for us all is a good thing, if it makes us all wash our hands more and congregate less, which will save lives.

I also think we wouldn't be repeating our concerns if it weren't for those telling us 'FFS it's only a cold'.

[emoji106]

 

[Triggaaar]

I suppose the question I now have has is

Why is our Government doing less than all other Governments?

Czech Republic just announced their 40th case - and they’re shutting down large public events? We, on the other hand will announce our 500th case today and everything is still running as normal.

This.

 

[Guinness Boy]

People who are continuing to refute the exponential nature of this would do well to read this: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

A copy-and-paste of a few paragraphs for those who can't be arsed to click:

"Much of the current discourse on — and dismissal of — the Covid-19 outbreak focuses on comparisons of the total case load and total deaths with those caused by seasonal influenza. But these comparisons can be deceiving, especially in the early stages of an exponential curve as a novel virus tears through an immunologically naïve population.

"As of March 8, about 500 cases of Covid-19 had been diagnosed in the U.S. Given the substantial underdiagnosis at present due to limitations in testing for the coronavirus, let’s say there are 2,000 current cases, a conservative starting bet.

We can expect a doubling of cases every six days, according to several epidemiological studies. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster (or slower) in the short term as diagnostic capabilities are ramped up (or not), but this is how fast we can expect actual new cases to rise in the absence of substantial mitigation measures.

That means we are looking at about 1 million U.S. cases by the end of April; 2 million by May 7; 4 million by May 13; and so on...

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.

If I’m wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by six days (one doubling time) in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22."

While I agree that is scary, isn't it assuming that infection rates and case seriousness are linear? As we're seeing play out Italy probably has a worse situation than that on its doorstep whereas Germany, with more numeric cases than the UK, doesn't at all.

 

[WATFORD zero]

I suppose the question I now have has is

Why is our Government doing less than all other Governments?

Czech Republic just announced their 40th case - and they’re shutting down large public events? We, on the other hand will announce our 500th case today and everything is still running as normal.

This.

I'm guessing it's probably either that the PM and Government are very carefully monitoring the curve to introduce sanctions at the perfect time to hit the maximum rate of infection, or they are a bunch of totally incompetent idiots.

I'm just not sure which

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Blimey, that's a bit unnecessary.

I'm obviously one of the ones who've repeated my concerns about the virus. Although I wouldn't want to think of myself as scaremongering, perhaps I am and perhaps a bit of fear for us all is a good thing, if it makes us all wash our hands more and congregate less, which will save lives.

I also think we wouldn't be repeating our concerns if it weren't for those telling us 'FFS it's only a cold'.

It’s about perspective. I am more concerned now that I was in January but certainly not in the ‘we are all going to die’ camp. For me it’s also about context. Clearly what is happening in Italy is not the norm outside of China and Iran. We should all try and understand why, as this will put us in a better position to make informed choices. The advice being given such as washing hands, covering mouth when sneezing or coughing and self isolation if symptoms show are the same measures that stopped the spread of SARS though the transmission rate for SARS is lower.

To much fear leads to panic and people make bad decisions when they panic. Obviously ignoring it (Iran and Italy) isn’t the right either.


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[atomised]

This.

This. Except I must've missed the bit where we hit 500 yesterday when that was posted

 

[BLOCK F]

It is a pity that one poster, in particular, cannot help himself and is desperately trying to make political points over this crisis.

 

[Guinness Boy]

It is a pity that one poster, in particular, cannot help himself and is desperately trying to make political points over this crisis.

As I said yesterday, this whole thing is political, or at least governmental. The government's number one responsibility is to keep its citizens safe and its country and economy running as best it can. "Get Brexit Done" was a nice slogan but it's going to take a back seat to this stuff, and rightly so.

It's odd that the "don't politicise it" message seems to come from the board's Tories as well because Boris may well be playing a blinder. Today we are not Italy, yesterday stocks rallied and we seem to be hitting a nice balance between containment and panic. Perhaps he should only be judged after the event, but he should definitely be judged.

 

[beorhthelm]

so far government is following the medical advice arent they? or is there some call for different action coming from medical sources (rather than implied from media sources)?

 

[BLOCK F]

I'm guessing it's probably either that the PM and Government are very carefully monitoring the curve to introduce sanctions at the perfect time to hit the maximum rate of infection, or they are a bunch of totally incompetent idiots.

I'm just not sure which

Possibly they are taking the advice of the Chief Medic and Chief Scientist and all the other boffins who work with them.

 

[pb21]

The US, Germany, Spain and France all currently seeing massive increases in numbers...

 

[highflyer]

I'm guessing it's probably either that the PM and Government are very carefully monitoring the curve to introduce sanctions at the perfect time to hit the maximum rate of infection, or they are a bunch of totally incompetent idiots.

I'm just not sure which

I'm guessing (and also really, REALLY hoping) that the PM has little to no say in ths decision making. And those with the greatest knowledge and expertise at their disposal are making the decisions and that your option 1 is correct.

I'd imagine that the correct course of action in any given country differs based on the structure of its society, it's culture, the strength of authority that can be exercised, the strength of it's health system and it's 'starting position' in terms of number of cases. Both China and South Korea seem to be finding ways to get a grip, but using very different approaches.

 

[Bozza]

so far government is following the medical advice arent they? or is there some call for different action coming from medical sources (rather than implied from media sources)?

Another good statnews piece. I reckon you could put the UK in the position of the US of this - https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/11/flattening-curve-coronavirus/

 

[peterward]

Which prompts me to ask, on here, a question I've had in my mind for a while - when does living with the threat of covid-19 become the "new normal"?

A vaccine will take 12-18 months to produce and may not be effective against every mutation. I doubt a cure is even on the radar. Will the world spend 18 months with restricted travel, no sports or big gatherings, working from home and no handshakes? Can Italy lockdown for 18 months? Isn't China already lifting restrictions in the face of a slowing growth rate? When will we really hit "the peak"?

I don't know any of the answers btw.

None of us have a clue what to do

That was sort of the crazy point, if there's a massively statistically high chance it's coming to our front door at some stage in the next few months. I'd sooner take my chances with the milder strain rather than the Wuhan one or some new worse mutation. How you'd achieve that though is nigh on impossible I'd guess.

 

[Albion Dan]

I don’t understand why anyone is quoting the 80% infection rate stated as absolute worst case scenario. Well before it could get anywhere close to those numbers we’d be in China style lock down a country of 1.4bn who seem to have stemmed the tide at less than 100k infected. Everyone keeps quoting Italian stats but ignoring Germany’s. It is actually helpful as it means people are being more careful earlier but why would we be on par with the worst benchmark and not one of the best?

 

[Nobby]

I'm guessing it's probably either that the PM and Government are very carefully monitoring the curve to introduce sanctions at the perfect time to hit the maximum rate of infection, or they are a bunch of totally incompetent idiots.

I'm just not sure which

Touch and go which it is [emoji849]

 

[Rodney Thomas]

While I agree that is scary, isn't it assuming that infection rates and case seriousness are linear? As we're seeing play out Italy probably has a worse situation than that on its doorstep whereas Germany, with more numeric cases than the UK, doesn't at all.

Germany only have 18 closed cases and have jumped from just over 200 to 1500 in 5 days. They have an awful lot of open cases and an awful lot of people who have the virus but currently don't know they do. There is a very good chance that it will explode in Germany soon and follow a similar linear to Italy.

 

[peterward]

People who are continuing to refute the exponential nature of this would do well to read this: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

A copy-and-paste of a few paragraphs for those who can't be arsed to click:

"Much of the current discourse on — and dismissal of — the Covid-19 outbreak focuses on comparisons of the total case load and total deaths with those caused by seasonal influenza. But these comparisons can be deceiving, especially in the early stages of an exponential curve as a novel virus tears through an immunologically naïve population.

"As of March 8, about 500 cases of Covid-19 had been diagnosed in the U.S. Given the substantial underdiagnosis at present due to limitations in testing for the coronavirus, let’s say there are 2,000 current cases, a conservative starting bet.

We can expect a doubling of cases every six days, according to several epidemiological studies. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster (or slower) in the short term as diagnostic capabilities are ramped up (or not), but this is how fast we can expect actual new cases to rise in the absence of substantial mitigation measures.

That means we are looking at about 1 million U.S. cases by the end of April; 2 million by May 7; 4 million by May 13; and so on...

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.

If I’m wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by six days (one doubling time) in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22."

There won't be any 'I told you so',..... And optimism is a fine trait, but a day will soon come when the "it's just a flu" or "nothing much to worry about" camp will have their initial opinions overtaken by rapidly worsening events.

In a social democracy there is simply no way we can stop this without a cure or it mutating itself away.

In a social democracy, like many, with health services already creaking, its going to be one of the most defining periods of history in any of our lifetimes imho. And we're powerless to do much except pick up the wreckage.

 

[BLOCK F]

As I said yesterday, this whole thing is political, or at least governmental. The government's number one responsibility is to keep its citizens safe and its country and economy running as best it can. "Get Brexit Done" was a nice slogan but it's going to take a back seat to this stuff, and rightly so.

It's odd that the "don't politicise it" message seems to come from the board's Tories as well because Boris may well be playing a blinder. Today we are not Italy, yesterday stocks rallied and we seem to be hitting a nice balance between containment and panic. Perhaps he should only be judged after the event, but he should definitely be judged.

So,is the Government taking advice from the medics and scientists and following that advice? I am sure they are; the same I am sure Corbyn would have done if he had become PM.
Without having an intimate knowledge of everyone's politics, I cannot agree with your 'board's Tories' comment, but it does appear that most on here believe that the Government are listening to the best advice and implementing it as appropriate in a country such as ours, as opposed to a regime like China.
For me and plenty of others, I would suggest politics don't come into it and I am sure that goes for the boffins as well.