Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Lever]

Taken from a post elsewhere; apologies if you have seen it but I thought it was a valuable statement......


I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

 

[Triggaaar]

According to a scientist on R5L this morning there is now “tension” between the scientific community who are recommending taking preventive action now and the government who want to defer for time being.

He reckoned that the scientists are biting their tongues for now to present a united front but that if no action is being taken by the end of the week that they will start to break rank.

It seems that the gov’t are more concerned with £ than the population.

It could be that the government are concerned that if they bring in strict rules now, the population will think it's over the top, and either not stick to them in the first place, or not stick with them for long enough, whereas if the virus has spread more people will think 'yeah fair enough'.

Personally I'd go for stricter rules now. Last week we decided we won't go to the Arsenal game. I think there's a benefit of stopping things before it's too late.

 

[Hugo Rune]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

The real situation in Italy, this tweet shows how their health service is unable to cope.

https://twitter.com/jasonvanschoor/status/1237142891077697538?s=19

Luckily, comparison with Italy is not really relevant. They have eldest population in the world (except Japan) because of their diet. Sadly, the old people live with the young. It’s a shame our awful government did not take decisive action and screen all flights from Northern Italy once it became clear that they’d lost control.

For a comparison, this is the rate of infection/death we should be looking at for the UK:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Similar climate, household structures and world class health care. The government want you to panic though, it’s the only way Bojo can carry out his Churchill fantasy!

 

[Is it PotG?]

Gone from 94 to 358 in five days in Sweden. NO schools have closed, NO travel restrictions (except for "we suggest you dont go to Italy"). Dead quiet from our politicians. And 30 years of destroying our own healthcare system means we have about 500 intensive care beds...

And even if I think its a bit wacky it would actually be a bit comforting if someone started piling up toilet paper and pasta instead of everyone shrugging their shoulders. Its really easy to detect the downsides of 200 years of peace once shit like this happens, no one understands the smell of a looming crisis and everyone blindly trust the government to deal with it.

Could easily see us among the worst in a few weeks, could get really nasty.

So, amidst the Brexit campaigning it went 'We should listen to the experts' and remain.

Now it's 'Don't listen to the experts, we need to self-isolate TODAY'.

Wot a fickle bunch.

 

[Triggaaar]

Better make the most of Saturday’s game then, could be last home game we see this season?

Why would it be the last game? Obviously the answer is because of the concern of spreading the virus, so why aren't we concerned now? Better just to stop going now IMO.

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Coronavirus / Covid-19

On Saturday ( assuming it goes ahead) my son has my ticket as he’s back from uni and I’ll be with my daughter and wife at uni of Nottingham for an offer day. She is to study children’s nursing, the open day is that hospital .... they haven’t cancelled.

There are 280,000 people in Brighton and hove and 8 cases of the virus the odds are so small that you would bump into someone with it. 0.003%.
However if you are in an ‘at risk’ group or live with some who is then I would most likely do the same.
As was pointed out to me at the weekend ‘ for 80% of the population it’s just flu, for the other 20% it’s another ball game entirely’.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk

 

[Triggaaar]

TBH, common sense things like Handwashing

I agree, although I don't think people have the discipline to do that enough. I think I'm probably decent at it, but I had to force myself to wash my hands after coming home from Tesco last night, so I'm bound to not bother a lot of the time.

and avoiding crowds etc will eventually work, especially if applied early enough.

That's why I think we should just stop sporting events now. Switzerland stopped crowds of over 1000 a week or so ago, and France have too (no doubt plenty of others have). It will happen here, so I don't get the advantage of waiting until the virus has spread more.

 

[Fitzcarraldo]

Taken from a post elsewhere; apologies if you have seen it but I thought it was a valuable statement......


I'm a doctor and an Infectious Diseases Specialist. I've been at this for more than 20 years seeing sick patients on a daily basis. I have worked in inner city hospitals and in the poorest slums of Africa. HIV-AIDS, Hepatitis,TB, SARS, Measles, Shingles, Whooping cough, Diphtheria...there is little I haven't been exposed to in my profession. And with notable exception of SARS, very little has left me feeling vulnerable, overwhelmed or downright scared.

I am not scared of Covid-19. I am concerned about the implications of a novel infectious agent that has spread the world over and continues to find new footholds in different soil. I am rightly concerned for the welfare of those who are elderly, in frail health or disenfranchised who stand to suffer mostly, and disproportionately, at the hands of this new scourge. But I am not scared of Covid-19.

What I am scared about is the loss of reason and wave of fear that has induced the masses of society into a spellbinding spiral of panic, stockpiling obscene quantities of anything that could fill a bomb shelter adequately in a post-apocalyptic world. I am scared of the N95 masks that are stolen from hospitals and urgent care clinics where they are actually needed for front line healthcare providers and instead are being donned in airports, malls, and coffee lounges, perpetuating even more fear and suspicion of others. I am scared that our hospitals will be overwhelmed with anyone who thinks they " probably don't have it but may as well get checked out no matter what because you just never know..." and those with heart failure, emphysema, pneumonia and strokes will pay the price for overfilled ER waiting rooms with only so many doctors and nurses to assess.

I am scared that travel restrictions will become so far reaching that weddings will be canceled, graduations missed and family reunions will not materialize. And well, even that big party called the Olympic Games...that could be kyboshed too. Can you even
imagine?

I'm scared those same epidemic fears will limit trade, harm partnerships in multiple sectors, business and otherwise and ultimately culminate in a global recession.

But mostly, I'm scared about what message we are telling our kids when faced with a threat. Instead of reason, rationality, openmindedness and altruism, we are telling them to panic, be fearful, suspicious, reactionary and self-interested.

Covid-19 is nowhere near over. It will be coming to a city, a hospital, a friend, even a family member near you at some point. Expect it. Stop waiting to be surprised further. The fact is the virus itself will not likely do much harm when it arrives. But our own behaviors and "fight for yourself above all else" attitude could prove disastrous.

I implore you all. Temper fear with reason, panic with patience and uncertainty with education. We have an opportunity to learn a great deal about health hygiene and limiting the spread of innumerable transmissible diseases in our society. Let's meet this challenge together in the best spirit of compassion for others, patience, and above all, an unfailing effort to seek truth, facts and knowledge as opposed to conjecture, speculation and catastrophizing.

Facts not fear. Clean hands. Open hearts.
Our children will thank us for it.

Edit: a Dr did write it

 

[Guinness Boy]

Luckily, comparison with Italy is not really relevant. They have eldest population in the world (except Japan) because of their diet. Sadly, the old people live with the young. It’s a shame our awful government did not take decisive action and screen all flights from Northern Italy once it became clear that they’d lost control.

For a comparison, this is the rate of infection/death we should be looking at for the UK:
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/germany/

Similar climate, household structures and world class health care. The government want you to panic though, it’s the only way Bojo can carry out his Churchill fantasy!

The Diamond Princess being a case on its own is interesting there. I would say most cruise takers are middle aged and we certainly had the closest to "laboratory" conditions of anywhere there - initial uncontrolled mixing followed by isolation as best as possible, but with the virus active. Almost exactly on the 1% death rate and only 32 serious cases out of 696 confirmed. 325 of those have completely recovered.

It would suggest a mild, quick illness in about 50% and a relatively mild, but longer to recover from illness in the vast majority.

 

[peterward]

The Diamond Princess being a case on its own is interesting there. I would say most cruise takers are middle aged and we certainly had the closest to "laboratory" conditions of anywhere there - initial uncontrolled mixing followed by isolation as best as possible, but with the virus active. Almost exactly on the 1% death rate and only 32 serious cases out of 696 confirmed. 325 of those have completely recovered.

It would suggest a mild, quick illness in about 50% and a relatively mild, but longer to recover from illness in the vast majority.

This may sound barmy as I guess nobody wants to catch it. But it just seems inevitable it will get many of us before summer. With a vaccine over a year away we're not going to have the UK under social restriction quarantine till early next year.

On that basis, as there's allegedly 2 strains and one being much milder, if it gets to point there's nothing more we can do to stop it, it be would be preferable to somehow get the milder version. If there was any way that could be possible.

It suggests once you've had it, you're immune. And if you can't avoid it forever, would there be a way you can get the lite version rather than the original aggressive Wuhan one.?

 

[Hugo Rune]

The Diamond Princess being a case on its own is interesting there. I would say most cruise takers are middle aged and we certainly had the closest to "laboratory" conditions of anywhere there - initial uncontrolled mixing followed by isolation as best as possible, but with the virus active. Almost exactly on the 1% death rate and only 32 serious cases out of 696 confirmed. 325 of those have completely recovered.

It would suggest a mild, quick illness in about 50% and a relatively mild, but longer to recover from illness in the vast majority.

The transmission rate on that cruise is also very interesting, about 25% caught the virus in a closed environment where you’d expect it to spread a lot more than on land. Yet, the government are talking about an 80% infection rate and are clearly scaring the bejesus out of some people.

After Bojo has worked his daily 4 or 5 hours, I suspect he is busy penning a Churchillesque speech he’ll deliver when deaths pass a mark such as 100 (They won’t).

 

[Guinness Boy]

The social and economic consequences of an 18-month social distancing period make me think that is just not a possible proposition.

This may sound barmy as I guess nobody wants to catch it. But it just seems inevitable it will get many of us before summer. With a vaccine over a year away we're not going to have the UK under social restriction quarantine till early next year.

On that basis, as there's allegedly 2 strains and one being much milder, if it gets to point there's nothing more we can do to stop it, it be would be preferable to somehow get the milder version. If there was any way that could be possible.

It suggests once you've had it, you're immune. And if you can't avoid it forever, would there be a way you can get the lite version rather than the original aggressive Wuhan one.?

Which prompts me to ask, on here, a question I've had in my mind for a while - when does living with the threat of covid-19 become the "new normal"?

A vaccine will take 12-18 months to produce and may not be effective against every mutation. I doubt a cure is even on the radar. Will the world spend 18 months with restricted travel, no sports or big gatherings, working from home and no handshakes? Can Italy lockdown for 18 months? Isn't China already lifting restrictions in the face of a slowing growth rate? When will we really hit "the peak"?

I don't know any of the answers btw.

 

[Bozza]

This may sound barmy as I guess nobody wants to catch it. But it just seems inevitable it will get many of us before summer. With a vaccine over a year away we're not going to have the UK under social restriction quarantine till early next year.

People who are continuing to refute the exponential nature of this would do well to read this: https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/10/simple-math-alarming-answers-covid-19/

A copy-and-paste of a few paragraphs for those who can't be arsed to click:

"Much of the current discourse on — and dismissal of — the Covid-19 outbreak focuses on comparisons of the total case load and total deaths with those caused by seasonal influenza. But these comparisons can be deceiving, especially in the early stages of an exponential curve as a novel virus tears through an immunologically naïve population.

"As of March 8, about 500 cases of Covid-19 had been diagnosed in the U.S. Given the substantial underdiagnosis at present due to limitations in testing for the coronavirus, let’s say there are 2,000 current cases, a conservative starting bet.

We can expect a doubling of cases every six days, according to several epidemiological studies. Confirmed cases may appear to rise faster (or slower) in the short term as diagnostic capabilities are ramped up (or not), but this is how fast we can expect actual new cases to rise in the absence of substantial mitigation measures.

That means we are looking at about 1 million U.S. cases by the end of April; 2 million by May 7; 4 million by May 13; and so on...

At a 10% hospitalization rate, all hospital beds in the U.S. will be filled by about May 10. And with many patients requiring weeks of care, turnover will slow to a crawl as beds fill with Covid-19 patients.

If I’m wrong by a factor of two regarding the fraction of severe cases, that only changes the timeline of bed saturation by six days (one doubling time) in either direction. If 20% of cases require hospitalization, we run out of beds by about May 4. If only 5% of cases require it, we can make it until about May 16, and a 2.5% rate gets us to May 22."

 

[Bozza]

Which prompts me to ask, on here, a question I've had in my mind for a while - when does living with the threat of covid-19 become the "new normal"?

A vaccine will take 12-18 months to produce and may not be effective against every mutation. I doubt a cure is even on the radar. Will the world spend 18 months with restricted travel, no sports or big gatherings, working from home and no handshakes? Can Italy lockdown for 18 months? Isn't China already lifting restrictions in the face of a slowing growth rate? When will we really hit "the peak"?

I don't know any of the answers btw.

That's kinda what I was getting at. I can't see much beyond two outcomes...

1. This absolutely rips through the population in short order (see my post above). For the 80% of mild cases, there's nothing much to see here - well, other than losing a few family, friends and neighbours. For those on the health frontline, and those who may need to use it - well, I don't like to imagine based on the tip-of-the-iceberg going on in Italy right now.

2. Through some radical medium-term lifestyle changes (China-light) we manage to work our way to the salvation of a viable vaccine. Lots of people lost along the way, but in a less frightful manner than the above.

 

[wellquickwoody]

I suspect he is busy penning a Churchillesque speech he’ll deliver when deaths pass a mark such as 100 (They won’t).

Are you for real? Could you be the exception to Darwin’s theory?

It is said you should feel guilty for exploiting the stupid, but for you I will would make an exception. Fancy a bet?

 

[Hugo Rune]

Are you for real? Could you be the exception to Darwin’s theory?

It is said you should feel guilty for exploiting the stupid, but for you I will would make an exception. Fancy a bet?

You are very funny. Xx

 

[Nobby]

The transmission rate on that cruise is also very interesting, about 25% caught the virus in a closed environment where you’d expect it to spread a lot more than on land. Yet, the government are talking about an 80% infection rate and are clearly scaring the bejesus out of some people.

After Bojo has worked his daily 4 or 5 hours, I suspect he is busy penning a Churchillesque speech he’ll deliver when deaths pass a mark such as 100 (They won’t).

[emoji2359]
Why do you think that deaths will not pass 100?
Were you any good at Maths at school?

Expecting a “well they might do but....” answer

I agree about the Bor*s Churchillian speech though - Dom will be writing it

 

[wellquickwoody]

You are very funny. Xx

No, you made a statement that less than 100 will die of a Corona related issue in the UK, care to back it up?

 

[Nobby]

Are you for real? Could you be the exception to Darwin’s theory?

It is said you should feel guilty for exploiting the stupid, but for you I will would make an exception. Fancy a bet?

Hey I wanted a bet with him too!

 

[Triggaaar]

If you’re right, I guess, then I’ll see you in hell.

Blimey, that's a bit unnecessary.

I'm obviously one of the ones who've repeated my concerns about the virus. Although I wouldn't want to think of myself as scaremongering, perhaps I am and perhaps a bit of fear for us all is a good thing, if it makes us all wash our hands more and congregate less, which will save lives.

I also think we wouldn't be repeating our concerns if it weren't for those telling us 'FFS it's only a cold'.