Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Driver8]

The news from South Korea genuinely is positive though...

"South Korea's top public health official hopes that the country has already gone through the worst of the novel coronavirus outbreak that has infected thousands inside the country.

"We are hoping that we have passed the peak, taking the numbers into consideration, and cautiously expecting we have passed the peak," South Korean Health Minister Park Neunghoo said in an exclusive interview with CNN."

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/03/09/asia/south-korea-coronavirus-intl-hnk/index.html

Their solution appeared to be test everyone and isolate those who tested positive. That doesn’t appear to be our plan (if we even have one beyond “wash your hands”).

I can’t imagine that they would have let in unrestricted flights from Northern Italy like we do.

 

[Dorset Seagull]

Load of Woopsies. Still, at least they'll be okay for bog roll for the next few years. In the meantime i'll just keep wiping my arse with my neighbour's post.

Mind you don’t get splinters

 

[peterward]

Their solution appeared to be test everyone and isolate those who tested positive. That doesn’t appear to be our plan (if we even have one beyond “wash your hands”).

I can’t imagine that they would have let in unrestricted flights from Northern Italy like we do.

Dont see much leadership from Johnson at all, it will all be reactive.

 

[Mellotron]

A European Union expert said the UK had only a "few days" to implement measures to prevent an outbreak like Italy's, which is the worst outside China with 7,375 confirmed cases and 366 deaths.

Sergio Brusin from the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control told the BBC's Victoria Derbyshire programme: "The UK is in the same situation Italy was two weeks ago."

Are they wrong or simply scare mongering?

Why would you assume we aren't implementing measures?

 

[Bozza]

Their solution appeared to be test everyone and isolate those who tested positive. That doesn’t appear to be our plan (if we even have one beyond “wash your hands”).

I can’t imagine that they would have let in unrestricted flights from Northern Italy like we do.

They're not actually testing many people in absolute terms. South Korea has a population of 51m and that piece states that they have the capability to process 15,000 tests per day. It would take over 9 years to test everyone, if everyone was tested once and only once, so it's likely they are still working on contact tracing of known cases but being incredibly vigorous with all contacts.

 

[atomised]

COBRA meeting done and staying in containment phase. Looks like Saturday will be on

 

[Mellotron]

COBRA meeting done and staying in containment phase. Looks like Saturday will be on

Excellent.

 

[peterward]

Why would you assume we aren't implementing measures?

Im not assuming, i'm going via what the press is reporting and that's that after todays cobra meeting we arent going to be moving to delay phase (social restrictions of some kind), but staying exactly as we are in the current containment phase with no social restriction.

I do assume, however, the expert from the European centre of disease control is suggesting that in "their" opinion we have a couple of days to do this, if we dont want to find ourselves in the Italian situation within a couple of weeks.

The government guided by scientists are themselves saying that widespread further spread of transmission is "inevitable". If that is the science? why would you sit on your hands today. Its all reactive.

 

[Solid at the back]

Stupid, pathetic decision - if we know its goig to spread significantly, then whyy the FACK ARE WE NOT ACTING NOW?

 

[A1X]

Why would you assume we aren't implementing measures?

Didn't the PM last week claim one of the ways to deal with this would be to "take it on the chin"?

 

[lawros left foot]

Personally, I’m going to wrap myself in clingfilm.






Not because of covid-19, just because I fancy it.

 

[peterward]

Didn't the PM last week claim one of the ways to deal with this would be to "take it on the chin"?

has he got a clear plan? or just bumbling along, blown around by events?

 

[atomised]

Minutes away now from the daily update on positive tests. I'm expecting up to around 350

 

[Driver8]

They're not actually testing many people in absolute terms. South Korea has a population of 51m and that piece states that they have the capability to process 15,000 tests per day. It would take over 9 years to test everyone, if everyone was tested once and only once, so it's likely they are still working on contact tracing of known cases but being incredibly vigorous with all contacts.

Ok, not testing everyone but everyone likely to be a victim. 196,000 tests to our 20,000 odd.

 

[peterward]

Personally, I’m going to wrap myself in clingfilm.






Not because of covid-19, just because I fancy it.

Is it a cling film wrapping fetish, or Plan B because you couldnt source adequate amounts of bog roll to wrap yourself in?

 

[A1X]

has he got a clear plan? or just bumbling along, blown around by events?

Hang on...

 

[The Clamp]

I work with a highly vulnerable group of people. If we get a breakout at work I’ll still have to be there, no self isolating for us. But we are not panicking. Why? Because we have a solid plan in place for just such events. It’s tried and tested and didn’t involve any panic.
We’ll deal with it and we’ll press on. What choice do you have?

 

[beorhthelm]

The government guided by scientists are themselves saying that widespread further spread of transmission is "inevitable". If that is the science? why would you sit on your hands today. Its all reactive.

sitting on hands would help reduce contact and slow spread.

 

[beorhthelm]

Ok, not testing everyone but everyone likely to be a victim. 196,000 tests to our 20,000 odd.

we have pretty much the same approach, test those reporting symptoms and recent contacts. we've just had far fewer reporting, so fewer to test.

 

[dingodan]

Stupid, pathetic decision - if we know its goig to spread significantly, then whyy the FACK ARE WE NOT ACTING NOW?

Behavioral science.

Have you ever seen those adverts for sensodyne toothpaste?

The logic goes something like this, "I've been using sensodyne toothpaste, and I haven't been having any sensitivity. Guess I don't need to use sensodyne toothpaste..."

In this context it would go something like this, "We've stopped going out, stopped social gatherings, yet there is no widespread infection taking place, guess we can all go back to normal now then..."

In a perverse kind of way, you will need the spread to increase and you will need people to see a need for the action, before you take it, otherwise people will be half arsed about it, which is the last thing you want. You do it as late as possible, for as short a time as possible, and it is most effective. If you do it as early as possible, for as long as possible, it is least effective.

Once you understand that this is the logic, you also realize that actually deciding for yourself to start restricting your movements and social interactions would actually be a good idea on an individual level, even if giving that advice on a community level would risk it's overall effectiveness.