Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Nathan]

Cheltenham festival now in doubt, going to have a big impact on sporting fixtures through the spring.

Cheltenham confident festival will not be stopped by coronavirus

https://www.racingpost.com/news/che...val-will-not-be-stopped-by-coronavirus/425011

 

[dingodan]

To be fair to the media this is a massive story. The numbers of people infected needs to be reduced and the only way of doing that is shutting everything down. That's a pretty big story.
It doesn't appear to be killing the young and healthy yet but who knows when/if it mutated. Just because the death rate is low now it's not something the world should shrug their shoulders at. Old and sick people matter also.
It's looking like you can get it more than once also which is pretty major.
I don't work for the WHO but I have been doing football accumulators for years so appreciate how numbers can rapidly increase.

Exactly.

[MENTION=59]Mental Lental[/MENTION] It's not just an "old codger" if it's your Dad is it.

It's not an overreaction just because the death rate appears relatively low.

If this thing infects most people, having up to a 4% chance of death (while hospital capacity remains managable) is not "fine". If you are old then you can up that chance of death. If hospitals get overwhelmed, you can up it some more. They are already talking about rationing care, chosing who to try to save and who to let die in their homes. Denial of care won't be limited to those with the virus but also other seriously ill patients.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...sive-care-flu-wise-men-protocol-a9361916.html

This is not a similar situation to regular flu, that comparison is helpful only for giving people a reassuring but false sense of security.

I am not saying people should panic. I'm saying people shouldn't brush this off as unjustified hype.

It isn't.

 

[beorhthelm]

The Stock Market are not liking this, yet another big fall this morning, ....we could be tipped back in to a recession very quickly if this keeps up.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/topics/c9qdqqkgz27t/ftse-100

recession this year is a certainty, with attention diverted and large problems with supplies yet to filter through. only question will be if its a short technical recession or impacts the economy more deeply.

 

[dingodan]

In the UK it is estimated that an average of 600 people a year die from complications of flu. In some years it is estimated that this can rise to over 10,000 deaths (see for example this UK study from 2013 , which estimated over 13,000 deaths resulting from flu in 2008-09).

https://vk.ovg.ox.ac.uk/vk/influenza-flu

"A leaked government document has suggested up to 500,000 people could die from coronavirus if the disease is able to infect up to 80 per cent of the country.

While the Department of Health and Social Care said it did not expect the scenario to happen, the briefing to ministers, leaked to The Sun, said “the reasonable worst case” was for four fifths of the country to succumb to the virus.

The document by the National Security Communications Team warned: “The current planning assumption is that 2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a fatality.”

This could mean as many as 500,000 Britons could die."

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...60271.html?utm_source=taboola&utm_medium=Feed

 

[Triggaaar]

While the Department of Health and Social Care said it did not expect the scenario to happen, the briefing to ministers, leaked to The Sun, said “the reasonable worst case” was for four fifths of the country to succumb to the virus.

The document by the National Security Communications Team warned: “The current planning assumption is that 2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases will result in a fatality.”

This could mean as many as 500,000 Britons could die."[/I]

The UK population is estimated at 67.9 million. 80% of that = 54.3 million.
2-3 percent of that = between 1.1 and 1.6 million. Where is the 500k from?

 

[Kalimantan Gull]

The UK population is estimated at 67.9 million. 80% of that = 54.3 million.
2-3 percent of that = between 1.1 and 1.6 million. Where is the 500k from?

2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases. So assume that 80% get it, and a third of those show symptoms, 3% of those die = 500k. Thats how I intrepret it anyway.

 

[Triggaaar]

2-3 per cent of symptomatic cases. So assume that 80% get it, and a third of those show symptoms

Is there any evidence to suggest that only one third of people with the virus show any symptoms?

 

[Deportivo Seagull]

Is there any evidence to suggest that only one third of people with the virus show any symptoms?

I doubt it in that it seems difficult enough to identify those that have it as well as those that die from it. A case in point is Iran where cases are 245 and deaths are 26 giving a mortality rate of 10.6% where elsewhere it seems around the 2-3% mark. A reasonable deduction would be that there are a shed load more cases in Iran than advertised. For that mortality rate there should be around 850 cases. Saying that I have no idea on health care in Iran and their ability to treat conditions such as pneumonia etc.


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[knocky1]

Cheltenham confident festival will not be stopped by coronavirus

https://www.racingpost.com/news/che...val-will-not-be-stopped-by-coronavirus/425011

I hope so.

Just in cast they've opened a book on the chances https://betting.betfair.com/horse-r...-market-amid-coronavirus-fears-260220-51.html

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

So Trump has put Mike Pence, a creationist who doesn't have a clue about science, in charge of his Covid 19 response team.

Well that's a huge relief

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

So Trump has put Mike Pence, a creationist who doesn't have a clue about science, in charge of his Covid 19 response team.

Well that's a huge relief

 

[Lyndhurst 14]

A few prayer vigils and burning some chicken feathers will soon sort this pesky virus out

 

[Horton's halftime iceberg]

A few prayer vigils and burning some chicken feathers will soon sort this pesky virus out

As long as they do not start burning people and blaming minority groups.

 

[Papa Lazarou]

So Trump has put Mike Pence, a creationist who doesn't have a clue about science, in charge of his Covid 19 response team.

Well that's a huge relief

Who doesn't BELIEVE in science. It's worse.

 

[AZ Gull]

CDC confirms the first US coronavirus case of 'unknown' origin. The California patient was hospitalized for days before getting tested

 

[Bozza]

CDC confirms the first US coronavirus case of 'unknown' origin. The California patient was hospitalized for days before getting tested

I've been assuming it's "in the wild" here too, we just don't know it yet.

 

[Icy Gull]

I've been assuming it's "in the wild" here too, we just don't know it yet.

Has to be

 

[Dick Head]

 

[DumLum]

I've been assuming it's "in the wild" here too, we just don't know it yet.

They started testing people with "Flu" yesterday for COVID-19 in 100 uk sites. Those results will be interesting.

 

[Triggaaar]

They started testing people with "Flu" yesterday for COVID-19 in 100 uk sites. Those results will be interesting.

How long does the test take? Apparently only 6 places in the whole of the US can test for Covid-19, it's quite good if we've got 100 sites.