Main Coronavirus / Covid-19 Discussion Thread

[Poojah]

1 in 68 per day seems feasible to me, just now. More people I know have had positive PCR tests today, added to those who’ve very recently acquired it like me.

What’s the latest scientific thinking on reinfection with Omicron, as that appeared to be one of the initial concerns mooted (alongside it’s insane transmissibility). Because at that kind of run rate, everyone’s going to have had it by the end of February, but the risk of reinfection (or more specifically serious, symptomatic infection) is going to massively dictate what happens from there on in.

If serious reinfection risk is low then whilst the first quarter of next year looks potentially very challenging, we should in theory be in a much better place come the spring. If however, it just remains cyclically in community transmission regardless of vaccination status or previous infection, then that’s a whole different world of bother, isn’t it?

I would hope, given the suggestion that 3 jabs equate to 90% protection against serious infection that it will be more like the former, but either way it’s a potentially very big deal.

 

[dazzer6666]

What’s the latest scientific thinking on reinfection with Omicron, as that appeared to be one of the initial concerns mooted (alongside it’s insane transmissibility). Because at that kind of run rate, everyone’s going to have had it by the end of February, but the risk of reinfection (or more specifically serious, symptomatic infection) is going to massively dictate what happens from there on in.

If serious reinfection risk is low then whilst the first quarter of next year looks potentially very challenging, we should in theory be in a much better place come the spring. If however, it just remains cyclically in community transmission regardless of vaccination status or previous infection, then that’s a whole different world of bother, isn’t it?

I would hope, given the suggestion that 3 jabs equate to 90% protection against serious infection that it will be more like the former, but either way it’s a potentially very big deal.

It's increasingly evident it's incredibly transmissible....the absolute key appears to be understanding how this will translate into serious illness/death. Early signs from SA are encouraging but it's still too early to call. If we don't see material rises in hospitalisations by the end of the next couple of weeks - we'll potentially be in a position where a binary decision becomes closer of either full lockdown, or letting it rip as an endemic, not serious for most illness. Experts loudly proclaiming either way, with their spouting being swallowed by the press and headlined, isn't at all helpful IMO - the 'could', 'if', 'might' etc included in the articles is lost behind the headlines

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

It's increasingly evident it's incredibly transmissible....the absolute key appears to be understanding how this will translate into serious illness/death. Early signs from SA are encouraging but it's still too early to call. If we don't see material rises in hospitalisations by the end of the the next couple of weeks - we'll potentially be in a position where a binary decision becomes closer of either full lockdown, or letting it rip as an endemic, not serious for most illness. Experts loudly proclaiming either way, with their spouting being swallowed by the press and headlined, isn't at all helpful IMO - the 'could', 'if', 'might' etc included in the articles is lost behind the headlines

I just heard a clip of Dan Hodges- a complete accident I can assure you.

If there at 200k cases and only 10 in hospital these are not great numbers.

He also said something along the lines of the governments actions don’t make sense, it’s either as bad as being made and the restrictions are useless and they need to present the data/evidence to the nation - if Whitty told MPs the NHS will collapse in 4 weeks we haven’t had that warning since this started.

Or it’s not and there’s another reason for these restrictions.

 

[Poojah]

I just heard a clip of Dan Someone - a complete accident I can assure you.

If there at 200k cases and only 10 in hospital these are not great numbers.

He also said something along the lines of the governments actions don’t make sense, it’s either as bad as being made and the restrictions are useless and they need to present the data/evidence to the nation - if Whitty told MPs the NHS will collapse in 4 weeks we haven’t had that warning since this started.

Or it’s not and there’s another reason for these restrictions.

My job remit is global and I speak to people from countries all around the world several times a day, and it’s been customary to ask how things are in their respective nations (we’ve generally had it a lot easier than most these last 6 months).

As far as I can tell, things are actually pretty good in most places and whenever I’ve mentioned our Omicron related woes the general response has been “the what now?”. Either we’re way ahead of the game and everyone else is getting it spectacularly wrong or there is indeed something else at play. And when has this most infernal cabinet been ahead of the game on anything (with the exception of the initial vaccine rollout, I grant you)?

It’s most peculiar.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

My job remit is global and I speak to people from countries all around the world several times a day, and it’s been customary to ask how things are in their respective nations (we’ve generally had it a lot easier than most these last 6 months).

As far as I can tell, things are actually pretty good in most places and whenever I’ve mentioned our Omicron related woes the general response has been “the what now?”. Either we’re way ahead of the game and everyone else is getting it spectacularly wrong or there is indeed something else at play. And when has this most infernal cabinet been ahead of the game on anything (with the exception of the initial vaccine rollout, I grant you)?

It’s most peculiar.

It’s really Weird, Europe is being pounded by Delta still due to dragging out the exit wave so maybe they are concentrating on that.

The Wife is in Vegas at the moment and she said it’s completely normal, they ask people to wear mask in CVS and that’s about it, they don’t seem concerned it the slightest - It’s a Dem state as well.

I’m also not sure why we’ve suddenly gone from the tests announced each day are the numbers to we have 200k cases, I understand when they announce 50k cases a day there was obviously more, but it wasn’t announced as a separate number.

 

[dazzer6666]

DT Extract...............

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/20...re-covid-delta-variant-two-vaccine-jabs-give/

Britain's omicron wave may be no worse than a flu pandemic, an expert has said, as the first major study into the new variant suggests it is less severe than delta.

The first real-world study looking at 78,000 omicron cases in South Africa found the risk of hospitalisation is 29 per cent lower compared with the Wuhan strain, and 23 per cent lower than delta, with vaccines holding up well.

Far fewer people have also needed intensive care from omicron, with just five per cent of cases admitted to ICU compared to 22 per cent of delta patients, the study shows.

Professor Robert Dingwall, a government Covid adviser, from Nottingham Trent University, said it was clear from the South African data that panic was unjustified. Speaking in a personal capacity, Prof Dingwall said: “The omicron situation seems to be increasingly absurd. There is obviously a lot of snobbery about South African science and medicine but their top people are as good as any you would find in a more universally developed country.“They clearly don’t feel that the elite panic over here is justified, even allowing for the demographic differences in vulnerability – which are probably more than cancelled by the higher vaccination rate. "My gut feeling is that omicron is very much like the sort of flu pandemic we planned for – a lot of sickness absence from work in a short period, which will create difficulties for public services and economic activity, but not of such a severity as to be a big problem for the NHS and the funeral business.”

 

[beorhthelm]

the question i have is if NHS is close to collapse, why are there no contingency measures being put in play? Are they opening up emergency wards, setting up temporary wards, diverting non-covid to private sector? as far as i can see actions do not meet the claims.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

the question i have is if NHS is close to collapse, why are there no contingency measures being put in play? Are they opening up emergency wards, setting up temporary wards, diverting non-covid to private sector? as far as i can see actions do not meet the claims.

They are moving people of the NHS for jabs.

Jenny Harris says this is the biggest threat so far, a mask on the bus isn’t going to stop that.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Does anyone think it's actually physically possible to reach the kind of infection numbers they're talking about?

The models never know when to predict the peak, I suspect they don't know how to factor in social dynamics. What we've seen before is covid runs out of people to infect and then falls sharply. 1M infections a day is cloud cuckoo land!

the question i have is if NHS is close to collapse, why are there no contingency measures being put in play? Are they opening up emergency wards, setting up temporary wards, diverting non-covid to private sector? as far as i can see actions do not meet the claims.

Also.

We have 10k older people bed blocking due to the lack of care home staff

Surely they could have used the nightingales for that.

Get the care staff who didn’t have jabs back

 

[crodonilson]

Another press conference now called for this evening with BJ and Chris Whitty.

Announcing Plan C?

 

[pb21]

The first real-world study looking at 78,000 omicron cases in South Africa found the risk of hospitalisation is 29 per cent lower compared with the Wuhan strain, and 23 per cent lower than delta, with vaccines holding up well.

Far fewer people have also needed intensive care from omicron, with just five per cent of cases admitted to ICU compared to 22 per cent of delta patients, the study shows

There's positive and negative bits in this article.

The negative is that it's not a significant reduction in hospitalisations consisering how quick it seems to be spreading amongst the general population.

The positive is that there is a significant, 75% reduction, in serious cases, but again if four times as many people get it in a given time period...

 

[dazzer6666]

There's positive and negative bits in this article.

The negative is that it's not a significant reduction in hospitalisations consisering how quick it seems to be spreading amongst the general population.

The positive is that there is a significant, 75% reduction, in serious cases, but again if four times as many people get it in a given time period...

Yes

 

[Yoda]

The negative is that it's not a significant reduction in hospitalisations consisering how quick it seems to be spreading amongst the general population.

Don't have an account with the Telegraph to read, but does it state whether the rises are covid cases or incidental cases where they are being admitted for other reasons but still testing positive? (which with such a perceived high prevalence you would expect).

This kind of data is now really the most crucial in determining the severity of this variant.

 

[Kinky Gerbil]

Don't have an account with the Telegraph to read, but does it state whether the rises are covid cases or incidental cases where they are being admitted for other reasons but still testing positive? (which with such a perceived high prevalence you would expect).

This kind of data is now really the most crucial in determining the severity of this variant.

https://12ft.io/

 

[Hugo Rune]

Expected Government Headline:

Omicron hospitalisations have risen by 40%, get your booster as soon as you can.

Fact-check:

Omicron hospitalisations have risen from 10 to 14 over the last few days.

Yes - we need to wait a few weeks to get more data but at circa 200k infections per day, Omicron is so far proving very ineffective at putting people in hospital.

 

[Hugo Rune]

My word. 78,610 UK Covid cases reported today. That’s scary.

 

[loz]

My word. 78,610 UK Covid cases reported today. That’s scary.

Cases gone up 19%….testing gone up 15%, deaths dropping, yes I know there is a lag.

 

[pb21]

Cases gone up 19%….testing gone up 15%, deaths dropping, yes I know there is a lag.

Has the number of tests increased because of increased capacity or because of increased demand?

 

[Hugo Rune]

Cases gone up 19%….testing gone up 15%, deaths dropping, yes I know there is a lag.

Yes. 7 day death rate down 5%. Not a popular view but I hope the majority of those 78k infections are Omicron.

 

[dazzer6666]

Cases gone up 19%….testing gone up 15%, deaths dropping, yes I know there is a lag.

Yep - positivity rate 5.9% today, 5.6% last Thursday.........not a huge increase at all